Water resources vulnerability assessment in the Adriatic Sea region: the case of Corfu Island

Cross-border water resources management and protection is a complicated task to achieve, lacking a common methodological framework. Especially in the Adriatic region, water used for drinking water supply purposes pass from many different countries, turning its management into a hard task to achieve. During the DRINKADRIA project, a common methodological framework has been developed, for efficient and effective cross-border water supply and resources management, taking into consideration different resources types (surface and groundwater) emphasizing in drinking water supply intake. The common methodology for water resources management is based on four pillars: climate characteristics and climate change, water resources availability, quality, and security. The present paper assesses both present and future vulnerability of water resources in the Adriatic region, with special focus on Corfu Island, Greece. The results showed that climate change is expected to impact negatively on water resources availability while at the same time, water demand is expected to increase. Water quality problems will be intensified especially due to land use changes and salt water intrusion. The analysis identified areas where water resources are more vulnerable, allowing decision makers develop management strategies.     

Increasing extremes of heat and drought associated with recent severe wildfires in southern Greece

Mountains of the northern Mediterranean basin face two major threats under global change. Aridity and available fuel are both expected to increase because of climatic and land-use changes, increasing fire danger. There may already be signs of such effects in the case of the Pinus nigra and Abies cephalonica forests on Mt. Taygetos (southern Greece). We reconstructed climate (mid- to late-fire-season drought) using tree-rings for the last 150 years and compared it with the mountain’s fire history reconstructed from P. nigra fire scars. Seven, out of the ten, large fires Mt. Taygetos experienced were associated with below-normal precipitation (P) or above-normal maximum temperature (T _max). The largest fires occurred in late summer of 1879, 1944, 1998, and 2007. However, only the recent fires (1998 and 2007) had both low P and high T _max, also confirmed from long-term meteorological data. The synergy between climate and fuel availability may explain the very high intensity of 1998 and 2007 fires that burned mostly as stand-replacing crown fires. The other two large fire events (1879 and 1944) most likely occurred under reduced availability in burning fuel and were related to above-normal T _max. Our findings are among the first based on long-term and site-specific empirical data to support the prediction that Mediterranean mountainous areas will face a very large threat from wildfires in the twenty-first century, if socioeconomic changes leading to land abandonment and thus burning fuel accumulation are combined with the drought intensification projected for the region under global warming.     

A performance-based tabular approach for joint systematic improvement of risk control and resilience applied to telecommunication grid,gas network,and ultrasound localization system

Environment Systems and Decisions - Organizational and technical approaches have proven successful in increasing the performance and preventing risks at socio-technical systems at all scales....     

Predicting species dominance shifts across elevation gradients in mountain forests in Greece under a warmer and drier climate

Regional Environmental Change - The Mediterranean Basin is expected to face warmer and drier conditions in the future, following projected increases in temperature and declines in precipitation....     

Dissipation and runoff transport of metazachlor herbicide in rapeseed cultivated and uncultivated plots in field conditions

The environmental fate of metazachlor herbicide was investigated under field conditions in rapeseed cultivated and uncultivated plots, over a period of 225 days. The cultivation was carried out in silty clay soil plots with two surface slopes, 1 and 5 %. The herbicide was detectable in soil up to 170 days after application (DAA), while the dissipation rate was best described by first-order kinetics and its half-life ranged between 10.92 and 12.68 days. The herbicide was detected in the soil layer of 10–20 cm from 5 to 48 DAA, and its vertical movement can be described by the continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) in series model. Relatively low amounts of metazachlor (less than 0.31 % of the initial applied active ingredient) were transferred by runoff water. More than 80 % of the total losses were transferred at the first runoff event (12 DAA), with herbicide concentrations in runoff water ranging between 70.14 and 79.67 μg L⁻¹. Minor amounts of the herbicide (less than 0.07 % of the initial applied active ingredient) were transferred by the sediment, with a maximum concentration of 0.57 μg g⁻¹ (12 DAA), in plots with 5 % inclination. Finally, in rapeseed plants, metazachlor was detected only in the first sampling (28 DAA) at concentrations slightly higher than the limit of quantification; when in seeds, no residues of the herbicide were detected.

     

Forecasting hourly PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> concentration in Cyprus through artificial neural networks and multiple regression models: implications to local environmental management

In the present work, two types of artificial neural network (NN) models using the multilayer perceptron (MLP) and the radial basis function (RBF) techniques, as well as a model based on principal component regression analysis (PCRA), are employed to forecast hourly PM₁₀ concentrations in four urban areas (Larnaca, Limassol, Nicosia and Paphos) in Cyprus. The model development is based on a variety of meteorological and pollutant parameters corresponding to the 2-year period between July 2006 and June 2008, and the model evaluation is achieved through the use of a series of well-established evaluation instruments and methodologies. The evaluation reveals that the MLP NN models display the best forecasting performance with R ² values ranging between 0.65 and 0.76, whereas the RBF NNs and the PCRA models reveal a rather weak performance with R ² values between 0.37-0.43 and 0.33-0.38, respectively. The derived MLP models are also used to forecast Saharan dust episodes with remarkable success (probability of detection ranging between 0.68 and 0.71). On the whole, the analysis shows that the models introduced here could provide local authorities with reliable and precise predictions and alarms about air quality if used on an operational basis.