Laboratory longitudinal diffusion tests: 2. Parameter estimation by inverse analysis

This study focuses on the verification of test interpretations for different state analyses of diffusion experiments. Part 1 of this study identified that steady, quasi-steady and equilibrium state analyses for the through- and in-diffusion tests with solution reservoirs are generally feasible where the tracer is not highly sorptive. In Part 2 we investigate parameter identifiability in transient-state analysis of reservoir concentration variation using a numerical approach. For increased generality, the analytical models, objective functions and Jacobian matrix necessary for inverse analysis of transient-state data are reformulated using unified dimensionless parameters. In these dimensionless forms, the number of unknown parameters is reduced and a single dimensionless parameter represents the sorption property. The dimensionless objective functions are evaluated for individual test methods and parameter identifiability is discussed in relation to the sorption property. The effects of multiple minima and measurement error on parameter identifiability are also investigated. The main findings are that inverse problems for inlet and outlet reservoir concentration analyses are generally unstable and well-posed, respectively. Where the tracer is sorptive, the inverse problem for the inlet reservoir concentration analysis may have multiple minima. When insufficient measurement data is collected, multiple solutions may result and this should be taken into consideration when inversely analyzing data including that of inlet reservoir concentration. Verification of test interpretation by cross-checking different state analyses is feasible where the tracer is not highly sorptive. In an actual experiment, test interpretation validity is demonstrated through consistency between theory and practice for different state analyses.     

BP 神经网络模型在环境气象灾害预测中的应用研究--以湖南省为例

依据环境气象数据与自然灾害统计数据,建立BP神经网络模型,对湖南主要气象灾害（洪灾、旱灾、冰冻灾）及受灾经济损失进行实例预测,将在MATLAB7软件中的仿真结果与传统的多元线性回归模型分析结果进行比较和误差分析。结果表明,BP神经网络模型在洪灾、旱灾受灾率方面的预测效果和精度优于多元回归模型,而由于冰灾训练样本不足及经济损失与输入因子的线性相关程度高,在冰灾与受灾经济损失率方面稍逊于多元回归模型。     

Life history costs of olfactory status signalling in mice

Large body size confers a competitive advantage in animal contests but does not always determine the outcome. Here we explore the trade-off between short-term achievement of high social status and longer-term life history costs in animals which vary in competitive ability. Using laboratory mice, Mus musculus, as a model system, we show that small competitors can initially maintain dominance over larger males by increasing investment in olfactory status signalling (scent-marking), but only at the cost of reduced growth rate and body size. As a result they become more vulnerable to dominance reversals later in life. Our results also provide the first empirical information about life history costs of olfactory status signals. Received: 15 December 1999 / Revised: 6 June 2000 / Accepted: 24 June 2000     

Comparing aquatic risk assessment methods for the photosynthesis-inhibiting herbicides metribuzin and metamitron

Three different risk assessment procedures are described that aim to protect freshwater habitats from risks of the photosynthesis-inhibiting herbicides metribuzin and metamitron. These procedures are (1) the first-tier approach, based on standard toxicity tests and the application of an assessment factor, (2) the Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) approach, based on laboratory tests with a wider array of species and the application of a statistical model to calculate the HCx (the Hazardous Concentration for x% of the species), and (3) the model ecosystem approach, based on the evaluation of treatment-related effects in field enclosures. A comparison of the risk assessment procedures reveals that the first-tier approach is the most conservative for metamitron and metribuzin, and that HC5 values (and even HC10 values) based on acute EC50 values of algae and aquatic vascular plants may be used to derive maximum permissible concentrations for single applications. For both compounds these HC5 values were very similar to the ecological threshold concentrations in the enclosure studies. In contrast to model ecosystem experiments, however, HCx values based on lab toxicity tests do not provide information on the recovery potential of sensitive endpoints and on indirect effects, which may be important for regulatory decision-making. In the enclosure study, indirect effects of metribuzin on invertebrate populations were observed at an exposure concentration that was approximately 20 times lower than the corresponding HC5 value based on lab toxicity data for aquatic invertebrates.     

Incentive compatibility tests of choice experiment value elicitation questions

This paper uses laboratory experiments with induced values to address fundamental issues related to the incentive compatibility of choice experiment value elicitation questions. In particular, we compare two- versus three-option choice sets and the effect of using alternative provision rules, including one where the outcome is influenced by both participant and “regulator” votes. We find the overall proportion of choices that are inconsistent with induced preferences is rather low. However, there are more deviations from induced preferences for two-option choice sets, and for alternatives to a simple plurality vote implementation rule. A multinomial probit analysis of choices in tandem with a mixed logit welfare analysis suggests there is a statistically significant but modest degree of bias towards selecting the status quo option.     

高职电子电工多元化实践教学体系的建设

本文在介绍高职电子电工传统实践教学体系的基础上,分析了传统实践教学体系的不足.作者从建设虚拟实践环境并推向网络化、充分利用各类实践教学资源、鼓励学生走出课堂进行实际练兵三方面,对高职院校建立电子电工多元化实践教学体系进行了探讨.     

计算机杂草识别技术的研究现状

针对不同的杂草种类分别采取光谱分析法，颜色分析法，纹理分析法以及外形分析法来识别的特点，介绍了国外在该领域的研究应用进展，提出了计算机杂草识别技术的意义及在我国的发展前景。     

实验室信息管理系统(LIMS)在环境监测系统的应用探讨

简要介绍了实验室信息管理系统(LIMS)的功用与发展基础,重点提出了环境监测部门引入LIMS所应关注的内容以及监测站LIMS系统应该实现的功能,展望了环境监测部门成功运用LIMS系统后为监测站行政、业务、质量、数据等等管理将带来的巨大变化.     

亚洲地区环境监测实验室精度调查

为了解亚洲各国环境监测实验室监测分析数据的精度现状,提高实验室的监测技术水平,同时为了编制“亚洲地区环境监测实验室精度管理手册”提供依据,日本JICA（日本国际协力团）在亚洲开展了精度调查工作。文章报导了我国有关的33个环境监测实验室参加该精度调查的内容,和本次精度调查的结果及影响数据质量的因素分析,并与亚洲其它国家精度调查结果进行了比较。