面向城市管理的城市建筑存量研究综述

城市建筑存量研究是为适应当前城市管理的需要而出现的理论研究,与国家制定的城市可持续发展战略具有内在一致性。本文对城市建筑存量的概念进行解析,全面阐述了城市建筑存量研究的意义,概述了城市建筑存量研究的系统边界、内涵和研究方法等,总结了城市建筑存量研究的三大领域：城市建筑存量时空演变及影响因素研究、城市建筑废弃物资源化开发潜力分析研究和城市可持续管理决策支持系统开发的研究现状。目前城市建筑存量理论体系尚不够完善、定量工具和基础数据库严重缺乏,对于城市决策支持不足,未来应在城市建筑存量时空演变及环境影响分析、开发融合多学科交叉及新技术应用的分析方法和辅助城市可持续管理决策三个领域加强和深化研究。     

Carbon accounting for Japanese petrochemicals

This paper discusses two bottom-up models for the estimation of carbon storage and CO₂ emissions related to the nonenergy use of fossil energy carriers. The models show how material flow accounting can be applied to policy making. The nonenergy use emission accounting tables model is a static model, while the chemical industry environmental strategy assessment program (CHEAP) model is a dynamic model of the flows of synthetic organic materials. Both models provide detailed and more accurate estimates of carbon storage in materials than the accounting method that is currently used in the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) guidelines. The results for both models suggest that carbon storage in synthetic organic materials has been overestimated, and consequently CO₂ emissions have been underestimated. Japanese CO₂ emissions in 1996 were at least 1.9% higher than reported previously. The CHEAP model results indicate that the net carbon storage (storage − emissions in waste incineration) will decrease during the next few decades. This decrease is mainly driven by changing waste management practice. Received: December 8, 2000 / Accepted: August 15, 2001     

Material flow analysis of paper in Korea. Part I. Data calculation model from the flow relationships between paper products

The flows of paper are analyzed throughout the papermaking processes, with the year 2007 and Korea defined as the system boundaries. In practice, the statistical data on the production, import and export of paper or pulp can be collected with relative ease from the government and industrial associations. However, the input data regarding the volumes of pulp and wastepaper used in different paper products, such as newsprint, printing papers, sanitary and household papers, specialty papers, and corrugating board base, are difficult to obtain because such information is generally kept confidential in the course of corporate operations.The production processes of paper products in Korea are modeled using information on raw materials, their compositions and production yields of products in order to identify and quantify the amounts of pulp and wastepaper used in each paper product. The material flows of paper are then analyzed based on the calculation model derived from the correlation of input and output flows between the individual processes throughout the entire paper lifecycle. Accuracy analysis using both mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is conducted to verify the amounts of pulp and wastepaper calculated from the proposed model against the volumes of domestically consumed pulp and wastepaper provided in the national statistics. Although the calculated values for the past (i.e., the 1980s and 1990s) differ to some degree from the statistical values, the data for the 2000s have a relatively higher level of accuracy, with the MAPE of the total pulp and recycling volume at 5.39% and 5.30%, respectively, thus validating the adequacy of the proposed modeling method. The proposed calculation model can be effectively used in the material flow analysis (MFA) of paper to reduce the burden of data collection and obtain relatively accurate results.     

An interregional ecological approach for modelling sustainability in a globalizing world—Reviewing existing approaches and emerging directions

In recent decades international trade has become a major source of supplying the need and wants of billions of people around the world. Virtually everyone now consumes resource commodities and manufactured products imported from ‘elsewhere’. In effect, globalization and trade enable consuming populations to support themselves on the output of distant ecosystems half a world away. However, while economic integration implies greater ‘connectivity’ within the global village, the spatial separation of material production (including resource extraction) from consumption eliminates some of the signals i.e., the negative feedbacks coming from supporting eco-systems from reaching those who depend on these ecosystems for their sustainability. At present, despite increasing global connectedness, most environmental studies and models apply to a single spatial scale: local, national or global; analysing diverse pressures on human well-being and ecosystems integrity. This paper argues that both economic globalization and global ecological change should force us to add an interregional scale for quantifying and modelling sustainability. Such an approach recognizes that, in a globalizing world, the sustainability of any given region increasingly depends, directly and indirectly, on the sustainability of many other regions. The following pages describe the interregional approach and illustrate some existing and emerging methods for quantifying, analysing and modelling interregional linkages. It then identifies some of what is still missing, and discusses some of the implications in a changing world.     

Multi-objective optimization of waste and resource management in industrial networks – Part I: Model description

This article presents a general multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) optimization model aimed at providing decision support for waste and resources management in industrial networks. The MILP model combines material flow analysis, process models of waste treatments and other industrial processes, life cycle assessment, and mathematical optimization techniques within a unified framework. The optimization is based on a simplified representation of industrial networks that makes use of linear process models to describe the flows of mass and energy. Waste-specific characteristics, e.g. heating value or heavy metal contamination, are considered explicitly along with potential technologies or process configurations. The systems perspective, including both provision of waste treatment and industrial production, enables constraints imposed upon the systems, e.g. available treatment capacities, to be explicitly considered in the model. The model output is a set of alternative system configurations in terms of distribution of waste and resources that optimize environmental and economic performance. The MILP also enables quantification of the improvement potential compared to a given reference state. Trade-offs between conflicting objectives are identified through the generation of a set of Pareto-efficient solutions. This information supports the decision making process by revealing the quantified performance of the efficient trade-offs without relying on weighting being expressed prior to the analysis. Key features of the modeling approach are illustrated in a hypothetical case. The optimization model described in this article is applied in a subsequent paper (Part II) to assess and optimize the thermal treatment of sewage sludge in a region in Switzerland.     

Modification of uncertainty analysis in adapted material flow analysis: Case study of nitrogen flows in the Day-Nhue River Basin,Vietnam

Nitrogen flows impacted by human activities in the Day-Nhue River Basin in northern Vietnam have been modeled using adapted material flow analysis (MFA). This study introduces a modified uncertainty analysis procedure and its importance in MFA. We generated a probability distribution using a Monte Carlo simulation, calculated the nitrogen budget for each process and then evaluated the plausibility under three different criterion sets. The third criterion, with one standard deviation of the budget value as the confidence interval and 68% as the confidence level, could be applied to effectively identify hidden uncertainties in the MFA system. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for revising parameters, followed by the reassessment of the model structure by revising equations or flow regime, if necessary. The number of processes that passed the plausibility test increased from five to nine after reassessment of model uncertainty with a greater model quality. The application of the uncertainty analysis approach to this case study revealed that the reassessment of equations in the aquaculture process largely changed the results for nitrogen flows to environments. The significant differences were identified as increased nitrogen load to the atmosphere and to soil/groundwater (17% and 41%, respectively), and a 58% decrease in nitrogen load to surface water. Thus, modified uncertainty analysis was considered to be an important screening system for ensuring quality of MFA modeling.