基于博弈论的安全决策信息融合

安全信息融合的研究涉及多源信息的表示、内在联系和运动规律的研究。冗余和互补的多源信息在融合系统中不可避免地存在着相互竞争和协同作用,因而多源融合系统中的信息冲突与合作的分析成为信息融合理论研究中的核心与实质问题。博弈理论对冲突和合作局势分析与研究提供了一种定量工具,其研究成果成功地解释了多局中人在“交互决策”过程如何构造博弈的“均衡点”,以及“均衡点”所具有的各种特性。笔者在研究了博弈理论的基础上,以博弈论的观点和方法解决安全信息融合系统冲突信息环境下的融合系统决策问题,并建立了相应的模型并应用了融合算法。     

Communal burrowing in the hystricognath rodent, Octodon degus: a benefit of sociality?

We examined the hypothesis that a main benefit of group-living in the semifossorial rodent, Octodon degus (Rodentia: Octodontidae), is to decrease individual cost of burrow construction. We contrasted the digging behavior of groups of three same-sex, adult-sized individuals with that of solitary degus. The behavior of singles and trios was recorded inside a large terrarium partially filled with natural soil and under controlled conditions of food, light, and temperature. The observation that degus in groups do not decrease their burrowing time or frequency of digging compared with solitary diggers does not support the hypothesis that communal burrowing is a primary cause of degu sociality. On the other hand, the observation that degus in groups removed significantly more soil per capita than solitary digging degus, and that grouped individuals coordinated their digging – group members burrowed mostly in the same sites and formed digging chains –, suggests that social burrowing may potentially reduce the cost of burrow construction in the long term. We suggest that such long-term benefits will be a consequence rather than a cause of degu group-living. Received: 9 December 1999 / Received in revised form: 2 January 2000 / Accepted: 8 February 2000     

利用承台与桩基协同工作和土的抗力作用处理桩基事故

湖南省某企业职工住宅楼成孔灌注桩基础 ,部分桩单桩承载力经静载试验后不能达到设计要求 ,必须进行处理。本文通过对事故原因分析 ,处理方案的确定 ,结构和构造措施的采用等方面 ,分析与处理了这个工程事故 ,并在技术经济效果方面进行了对比。     

Socially Strategic Ecological Restoration: A Game-Theoretic Analysis Shortened: Socially Strategic Restoration

Major transitions in a multiple-use or mosaic landscape often lead to frictions among new and existing users. In this article, we consider the problem of ecological restoration within a mosaic landscape in which restoration activities elicit feedbacks from individuals and groups that are harmed by restoration outcomes. Using game theory, we identify three potential outcomes ranked by the extent of restoration of ecosystem services and processes: nonstrategic, noncooperative strategic equilibrium, and cooperative bargaining solution. We identify conditions under which additional restoration can decrease the overall flow of ecosystem services and processes. A “strategic restorationist” will cease new restoration activities when the net effect of defensive response moves by farmers offsets gains. Imperfect information regarding expected payoffs to farmers can lead to inefficient overshooting or undershooting the optimal scale, geographical positioning, and form of restoration. Gains to all parties from cooperation might exist. As a case study and to aid model design, we consider restoration activities on California’s upper Sacramento River. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Cross-Boundary Cooperation in a Watershed Context: The Sentiments of Private Forest Landowners

Ecosystem management and sustainable forestry on mixed ownership landscapes will require some level of cross-boundary coordination or management. Oregon's experiment with local, voluntary, collaborative forums, called watershed councils, is one mechanism to foster cross-boundary management. Fifty qualitative, in-depth interviews in three study areas were conducted with nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) landowners, watershed council members, and agency employees to learn how and why landowners participate (or not) on watershed councils. Study areas were located in three different areas of the state to reflect different ecological and organizational settings. Our case study identified three themes—stewardship ethic, property rights amid uncertainty, and action orientation—that were most salient among landowners when deciding to participate in their local watershed council. Other factors related to competing opportunities were also identified. Our results relate to the social psychological antecedents to cooperation of perceived consensus, group identity, and legitimacy of authority as well as to applied situations where cross-boundary coordination and management are goals.     

青岛“上合峰会”期间夜间臭氧增长成因分析

针对青岛“上合峰会”保障期间出现夜间臭氧（O₃）浓度增长的现象,本文利用地面常规观测资料和污染物浓度数据对其进行分析和研究.结果表明,在6日20：00~23：00,青岛出现O₃浓度持续性增长,峰值浓度达194μg/m³,浓度增长速率达10.7μg/（m³·h）.结合NCEP/FNL再分析资料可知,在夜间西南风的作用下,江苏、安徽等地排放的O₃及其前体物向青岛传输,并在边界层内下沉运动作用下,将其传输至近地面.通过计算边界层内通风量可知,6日边界层内最大风速区高度逐渐降低,达到低空急流的标准,且在夜间1000m以下的通风量呈现出波动性增长,500m和500~1000m高度的通风量峰值分别为3900和5892m²/s.另外,本研究基于CAMx空气质量数值模式中的O₃来源追踪方法（OSAT）对其进行了模拟分析,结果显示在夜间O₃增长时段（20：00~23：00）,青岛地区的主要贡献来源分别为江苏、安徽以及上海,上述3地的贡献比例平均为62.3%、16.6%和8.6%.     

