沈阳市降雪中PFOS和PFOA污染现状调查

通过调查降雪中PFOS和PFOA的浓度,阐明了沈阳市大气中PFOS和PFOA的污染状况和污染规律.2006-02-06采集沈阳市区和郊区共计36个采样点的降雪样品,2006-02-25在其中5个采样点再次采集降雪样品.固相萃取融雪水中的PFOS和PFOA,利用LC-MS-SIM法测定样品中PFOS和PFOA浓度.全部样品中均检出PFOS和PFOA.2006-02-06降雪中PFOS和PFOA的浓度几何平均值分别为2.0 ng·L^-1（范围：0.4～46.2 ng·L^-1）和3.6 ng·L^-1（范围：1.6～22.4 ng·L^-1）,95%置信区间分别为1.5～2.8 ng·L^-1和3.1～4.2 ng·L^-1.PFOS和PFOA的最高浓度同时出现在郊区采样点朱尔屯,市中心区2种物质的浓度呈显著正相关.2006-02-25的5个采样点降雪中PFOS和PFOA的浓度几何平均值均为2.2 ng·L^-1.2次降雪中PFOS浓度差异不显著,2006-02-25降雪中PFOA浓度高于2006-02-06.结果表明,沈阳市区和郊区降雪中广泛存在PFOS和PFOA污染,局部区域可能存在共同的PFOS和PFOA污染来源;沈阳地区有较稳定的PFOS来源持续向大气中输送该类物质;PFOS和PFOA的环境行为可能不同.     

Does Including Soil Moisture Observations Improve Operational Streamflow Forecasts in Snow‐Dominated Watersheds?

Changing climate and growing water demand are increasing the need for robust streamflow forecasts. Historically, operational streamflow forecasts made by the Natural Resources Conservation Service have relied on precipitation and snow water equivalent observations from Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites. We investigate whether also including SNOTEL soil moisture observations improve April‐July streamflow volume forecast accuracy at 0, 1, 2, and 3‐month lead times at 12 watersheds in Utah and California. We found statistically significant improvement in 0 and 3‐month lead time accuracy in 8 of 12 watersheds and 10 of 12 watersheds for 1 and 2‐month lead times. Surprisingly, these improvements were insensitive to soil moisture metrics derived from soil physical properties. Forecasts were made with volumetric water content (VWC) averaged from October 1 to the forecast date. By including VWC at the 0‐month lead time the forecasts explained 7.3% more variability and increased the streamflow volume accuracy by 8.4% on average compared to standard forecasts that already explained an average 77% of the variability. At 1 to 3‐month lead times, the inclusion of soil moisture explained 12.3‐26.3% more variability than the standard forecast on average. Our findings indicate including soil moisture observations increased statistical streamflow forecast accuracy and thus, could potentially improve water supply reliability in regions affected by changing snowpacks.     

基于SARIMA模型的黑龙江省冰雪旅游国际需求预测

选取黑龙江省1990-2011年冰雪旅游入境人次的月度时间序列为研究样本，建立SARIMA模型对黑龙江省冰雪旅游国际需求进行分析预测。结果表明，SARIMA（4，1，4）（1，1，1）。模型的拟合度和短期预测效果都较好。通过应用SARIMA模型进行冰雪旅游预测，以期对黑龙江省旅游企业的冰雪旅游国际客源市场开发及政府部门制定冰雪旅游发展战略和政策调整提供重要的理论依据。     

陕南地区清代霜雪灾害及分形特征研究

通过对陕南清代历史文献资料的搜集、整理和分析,研究了清代(1644-1911年)陕南霜雪灾害等级、阶段变化及不同等级灾害周期性等。统计分析显示,陕南清代发生霜雪灾害28次,平均每9.57年发生一次;霜雪灾害可划分为轻度、中度、重度三级,各占灾害总频次的21%,72%和7%;清代霜雪灾害可分为4个阶段,其中1644-1668年和1819-1868年的第1、第3阶段为灾害多发期,而1669-1818年和1869-1911年的第2、第4阶段为灾害少发期。霜雪灾害的自相似性揭示了灾害的分形性,分形结果显示陕南地区清代各等级灾害呈周期变化,且这些灾害的集中性非常强。陕南清代轻度、中度和重度霜雪灾害发生分别存在着16～18 a,7～8 a和46 a振荡周期。该地区霜雪灾害的发生主要是偏暖月的持续性降雪、积雪或由寒流引起的气温骤降造成的。初步确定陕南清代发生了两次霜雪灾害气候事件,时间在公元1649-1663年和1817-1842年。     

