Time allocation between work and recreation and the associated injury risks among young people

PROBLEM: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between overall risk of injury and time use patterns between work and active recreation among adolescents and young adults. METHODS: Using a representative sample of 9,795 Canadians aged 15-24 years, a multivariate logistic regression on the likelihood of any medically attended injury was conducted, including sociodemographic, individual, and time factors. RESULTS: Young people who engaged in a combination of high work and high activity hours were twice as likely to sustain a medically attended injury compared to those who worked low hours, but did not participate in any recreational activity. Those respondents who were not in school had a 43% increase in injury risk compared to full-time students. SUMMARY: Our findings suggest that injury risk was not a simple function of fatigue and cumulative exposure time. Our findings suggest the importance of considering time use and the associated injury risk tradeoffs. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Relevant to state and federal work safety policy makers, our findings suggest the importance of understanding where youth might otherwise spend their time if constraint were placed on their employment opportunities, and the associated injury risk tradeoffs must be taken into consideration.     

道路生态影响评价方法研究：以兰海高速公路为例

提出了将道路生态影响问题划分为3个尺度来进行评价,并根据不同尺度的生态特征采用不同的方法和指标,从而系统、定量的评价道路建设和运行所带来的生态影响.小尺度问题采用野外调查和样方对比的方法;中尺度问题主要依靠不同分辨率的遥感监测,辅之野外调研;大尺度问题主要依靠遥感和GIS结合进行分析.以兰海高速公路为例,运用该系统进行评价,取得了良好的结果.因此,该体系方法可以作为道路生态影响评价和研究的借鉴和参考.     

基于均匀分布的滑坡数值模拟参数取值概率研究--以甘肃黑方台黄土滑坡为例

针对数值模拟参数选取主观性强、量化难度大的问题,在高精度无人机地形数据的基础上,通过对11起滑坡案例进行了407组参数反演实验,对结果准确度定量评价后,得到基于Massflow数值软件关键参数λ0的分布范围,进而运用小样本极大似然估计理论,分析区间边界长度对反演精度的影响,最终提出基于均匀分布的参数取值概率模型,并选用案例验证该模型的准确性。结果表明:地形约束会导致反演过程中所需的内聚力减小,反演获得的11组最优λ0的极差和方差分别为0.29、0.01,在置信度为95%下,极大似然法得到区间边界估计长度仅为0.0998,表明参数λ收敛性较好;反演过程中质心滑动距离ψ准确度优于堆积面积重叠率η,在λ0±0.05的范围,参数估计区间内任意值对模拟误差影响较小,评价指标ψ、η与λ0对应案例的相对误差不超过15%;所选案例验证了在置信度为95%下,以反演得到的最优参数区间边界中点构建概率分布函数的可行性和准确性,研究方法可为单体滑坡数值模拟风险评价提供理论支撑。     

IS IT REALISTIC TO DEFINE A 100-YEAR DROUGHT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT?1

ABSTRACT: The concept of recurrence interval has been used for years in engineering designs. Can the same concept be applied to the drought analysis? This paper uses the plotting position method to define drought of various recurrence intervals based on stream-flow data. The method of truncation level was applied to the same data to examine the defined drought. Based on the method of truncation level, drought duration and its corresponding flow deficit were investigated. Eighteen flow gage stations from the Scioto River Basin in Ohio were selected for the study. The results show that flows of 100-year droughts using the plotting position method are practically nil. On the other hand, flows of droughts using the truncation method are gradually decreasing with an increase in truncation level, where flows of 95 percent are approximately equal to those of two-year droughts defined by the plotting position. It is also shown that there is a strung correlation between drought duration and deficit.     

