A spatially explicit empirical model of structural development processes in natural forests based on climate and topography

Stand structure develops with stand age. Old-growth forests with well-developed stand structure support many species. However, development rates of stand structure likely vary with climate and topography. We modeled structural development of 4 key stand variables and a composite old-growth index as functions of climatic and topographic covariates. We used a hierarchical Bayesian method for analysis of extensive snap-shot National Forest Inventory (NFI) data in Japan (n = 9244) to account for differences in stand age. Development rates of structural variables and the old-growth index exhibited curvilinear responses to environmental covariates. Flat sites were characterized by high rates of structural development. Approximately 150 years were generally required to attain high values (approximately 0.8) of the old-growth index. However, the predicted age to achieve specific values varied depending on environmental conditions. Spatial predictions highlighted regional variation in potential structural development rates. For example, sometimes there were differences of >100 years among sites, even in the same catchment, in attainment of a medium index value (0.5) after timber harvesting. The NFI data suggested that natural forests, especially old natural forests (>150 years), remain generally on unproductive ridges, steep slopes, or areas with low temperature and deep snow, where many structural variables show slow development rates. We suggest that maintenance and restoration of old natural forests on flat sites should be prioritized for conservation due to the likely rapid development of stand structure, although remaining natural forests on low-productivity sites are still important and should be protected.     

DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING OF A SNOWMELT-RUNOFF FORECASTING TECHNIQUE1

ABSTRACT: The snowmelt-runoff model (SRM) was used to produce accurate simulations of streamfiow during the snowmelt period (April-September) for ten years on the Rio Grande Basin (3419 km²) near Del Norte, Colorado, U.S.A. In order to use SRM in the forecast situation, it was necessary to develop a family of snow cover depletion curves for each elevation zone based on accumulated snow water equivalent on April 1. Selection of an appropriate curve for a particular year from snow course measurements allows input of the daily snow cover extent to SRM for forecast purposes. Data from three years (1980, 1981, and 1985) were used as a quasi-forecast test of the procedure. In these years forecasted snow cover extent data were input to SRM, but observed temperature and precipitation data were used. The resulting six-month hydrographs were very similar to the hydrographs in the ten simulation years previously tested based on comparisons of performance evaluation criteria. Based on this result, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) requested SRM forecasts for 1987 on the Rio Grande. Using the same procedure but with SCS estimated temperature and precipi-tation data, SRM produced a forecast hydrograph that had a r²= 0.82 and difference in seasonal volume of 4.4 percent. To approximate actual operational conditions, SRM computed daily flows were updated every seven days with measured flows. The resulting forecast hydrograph had a R²= 0.90 and a difference in volume of 3.5 percent. The method developed needs to be refined and tested on additional years and basins, but the approach appears to be applicable to operational runoff forecasting using remote sensing data.     

2005年春季亚洲尘的激光雷达观测

呼和浩特的激光雷达自2003年设置以来不间断地进行着测定。观测结果表明2005年春季沙尘发生次数较少。从1月到5月只观测到5次，其中3次发生在4月份。2004年的沙尘季节出现较早，在3月份就发生过多次。与其相比今年沙尘发生的季节较晚。在所有发生的沙尘现象中最大规模的沙尘现象发生在2005年4月28—29日。激光雷达观测到的消光系数超过2km^-1。（相当于重量浓度为3．5mg／m^3）该沙尘层的高度达到2km，沙尘浓度最高的区域分布在自地面至1km高处。（北京的观测结果表明，在高度2km附近有漂浮的沙尘层。另外，利用CFORS模型模拟的后向轨迹线的解析结果推断其发生源在蒙古南部地区。2005年的特征是在中国境内产生的次数较少，在蒙古发生的次数较多。因此，推断这主要是由于蒙古国境内积雪较少的原因所致。）     

抚顺市降水化学组份特征分析

对 2 0 0 2年 2月～ 2 0 0 3年 3月抚顺市的降水化学组份及时空分布特征进行了分析。抚顺地区降水是以硫酸型污染为主。抚顺市降水中主要阳离子组份是Ca2 + 、NH4 + ,主要阴离子组份是SO4 2 - 和NO3- 。由多元逐步回归分析可知抚顺市降水中NO3- 是酸化剂 ,Ca2 + 是碱化剂 ,对方程起作用的因子大小顺序是Ca2 + >Na+ >NO3- 。     

Wind Tunnel Experiments and Numerical Simulation of Snow Drifting around an Avalanche Protecting Dam

To learn about wind flow and snow drifting around avalanche dams, experiments were done in the Jules Verne Climatic Wind Tunnel. The paper reports the results from numerical wind flow simulations that were done to support the findings from the wind tunnel. Satisfying the model similitude criteria for the wind tunnel configuration was difficult due to the inevitable small geometric scale of the model, while on the contrary the snow drifting conditions in the facilities were full scale. By comparing numerical wind flow results of full scale and model scale dams with the snow pattern observed in the wind tunnel, it was possible to conclude that albeit poor model similitude, the snowdrifts on the windward side of the wind tunnel model are likely to indicate the full scale natural situation.     

