SAFUIT/UF6环境评价模型验证与应用

作为核燃料循环过程中一种兼具辐射危害和化学毒性的中间产物,UF6的泄漏事故,特别是事故的环境评价技术越来越受到人们的重视.SAFUIT/UF6是专门针对此类事故的环境评价模型,目前已经开展了初步的验证工作.根据1987年法国UF6释放实验条件,对SAFUIT/UF6模型计算结果进行了误差分析,并与HG-SYSTEM/UF6模型进行了对比.初步认为SAFUIT/UF6模型可准确地模拟UF6扩散.此外,SAFUIT/UF6模型在某设施核事故应急评价系统中也得到了应用.     

Modeling of non-point source pollution in a Mediterranean drainage basin

SWAT ver. 2000 was used to predict hydrographs, and sediment, nitrate and total phosphorus loadings from a 1349 km² mountainous/agricultural watershed in Northern Greece. The model was calibrated and verified using continuous meteorological data from eight stations within the drainage area, and runoff, sediment and nutrient concentrations measured at nine stations located within the main tributaries of the watershed, for the time period from May 1st, 1998 to January 31st, 2000. Model validation methodology and resulting input parameters appropriate for Mediterranean drainage basins are presented. Predicted by the model hydrographs, sedimentographs and pollutographs are plotted against observed values and show good agreement. Model performance is evaluated using the root mean square error computation and scattergrams of predicted versus observed data. The validated model is also used to test the effectiveness of three alternative cropping scenarios in reducing nutrient loadings from the agricultural part of the watershed. The study showed that this model, if properly validated, can be used effectively in testing management scenarios in Mediterranean drainage basins.     

Geological CO2 Storage as a Climate Change Mitigation Option

Carbon dioxide (CO₂₎ capture and storage is increasingly being considered as an important climate change mitigation option. This paper explores provisions for including geological CO₂ storage in climate policy. The storage capacity of Norway's Continental Shelf is alone sufficient to store a large share of European CO₂ emissions for many decades. If CO₂ is injected into oil reservoirs there is an additional benefit in terms of enhanced oil recovery. However, there are significant technical and economic challenges, including the large investment in infrastructure required, with related economies of scale properties. Thus CO₂ capture, transportation and storage projects are likely to be more economically attractive if developed on a large scale, which could mean involving two or more nations. An additional challenge is the risk of future leakages from storage sites, where the government must take on a major responsibility. In institutional and policy terms, important challenges are the unsettled status of geological CO₂ storage as a policy measure in the Kyoto Protocol, lack of relevant reporting and verification procedures, and lack of decisions on how the option should be linked to the flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. In terms of competitiveness with expected prices for CO₂ permits under Kyoto Protocol trading, the relatively high costs per tonne of CO₂ stored means that geological CO₂ storage is primarily of interest where enhanced oil recovery is possible. These shortcomings and uncertainties mean that companies and governments today only have weak incentives to venture into geological CO₂ storage.     

零秒脱落连接器可靠性设计及指标验证

目的 实现零秒脱落连接器高可靠的要求。方法 在产品设计中系统地开展可靠性设计与分析工作,进行设计方案优选以及设计方案优化,提高连接器的固有可靠性水平。通过分析确定连接器的薄弱环节及其可靠性特征量,并据此制定可靠性试验方案,验证连接器可靠性水平。结果 通过对可靠性试验数据进行评估,在规定的试验条件下,零秒脱落连接器发射任务可靠度的单侧置信下限值满足规定的可靠性指标要求。结论 通过将可靠性设计与分析工作融入产品工程设计过程中,在设计阶段有效地确保了连接器固有可靠性的实现。可靠性试验方案合理、可行,有效地降低了样本数量及试验成本。为相似产品的可靠性设计验证工作积累了工程经验。     

完全均匀混合质量平衡水质模型在滇池中的应用

介绍了完全均匀混合假设下以质量平衡为基础的湖泊水质模型,运用滇池的实测数据对模型进行了参数率定、验证,给出了模型在滇池水质预测中的应用实测,最后讨论了模型的几个假设条件对滇池的适应性。实例研究表明,该模型可适用于滇池水质有机污染长期浓度预测。      

论舰船设备的湿热试验

湿热环境是海军舰船设备所需承受的重要环境条件之一。论述了湿热试验目的、物理现象。针对海军舰船设备以往采用的几种湿热试验方法存在的严酷度差异,着重对GB2423-81《电工电子产品基本环境试验规程试验Db：交变湿热试验》、GIB150．9-86《军用设备环境试验方法湿热试验》、IB839-75《电工产品湿热试验》和《实船环境试验条件》的试验严酷度进行了验证比对并得出结论。     

农村环境质量综合评价技术体系区域适用性验证

长期以来,中国农村环境保护工作基础相对薄弱,国家环保部门于2014年出台《农村环境质量综合评价技术规定(试行)》。研究利用2015—2016年安徽省域的农村环境监测数据,将安徽省重点生态功能区考核县域的数据与其他县域监测数据进行分类整理,采用该技术规定开展农村环境质量综合评价,对评价体系的3个级别指标层面的评价结果进行对比,并通过2组数据的差异性分析,深度剖析评价体系各级指数的结果合理性,验证该评价技术规定的区域适用性;同时,根据各级指标对比中发现的问题,对评价体系的相关指标提出修改完善建议。     

田湾核电温排水遥感监测与数模一致性分析

利用温度反演和数值模拟的方法,对田湾核电站航天遥感测量和数值模拟结果作对比分析。结果显示:遥感监测和数值模拟结果在田湾核电站附近海域的海面温度场羽迹展布方向、不同季节大小潮型、潮态规律上都是相似的,只是在规模和数量上存在着一定差异,两者可以相互验证。     

SFLA-Verhulst组合模型预测矿井瓦斯涌出量

针对矿井瓦斯涌出量的时变性、波动性、非线性以及不确定性等特征，提出了SFLA-Verhulst组合预测模型，用于对具有非线性动态特征的瓦斯涌出量进行预测。该模型通过蛙跳算法对Verhulst模型的背景值参数寻优，并引入一次指数平滑法对原始数据进行优化处理，建立了基于混合蛙跳算法的SFLA-Verhulst组合预测模型；结果使模型在原始数据不准确或存在误差干扰的情况下仍能进行精度较高的预测。将新模型应用于某矿瓦斯涌出量预测，并对模型的预测结果进行检验分析，结果表明:该模型在结合蛙跳算法的全局寻优特点后预测精度较传统的GM(1,1)模型有明显的提高，适用性更强。     

突发事件下人群应急信息传播策略推演方法研究*

为提升突发事件预警信息传播能力,拓宽预警信息传播渠道,增强预警信息传播多元化特征,提出群体内个体传播影响力评估方法及应急信息传播模式制定方法,并基于网络分析与多智能体建模,研究群体应急信息传播策略制定方法与有效性分析手段,重点阐述方法实施路径与应用方向。研究结果可用于制定基于社会网络的应急信息传播策略,并通过多智能建模对应急信息传播情景进行有效性推演。