Development and Operational Testing of a Super‐Ensemble Artificial Intelligence Flood‐Forecast Model for a Pacific Northwest River

Coastal catchments in British Columbia, Canada, experience a complex mixture of rainfall‐ and snowmelt‐driven contributions to flood events. Few operational flood‐forecast models are available in the region. Here, we integrated a number of proven technologies in a novel way to produce a super‐ensemble forecast system for the Englishman River, a flood‐prone stream on Vancouver Island. This three‐day‐ahead modeling system utilizes up to 42 numerical weather prediction model outputs from the North American Ensemble Forecast System, combined with six artificial neural network‐based streamflow models representing various slightly different system conceptualizations, all of which were trained exclusively on historical high‐flow data. As such, the system combines relatively low model development times and costs with the generation of fully probabilistic forecasts reflecting uncertainty in the simulation of both atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic dynamics. Results from operational testing by British Columbia's flood forecasting agency during the 2013‐2014 storm season suggest that the prediction system is operationally useful and robust.     

Calibration and Verification of SWMM for Low Impact Development

The Storm Water Management Model was used to simulate runoff and nutrient export from a low impact development (LID) watershed and a watershed using traditional runoff controls. Predictions were compared to observed values. Uncalibrated simulations underpredicted weekly runoff volume and average peak flow rates from the multiple subcatchment LID watershed by over 80%; the single subcatchment traditional watershed had better predictions. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Manning's n for swales, and initial soil moisture deficit were sensitive parameters. After calibration, prediction of total weekly runoff volume for the LID and traditional watersheds improved to within 12 and 5% of observed values, respectively. For the validation period, predicted total weekly runoff volumes for the LID and traditional watersheds were within 6 and 2% of observed values, respectively. Water quality simulation was less successful, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients >0.5 for both calibration and validation periods were only achieved for prediction of total nitrogen export from the LID watershed. Simulation of a 100‐year, 24‐h storm resulted in a runoff coefficient of 0.46 for the LID watershed and 0.59 for the traditional watershed. Results suggest either calibration is needed to improve predictions for LID watersheds or expanded look‐up tables for Green–Ampt infiltration parameter values that account for compaction of urban soil and antecedent conditions are needed.     

暴雨径流对非常规水源补给城市河流水质冲击研究

选择北运河流域典型非常规水源补给城市河流(凉水河)为研究对象,阐述暴雨径流对非常规水源补给城市河流水体物理化学特征的影响.结果表明,非暴雨期间,凉水河水体p H和DO平均值分别为7.67和3.88 mg·L-1;耗氧物质COD和氨氮(NH+4-N)平均质量浓度分别为47.41 mg·L-1和8.39 mg·L-1;富营养化元素总氮(TN)和总磷(TP)平均质量浓度分别为16.34 mg·L-1和1.45 mg·L-1.暴雨期间,雨水径流汇入收纳水体后,COD、NH+4-N、TP平均质量浓度明显上升,最高值分别达到108、14.24、3.02 mg·L-1.在空间分布上,COD、NH+4-N、TN和TP质量浓度变化趋势随土地利用类型变化特征趋于一致,从城镇区至农村区,均呈逐渐上升趋势.     

Can arbuscular mycorrhiza and fertilizer management reduce phosphorus runoff from paddy fields?

Our study sought to assess how much phosphorus (P) runoff from paddy fields could be cut down by fertilizer management and inoculation with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. A field experiment was conducted in Lalin River basin, in the northeast China: six nitrogen–phosphorus–potassium fertilizer levels were provided (0, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, and 100% of the recommended fertilizer supply), with or without inoculation with Glomus mosseae. The volume and concentrations of particle P (PP) and dissolved P (DP) were measured for each runoff during the rice growing season. It was found that the seasonal P runoff, including DP and PP, under the local fertilization was 3.7 kg/ha, with PP, rather than DP, being the main form of P in runoff water. Additionally, the seasonal P runoff dropped only by 8.9% when fertilization decreased by 20%; rice yields decreased with declining fertilization. We also found that inoculation increased rice yields and decreased P runoff at each fertilizer level and these effects were lower under higher fertilization. Conclusively, while rice yields were guaranteed arbuscular mycorrhizal inoculation and fertilizer management would play a key role in reducing P runoff from paddy fields.     

下凹式绿地在降雨径流控制中的应用研究

下凹式绿地具有蓄渗雨水、削减洪峰流量、净化雨水、防止土壤侵蚀等优点,且投资少,是一种能同时满足环境、生态、经济等多重效应的新型雨水利用措施;它的应用将有效缓解城市水资源匮乏和降雨地表径流造成的面源污染,同时能在一定程度上防止城市内涝.在介绍下凹式绿地对降雨径流控制的基础上,着重综述了下凹式绿地对雨水的蓄渗、净化作用及其设计方面的研究进展.     

