小样本条件下地铁运营事故致因推理模型

为克服传统事故致因推理模型不适用于小样本条件下的地铁运营事故致因推理的缺陷,将贝叶斯网络(BN)与Bootstrap抽样法、D-S证据理论相结合,建立地铁运营事故致因推理模型。首先,分析历年地铁运营事故样本,确定事故致因因素及网络节点;其次,基于BN的基本算法和理论,运用Bootstrap抽样法和K2算法进行BN结构学习;然后,使用D-S证据理论修正BN参数,建立适用于小样本条件下的地铁运营事故致因BN模型;最后,进行因果推理、诊断推理和敏感性分析。结果表明：所构建的地铁运营事故致因推理模型可有效进行事故推理预测,节点预测精度均值为0.858;通过因果推理得出最常见的地铁运营事故类型为运营中断,其次是火灾和列车冲突;结合诊断推理发现供电系统故障是导致运营中断的最主要事故致因。     

我国基于互联网进行环境治理的现状问题及建议(下篇)

本文初步探讨了互联网时代环境治理的特征,系统分析总结了我国现阶段各社会主体基于互联网开展环境治理的现状及问题,并对我国政府环保部门如何推动互联网时代环境治理改革提出建议。此文为下篇。     

网络传播环境下的沉默螺旋和反沉默螺旋现象分析——以天涯论坛和《非你莫属》为例

沉默的螺旋理论作为传播学的基础理论,在传播学界关于舆论学的研究中享有极高的声誉。随着互联网的普及,民众越来越多的通过网络表达意见,这一理论在理论和实践上都受到了一定的质疑,出现了反沉默螺旋理论。本文运用内容分析法,通过对具体案例的考察和分析,阐述了现代网络传播环境下沉默螺旋和反沉默螺旋并存的现象。     

构造湿地在污水处理厂二级出水后的深度处理应用研究

中国大部分污水处理厂目前均采用二级处理工艺,主要去除碳源污染物,而消解氮、磷类污染物的效果较差.在传统二级处理工艺基础上,对中水进行三级深度处理,BOD5、SS以及COD类污染物去除效果明显,但运行成本较高,处理量受限.人工构造湿地利用基质-植物-微生物复合生态系统的物理、化学和生物的三重协同作用,通过过滤、吸附与沉淀等作用,以及微生物同化分解和植物吸收转化等途径,可有效去除污水中的氮、磷、SS、有机物及重金属等污染物,且具有低投资、低运转费、低维持成本等特点.     

浅议浙江省辐射环境监测网络建设

面对新形势和新要求,进一步推进浙江省辐射环境监测网络建设是加强核与辐射安全监督管理、有效预警和及时处置突发核与辐射事故的必要基础。本文报道了浙江省辐射环境监测网络的建设情况和现状,初步分析了辐射环境监测网络存在的问题以及加强建设的建议。     

臭氧对己内酰胺废水的深度处理

臭氧具有强氧化性,氧化还原电位高,能氧化水中多种有机物,臭氧对己内酰胺废水进行深度处理能有效去除水中残留的COD和色度,且臭氧投加量越多,污染物去除率越高,但去除的增加幅度越来越小;考虑到工程投资及运行费用,建议臭氧投加量在40mg/L的条件下,利用臭氧提升的可生化性,再进行深度生化为最经济的反应条件。     

市政污泥深度脱水滤液水质特性研究

以武汉市五座污水处理厂剩余污泥经Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ三种污泥调理方法调理及脱水的污泥深度脱水滤液为研究对象,分析测定了水样的常规水质指标。结果表明,配方Ⅰ所得脱水滤液pH为12.8左右,呈强碱性,配方Ⅱ、Ⅲ所得脱水滤液pH=3.0~6.2,呈酸性。污泥深度脱水滤液的水质随脱水污泥的来源、污泥调理方法不同而异,稳定、氧化程度高的污泥其深度脱水滤液水质较好。经调理后的深度脱水滤液ρ(COD)为180~1200 mg/L,为中低浓度有机废水;BOD5/COD=0.49~0.66,可生化性良好;氨氮浓度为20~200 mg/L,差异较大,但普遍较高,C/N在2.2~13.4,属低C/N比废水;TP在0.4~5.5 mg/L,C∶N∶P对微生物生长来说并不协调。污泥调理剂中的破胞试剂对污泥脱水滤液水质影响较大,配方Ⅱ、Ⅲ调理剂中含破胞试剂,调理后的污泥深度脱水滤液COD和氨氮值较大。最后,建议对氨氮负荷过高而不适合回流的深度脱水滤液采用高效的生物脱氮工艺进行处理。     

Fast increasing of surface ozone concentrations in Pearl River Delta characterized by a regional air quality monitoring network during 2006-2011

Based on the observation by a Regional Air Quality Monitoring Network including 16 monitoring stations, temporal and spatial variations of ozone(O3), NO2and total oxidant(Ox) were analyzed by both linear regression and cluster analysis. A fast increase of regional O3concentrations of 0.86 ppbV/yr was found for the annual averaged values from 2006 to 2011 in Guangdong, China. Such fast O3increase is accompanied by a correspondingly fast NOx reduction as indicated by a fast NO2 reduction rate of 0.61 ppbV/yr. Based on a cluster analysis, the monitoring stations were classified into two major categories – rural stations(non-urban) and suburban/urban stations. The O3concentrations at rural stations were relatively conserved while those at suburban/urban stations showed a fast increase rate of 2.0 ppbV/yr accompanied by a NO2 reduction rate of 1.2 ppbV/yr. Moreover, a rapid increase of the averaged O3 concentrations in springtime(13%/yr referred to 2006 level) was observed, which may result from the increase of solar duration, reduction of precipitation in Guangdong and transport from Eastern Central China. Application of smog production algorithm showed that the photochemical O3production is mainly volatile organic compounds(VOC)-controlled. However, the photochemical O3production is sensitive to both NOx and VOC for O3pollution episode. Accordingly, it is expected that a combined NOx and VOC reduction will be helpful for the reduction of the O3 pollution episodes in Pearl River Delta while stringent VOC emission control is in general required for the regional O3 pollution control.     

Review on water leakage control in distribution networks and the associated environmental benefits

Water supply is the primary element of an urban system. Due to rapid urbanization and water scarcity, maintaining a stable and safe water supply has become a challenge to many cities, whereas a large amount of water is lost from the pipes of distribution systems. Water leakage is not only a waste of water resources, but also incurs great socio-economic costs. This article presents a comprehensive review on the potential water leakage control approaches and specifically discusses the benefits of each to environmental conservation. It is concluded that water leakage could be further reduced by improving leakage detection capability through a combination of predictive modeling and monitoring instruments, optimizing pipe maintenance strategy, and developing an instant pressure regulation system. The environment could benefit from these actions because of water savings and the reduction of energy consumption as well as greenhouse gas emissions.     

基于百度指数的长江中游城市群城市网络特征研究

随着地理研究迈入大数据时代,运用互联网展开城市网络结构研究逐渐成为经理地理研究的新思路。以长江中游城市群为研究对象,借助百度指数,获取2011年~2014年百度用户关注度,构建百度指数城市信息流网络,从大城市群视角和所辖三大子城市群视角,分别探讨城市网络格局的时空变化。研究发现:长江中游城市群在一体化进程中城市等级日益明晰,差距拉大。三大子城市群表现出极化效应与扩散效应并存,区域非均衡性突显;互联网的普及在一定程度上重塑和改造着城市群,但非完全颠覆传统城市网络格局,地理区位对城市网络格局和城市影响力的影响仍不容忽视。