堆放参数对瑞安矿煤堆自燃风速的影响

为确定瑞安矿煤堆自燃的环境风速,提高煤堆自燃的预判能力,使用COMSOL Multiphysics 5.0数值仿真软件,开展了5个不同尺寸分别在孔隙率0.2~0.6和环境风速0.05 m/s~13 m/s条件下堆放180 d的自热-自燃过程数值模拟。结果表明,煤堆自燃风速范围因孔隙率和堆放参数不同而异,孔隙率越小煤堆的自燃风速范围越宽,且最小、最易、最大自燃风速与孔隙率之间具有幂函数关系;影响煤堆最小、最易、最大自燃风速显著的参数分别为顶宽、底宽、高度、角度和孔隙率、孔隙率、高度和孔隙率,并构建了三个自燃风速的合理解算方程。     

多元线性回归-分光光度法测定电镀排放废水中重金属

采用多元线性回归-分光光度法进行电镀排放废水中Cr³⁺、Ni²⁺、Zn²⁺的同时测定研究。以4-(2-吡啶偶氮)间苯二酚(PAR)为显色剂,探索了同时测定模拟电镀废水中Cr³⁺、Ni²⁺、Zn²⁺的实验方法,建立多元线性回归模型。根据实际电镀排放废水中Cr³⁺、Ni²⁺、Zn²⁺的质量浓度分布调查结果,设计了测定较低和较高浓度范围2种模型,分别对应不同水质波动程度的电镀企业废水,前者浓度范围设置基本覆盖大多数实际电镀排放废水中Cr³⁺、Ni²⁺、Zn²⁺的浓度,且具有较高精度。测定浓度范围较小模型对应水质波动较小的电镀排放废水,模型中Cr³⁺、Ni²⁺、Zn²⁺的质量浓度分别为0.32～0.44、0.32～0.50、0.72～0.84 mg/L,平均相对误差MR...     

宜宾-重庆段川江高阶地物质来源的定量分析--判别分析在重矿物分析中的应用

川江倒流的问题可以利用川江高阶地的物质来源进行佐证,如果川江上段高阶地的物质来源于东部而不是西部,则川江就有倒流的可能性。重矿物组合可以部分地表征物质来源。对宜宾－重庆段川江高阶地的重矿物种类及其含量做了判别分析,得到了比较理想的结果。将金沙江和重庆以下的重矿物组合特征作为已知的两个分类,判别重庆以上（包括宜宾和重庆的样品）的高阶地重矿物组合特征究竟应该属于哪种类型。以重矿物种类和含量为变量进行分析的回代结果正确率分别为93.1%和96.6%。川江高阶地重矿物组合与金沙江差异较大,估计当时该阶地物质来源与金沙江关系不大。     

基于Logistic回归模型的呼伦贝尔草原火险预测研究

目前国内外还没有对不同火险条件下草原火险时空发生概率的研究,而这方面研究对草原火灾管理对策和防火救助应急预案的制定具有重要意义.根据呼伦贝尔草原火灾统计月报表和相关气象、社会经济资料,利用Logistic回归模型建立草原火险预测模型,对草原火险进行了空间上的预测.结果表明,日平均风速、日降水量对草原火险影响较大. 以2005年所有火灾案例对草原火险预测模型进行检验,研究表明,该预测方法具有较高的可靠性,可为火灾管理和减灾决策的制定提供指导.     

阴/非离子化学剂与糖脂类生物剂复配对煤尘润湿效果影响

为解决糖脂类生物表面活性剂润湿性能差的问题,选取4种化学表面活性剂和3种生物表面活性剂,通过对化学表面活性剂与生物表面活性剂的溶液的表面张力、沉降速度和红外光谱分析,研究化学表面活性剂与生物表面活性剂复配对煤尘润湿效果的影响。研究结果表明：化学表面活性剂与生物表面活性剂复配对煤尘的润湿性存在增强作用,且化学表面活性剂润湿性能越强,复配后对煤尘润湿性的增强作用越好,当二者为阴/非组合时这种增效作用更强,当质量分数达到一定值时,影响减弱。单体与复配的表面张力的线性回归模型表明,在对复配表面张力的影响中化学表面活性剂占主要影响因素。其中化学表面活性剂SDS与生物表面活性剂槐糖脂复配时增效作用最好,表面张力最低为23.04 mN/m,煤尘沉降速度最快为7.70 mg/s。     

Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/-9.2)ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation.     

降水pH值的支持向量回归预测模型构建

将支持向量回归用于降水pH值预测模型的构建,结果表明,该模型具有较好的稳定性和较高的预测精度,降水的pH值主要受大气中碱性离子浓度的影响,起主导作用的是碱性离子的中和作用;其预测结果优于多元线性回归、主成分回归、偏最小二乘回归和投影寻踪回归等模型.     

外卖配送公共交通违法行为影响因素分析

通过问卷调查研究外卖配送公共交通违法行为影响因素，将外卖配送员分为曾经发生过和未发生过公共交通违法行为2组样本。通过Logistic回归对比分析，发现影响外卖配送员是否会发生公共交通违法行为的因素为平均每月送餐收入和平均每单配送距离；接着对其中发生过公共交通违法行为的1组样本，运用灰色关联分析法判断外卖配送员发生公共交通违法行为的主要驱动因素是平均每日接单数量、平均每月送餐收入以及平均每单配送时长，并根据影响因素提出了解决该问题的针对性长期建议。     

Pedestrians under influence (PUI) crashes: Patterns from correspondence regression analysis

Introduction: Alcohol-related impairment is a key contributing factor in traffic crashes. However, only a few studies have focused on pedestrian impairment as a crash characteristic. In Louisiana, pedestrian fatalities have been increasing. From 2010 to 2016, the number of pedestrian fatalities increased by 62%. A total of 128 pedestrians were killed in traffic crashes in 2016, and 34.4% of those fatalities involved pedestrians under the influence (PUI) of drugs or alcohol. Furthermore, alcohol-PUI fatalities have increased by 120% from 2010 to 2016. There is a vital need to examine the key contributing attributes that are associated with a high number of PUI crashes. Method: In this study, the research team analyzed Louisiana’s traffic crash data from 2010 to 2016 by applying correspondence regression analysis to identify the key contributing attributes and association patterns based on PUI involved injury levels. Results: The findings identified five risk clusters: intersection crashes at business/industrial locations, mid-block crashes on undivided roadways at residential and business/residential locations, segment related crashes associated with a pedestrian standing in the road, open country crashes with no lighting at night, and pedestrian violation related crashes on divided roadways. The association maps identified several critical attributes that are more associated with fatal and severe PUI crashes. These attributes are dark to no lighting, open country roadways, and non-intersection locations. Practical Applications: The findings of this study may be used to help design effective mitigation strategies to reduce PUI crashes.     

焊接作业厂房烟尘扩散规律研究与响应面分析

为研究焊接烟尘在多因素耦合作用下的扩散规律，通过在某小型焊接车间进行实验，将不同温度、湿度、风速3种影响因素进行耦合分析，测定不同环境条件下焊接车间内的烟尘浓度。采用Design Expert软件进行Box Behnken实验设计，构建电焊焊接烟尘浓度在3因素3水平条件下的二次回归响应曲面模型，通过研究二次模型实验因素间交互作用，了解二次项对烟尘浓度影响因素的排序，并简要分析电焊烟尘的治理措施。研究结果表明:温度、湿度、风速3个因素均为显著影响；二次项显示因素影响RhV（相对湿度与风速）>TRh（环境温度与相对湿度）>TV（环境温度与风速）。