Increasing chloride concentration causes retention of mercury in melted Arctic snow due to changes in photoreduction kinetics

Mercury(Hg) in the Arctic is a significant concern due to its bioaccumulative and neurotoxic properties, and the sensitivity of Arctic environments. Previous research has found high levels of Hg in snowpacks with high chloride(Cl~-) concentrations. We hypothesised that Cl~- would increase Hg retention by decreasing Hg photoreduction to Hg(0) in melted Arctic snow. To test this, changes in Hg photoreduction kinetics in melted Alert, NU snow were quantified with changing Cl~- concentration and UV intensity. Snow was collected and melted in Teflon bottles in May 2014, spiked with 0–10 μg/g Cl~-, and irradiated with 3.52–5.78 W·m~(-2) UV(280–400 nm)radiation in a Luz Chem photoreactor. Photoreduction rate constants(k)(0.14–0.59 hr~(-1)) had positive linear relationships with [Cl~-], while photoreduced Hg amounts(Hg(Ⅱ)_(red)) had negative linear relationships with [Cl~-](1287–64 pg in 200 g melted snow). Varying UV and[Cl~-] both altered Hg(Ⅱ)_(red) amounts, with more efficient Hg stabilisation by Cl~- at higher UV intensity, while k can be predicted by Cl- concentration and/or UV intensity, depending on experimental parameters. Overall, with future projections for greater snowpack Cl~- loading,our experimental results suggest that more Hg could be delivered to Arctic aquatic ecosystems by melted snow(smaller Hg(Ⅱ)_(red) expected), but the Hg in the melted snow that is photoreduced may do so more quickly(larger k expected).     

突发事件连锁反应的实证研究——以2008年初我国南方冰雪灾害为例

从突发事件连锁反应分析,认为2008年初我国南方的冰雪灾害是由自然灾害引发的连锁反应事件。选择了新浪网冰雪灾害报道专题的近4 000篇报道作为数据源,从时间、空间和事件角度揭示了此次冰雪灾害的演化过程,并分析了事件扩散的原因。     

多因素下开洞口煤仓风致积雪CFD模拟及拟合研究

为解决结构设计时开洞口圆形煤仓表面无法确定荷载分布系数问题，使用计算流体力学软件研究了开洞口煤仓不同跨度下风向角、积雪厚度及矢跨比变化下屋面积雪不均匀分布情况，提出了针对此种特殊结构的屋面积雪值拟合公式。研究结果表明:此公式拟合准确度高，屋面积雪值随风向角和积雪厚度增大而变大，风向角对积雪值影响极大，矢跨比影响下屋面积雪值变化较为复杂，且风向角和矢跨比2种参数相互影响，不应单一考虑矢跨比对球壳屋面积雪值的影响。     

基于RS和GIS的2008年长江中下游雪灾监测——以湖北省为例

2008年1月中旬至2月初，我国长江中下游地区出现了大范围持续低温、雨雪、冰冻天气气候事件，造成了特大积雪灾害。以湖北省为例，基于RS和GIS技术对这次雪灾进行了动态的监测评估。利用连续多天的卫星遥感资料和积雪深度观测资料，在GIS的支持下，计算归一化差分积雪指数（NDSI），提取积雪分布信息，并根据不同海拔高度，确定了积雪深度的NDSI分层阈值，实现了3层积雪深度(0～10、10～20 和20～30 cm)的判识。针对积雪区内不同的土地利用类型，统计了不同深度的积雪面积。结果表明：湖北省近90%面积被雪覆盖，其中江汉平原、鄂东北和鄂东南等地雪灾最为严重，部分地区积雪深度在20 cm以上；水田、旱地等农业用地以及湖泊、水库、河渠等水系积雪最为严重，居民点用地也有较大范围的积雪，居民生活受较大影响；2月2日以后积雪面积逐日减少，到2月8日，积雪基本融化。在上述研究基础上形成了基于RS和GIS的长江中下游积雪监测的业务流程.