县级环境监理稽查机制的建立和协调运作

县级环境监理稽查机制的建立丰富了环境监理工作的内涵，可促进环境监理部门和加大执法力度和依法行政。探讨了环境监理稽查的协调运作机制。     

Do newborn domestic rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus compete for thermally advantageous positions in the litter huddle?

Competition among mammalian siblings for scarce resources can be severe. Whereas research to date has focused on competition for the mother’s milk, the young of many (particularly altricial) species might also be expected to compete for thermally favorable positions within the nest, den, or litter huddle. We investigated this in newborn pups of the European rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus, a species in which the altricial young are not brooded by the mother, and in which competition for milk is severe. In eight unculled litters (N = 86 pups) of a domestic chinchilla strain, we calculated huddling indexes for individual pups on postnatal days 2–5 as a measure of the degree of insulation they received from littermates. Pups maintained almost constant physical contact with the litter huddle. They performed brief but frequent rooting and climbing behaviors, which usually improved their huddling index, interspersed with longer periods of quiescence during which their huddling index declined. As expected, we found a significant positive relation between pups’ mean huddling index and body temperature. Unexpectedly, however, we did not find a relation between huddling index and pups’ birth weight, survival, milk intake, or efficiency of converting milk to body mass. We conclude that rather than competing for thermally advantageous positions within the huddle newborn rabbits share out thermally advantageous positions as they move in a continual dynamic flow through it. Thus, in newborn rabbits, competition for the mother’s milk exists alongside mutual “cooperative” benefits of littermate presence. This contribution is part of the special issue “Sibling competition and cooperation in mammals” (guest editors: Robyn Hudson and Fritz Trillmich).     

Association patterns among wild chimpanzees (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii</Emphasis>) reflect sex differences in cooperation

Theory predicts that frequent dyadic association should promote cooperation through kin selection or social tolerance. Here we test the hypothesis that sex differences in the strength and stability of association preferences among free-ranging chimpanzees conform to sex differences in cooperative behavior. Using long-term data from the Kanyawara chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) community (Kibale National Park, Uganda), we calculated indices of intra-sexual dyadic association over a 10-year period. We found that (1) male–male dyads had significantly stronger association indices than female–female dyads, (2) the pattern of association preferences in both sexes changed little over the entire study period, and (3) when comparing periods with different alpha males, changes in association strength were more frequent among males. These results demonstrate that both the strength and stability of association patterns are important components of social relationships. Male chimpanzees, which are characterized by frequent cooperation, had association preferences that were both strong and stable, suggesting that forming long-term bonds is an important dominance strategy. However, the fact that male association patterns were sensitive to upheaval in the male dominance hierarchy suggests that males also take advantage of a changing social climate when choosing association partners. By contrast, the overall strength of female associations was relatively weak. Female association preferences were equally stable as males’; however, this reflected a dyad’s tendency to be found in the same party rather than to associate closely within that party. Therefore, in this community, female association patterns appear to be more a consequence of individual ranging behavior rather than a correlate of cooperation.     

Tug-of-war over reproduction in a cooperatively breeding cichlid

In group-living animals, dominants may suppress subordinate reproduction directly and indirectly, thereby skewing reproduction in their favour. In this study, we show experimentally that this ability (‘power’) is influenced by resource distribution and the body size difference between unrelated dominants and subordinates in the cichlid Neolamprologus pulcher. Reproduction was strongly skewed towards the dominant female, due to these females producing more and larger clutches and those clutches surviving egg eating better than those of subordinate females, but was not so when subordinates defended a patch. If breeding shelters were provided in two patches, subordinate females were more likely to exclusively defend a patch against the dominant female and breed, compared to when the same breeding resource was provided in one patch. Relatively large subordinate females were more likely to defend a patch and reproduce. Females also directly interfered with each other’s reproduction by eating the competitors’ eggs, at which dominants were more successful. Although dominant females benefited from subordinate females due to alloparental care and an increase in egg mass, they also showed costs due to reduced growth in the presence of subordinates. The results support the view that the dominant’s power to control subordinate reproduction determines reproductive partitioning, in agreement with the predictions from tug-of-war models of reproductive skew.