基于模糊信息概率区间数的突发地质灾害降水因子评价研究

根据2010、2012两年云南省的820个地质灾害监测记录,基于模糊信息概率区间数的大小来开展降水量因子的评价研究。结果表明:突发地质灾害发生前10 d的单日降水量与灾害的关系很小,基本不能用于预警模型的建立和风险评价分析;累积降水量与突发地质灾害关系明显,特别是5~10 d的累积降水量预测概括率已达60%以上,可以用于突发地质灾害预警模型的建立和实际的监测预警;加衰减系数的有效累积降水量因子对突发地质灾害预测效果并无提升,与普通累积降水量因子相比并无优势。     

塔里木河下游输水间歇地下水埋深及化学组分的变化

基于适时监测资料,对塔里木河下游2006年11月第11次输水停止后地下水埋深和地下水化学特征时空变化进行分析总结,结果发现,塔里木河下游上段地下水埋深自2007年3月～2009年9月呈增加变化,地下水主要离子含量以增加变化为主;中段地下水埋深呈增加变化,但主要离子的含量以下降变化为主要特征;下段地下水埋深从2008年8月起呈减小变化趋势,地下水中主要离子含量随地下水位的上升而增加.在各断面距离输水河道远处,地下水埋深变化首先与断面距离水源地大西海子水库的远近有关,距离大西海子水库较近的英苏断面在输水间歇地下水埋深呈增加变化,但变化幅度不大;喀尔达伊断面地下水埋深在输水间歇以增加变化为主;阿拉干和考干断面地下水埋深在2008年8月以后才开始受到输水的影响,地下水化学特征的变化则表现出较复杂的变化.     

鄂尔多斯周缘地震带中长期地震趋势估计

本文基于一定的地震资料,分别应用最大熵原理、贝努里概型以及计算地震复发周期的经验关系式,对鄂尔多斯周缘地震带进行了中强地震的中长期地震趋势估计。     

基于UAHP的采空区稳定性模糊综合评判

为准确评判矿山采空区稳定性等级,通过分析采空区稳定性各影响因素,确定地质、水文、采空区几何参数、环境等4个2级指标为影响其稳定性的主要因素。运用层次分析法(AHP)并结合模糊数学理论,建立采空区稳定性2级模糊综合评判模型。用区间数表示评判结果,分析处理评判矩阵得到专家评判的相似度和差异度,进而获取专家评判的可信度,建立基于不确定型层次分析法(UAHP)的采空区稳定性模糊评判方法。实例计算结果表明:在Ⅰ级评判指标中,地质构造、周围开采影响、地下水活动程度、跨度对采空区稳定性影响较大;用该采空区的稳定性等级为Ⅱ级。用该方法能得出各影响因素的综合权重,准确评判采空区稳定性等级。     

Social and ecological factors affecting paternity allocation in American robins with overlapping broods

Factors that affect extra-pair mating in birds are likely to vary across the breeding season. Changing densities of active nests may alter the opportunities for extra-pair mating, and parental duties may alter a male’s opportunity to guard his mate from extra-pair mating. The latter affects species with multiple broods, where males care for fledglings from first nests while females initiate second nests. We studied a population of multi-brooded American robins (Turdus migratorius) to assess how seasonal changes in nesting density and changes in mate-guarding opportunity influenced paternity patterns over successive breeding attempts. Extra-pair paternity (EPP) occurred in 71.9% of broods and accounted for 48.1% of young. High nesting densities in the study population may explain the high overall rate of EPP, but seasonal variation in breeding density did not explain patterns of EPP among nests. Contrary to the predictions of the mate-guarding hypothesis, EPP did not increase in the second nests that followed successful first nests, and the percentage of extra-pair young in second nests did not decline as the overlap between successive nests increased. The fact that EPP was actually lower when the interval between clutches was shorter suggests that the sooner the males can assume sole care of first broods and allow their mates to renest (indicative of superior paternal quality), the more paternity they realize in the next nest. These results suggest that mate-guarding opportunity does not influence paternity in this population of American robins and that female robins may allocate paternity based on their assessment of male parental performance at first nests.