混凝-超滤处理径流雨水效果——以华南地区为例

采用超滤膜(UF)为核心,以混凝作为预处理措施,对混凝-超滤工艺处理径流雨水的特性和膜通量变化与污染现象进行了研究,并对聚合硫酸铁(PFS)单独混凝、UF、PFS-UF组合工艺进行了对比;在优化混凝基础上,考察了混凝-UF对常规水质指标及总磷、生物可同化有机碳(AOC)、可生物降解溶解性有机碳(BDOC)等生物稳定性指标的去除效果.结果表明,混凝可有效去除TOC、UV254和总磷,混凝剂投加量与污染物去除近似呈线性关系.各混凝剂除浊效能均良好.综合考虑混凝处理效率与经济性,实验采用混凝方案为10 mg·L-1的PFS.PFS、UF、PFS-UF工艺除浊率均在95%以上,PFS和UF对TOC和UV254的去除较为接近,采用PFS-UF可提高去除率13%—15%;PFS-UF处理后雨水的AOC、BDOC分别降低至61.8μg·L-1、0.19 mg·L-1,残余总磷可降至3.8μg·L-1,雨水生物稳定性明显提高.PFS、UF和PFS-UF对颗粒物的去除率分别达80.5%、99.6%和99.9%.膜通量的变化和SEM图分析表明,混凝在一定程度上减轻了UF膜污染;形成的凝胶层具有一定整体强度,水力清洗时易于清除,膜通量恢复较好;但同时凝胶层的产生也增大了透膜阻力,PFS-UF工艺的周期内膜通量衰减有增加的趋势.     

Respective contributions of point and non-point sources of E. coli and enterococci in a large urbanized watershed (the Seine river, France)

Because the large rivers of the Seine watershed have a low microbiological water quality, the main sources of fecal contamination were investigated in the present study. The inputs of the point (wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) effluents) and non-point sources (surface runoff and soil leaching) of fecal bacteria were quantified for Escherichia coli and intestinal enteroccoci used as bacterial indicators. In order to assess the contamination through non-point sources, fecal indicators abundance was estimated in samples collected in small streams located in rural areas upstream from all point sources; these small rivers were characterized by the land use of their watershed. Bacterial indicator numbers were also measured in effluents of WWTPs, some using classical treatment (settling followed by activated sludge process) and some using an additional disinfection stage (UV irradiation). These data were used to estimate the respective importance of each type of source at the scale of the whole Seine river watershed taking into account the land use and the population density. It shows the predominant importance of the point sources of fecal indicator bacteria at the scale of the whole watershed. In a scenario in which activated sludge treatment would be complemented with UV in all WWTPs located in this watershed, the non-point sources of fecal indicator bacteria would be dominant.     

Assessment of the Water Quality and Ecosystem Health of the Great Barrier Reef (Australia): Conceptual Models

Run-off containing increased concentrations of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides from land-based anthropogenic activities is a significant influence on water quality and the ecologic conditions of nearshore areas of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia. The potential and actual impacts of increased pollutant concentrations range from bioaccumulation of contaminants and decreased photosynthetic capacity to major shifts in community structure and health of mangrove, coral reef, and seagrass ecosystems. A detailed conceptual model underpins and illustrates the links between the main anthropogenic pressures or threats (dry-land cattle grazing and intensive sugar cane cropping) and the production of key contaminants or stressors of Great Barrier Reef water quality. The conceptual model also includes longer-term threats to Great Barrier Reef water quality and ecosystem health, such as global climate change, that will potentially confound direct model interrelationships. The model recognises that system-specific attributes, such as monsoonal wind direction, rainfall intensity, and flood plume residence times, will act as system filters to modify the effects of any water-quality system stressor. The model also summarises key ecosystem responses in ecosystem health that can be monitored through indicators at catchment, riverine, and marine scales. Selected indicators include riverine and marine water quality, inshore coral reef and seagrass status, and biota pollutant burdens. These indicators have been adopted as components of a long-term monitoring program to enable assessment of the effectiveness of change in catchment-management practices in improving Great Barrier Reef (and adjacent catchment) water quality under the Queensland and Australian Governments’ Reef Water Quality Protection Plan.     

酸/碱改性香蒲生物炭对水中磷的去除及其机制研究

雨水径流中存在的磷污染问题严重威胁生态环境,而传统的雨水径流处理设施,如雨水花园、渗滤沟等,对磷的去除率较低且成本较高.以湿地中收割的香蒲为原材料,酸改性后制备的生物炭（TH7）的除磷效果非常好,明显优于碱改性生物炭（TOH7）：与原生物炭（T7）相比,酸改性生物炭大大提高了磷的去除效率,可从T7的65%提高至94%,而碱改性生物炭无除磷效果.TH7的表面孔隙发达,比表面积高达434.2m²·g^-1,对磷的吸附符合Freundlich模型和伪二级动力学模型,其吸附属于物理化学吸附,具体的机制为孔隙填充、表面化学沉淀、氢键结合.研究表明,以香蒲为原料制备的改性生物炭是一种效果优越的除磷吸附剂,可应用于植草沟、雨水花园等以填料为主要吸附层的径流处理设施中.     

皖南丘陵地区小流域氮素径流输出的动态变化

以亚热带北部皖南丘陵地区小流域定位实地观测为基础 ,研究了农林共存小流域氮素径流输出规律。发现小流域氮素径流输出季节性变化明显。降雨和施肥是影响这一变化的重要因子 ,模拟分析表明 ,它们与氮素输出之间具有很好的线性相关关系