ESTIMATED RUNOFF FROM MAN-MADE SNOW1

ABSTRACT: The consumptive loss from man-made snowmaking at six Colorado ski areas is calculated. The focus of the procedures in this investigation is on the consumptive loss that occurs to man-made snow particles during the period they reside on or in the snowpack until spring snowmelt (termed the watershed loss). Calculated watershed losses under a variety of precipitation and temperature conditions at six ski areas varied from 7 to 33 percent. These calculations were made using the calibrated Subalpine Water Balance Simulation Model (Leaf and Brink, 1973a, 1973b). The watershed loss of 7 to 33 percent indicates the range of likely watershed losses that can be expected at Colorado ski areas. A previous paper by the authors (Eisel et al., 1988) provided estimates of the mean consumptive loss during the snowmaking process (termed initial loss) for conditions existing at Colorado ski areas to be 6 percent of water applied. Therefore, based on the mean initial loss, the total consumptive loss from man-made snowmaking under conditions found at Colorado ski areas could be expected to range from 13 to 37 percent. These results demonstrate the range of total consumptive losses that could be expected in various years and for various watershed conditions. These total percentage losses cannot be extrapolated directly to other specific sites because the total consumptive loss is dependent on temperature during actual snowmaking, temperature and precipitation throughout the winter at the specific ski area, and watershed conditions at the ski area. Consumptive losses to man-made snow for a specific ski area should be estimated using the handbook procedures developed especially for this purpose (Colorado Ski Country USA, 1986b).     

PRECIPITATION CATCH MEASURED BY TUE WYOMING SHIELD AND TUE DUAL-GAGE SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The Wyoming shield and dual-gage measuring systems were developed to measure all precipitation, but more specifically snowfall under windy conditions. Results of a study at five sites on the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in southwest Idaho indicate that gages with Wyoming shields and the dual-gage system measured the same amount when air temperatures were higher than ?2.2°C. Precipitation amounts computed from the dual. gage system were slightly more than from gages with Wyoming shields for snowfall, especially under windy conditions. Results also show how well the Alter shielded and unshielded gages used in the dual-gage system represent the computed catch if data were only available from one or the other of the gages.     

ESTIMATING REGIONAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH A SIMPLE SIMULATION MODEL1

A simple simulation model designed to monitor snow-packs of the central Sierra Nevada is described. The model estimates average snow water equivalent for rectangular subregions in the area. Static subregion characteristics, daily precipitation and mean and minimum air temperatures measured at three index stations are the only needed input values. A water balance technique simulates daily snowpack changes in each subregion. Reasonable basinwide water equivalent values are produced. The procedure should be useful for estimating snow water distribution in large mountainous watersheds.     

REAL-TIME SNOW SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE MONONGAHELA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pittsburgh District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, is responsible for operating two multipurpose reservoirs in the 7384 square mile (19198 square kilometer) Monongahela Basin. A third reservoir, presently under construction, will soon be operating. The real-time forecasting of runoff for operational purposes requires simulation of snow accumulation and snowmelt throughout the Basin during the winter season. This article describes capabilities of SNOSIM, a model being developed for performing such simulation. The application of this model as part of a comprehensive system of water control software, and some initial simulation results are presented.     

A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS1

ABSTRACT: Long-term climatic data from National Weather Service stations in six areas of the United States were utilized to develop regression equations relating a “snowfall index” parameter and air temperature. Nearly 200 stations, representing a wide range in physiographic and climatic conditions, were selected for analysis. Snowfall index is defined as the ratio of snowfall depth to precipitation. Using annual data, regression analysis indicated snowfall index to be significantly (α= 0.01) related to temperature for five of the six areas studied. Differences between equations were attributed to the effects of precipitation and temperature during non-snowfall periods. Mean monthly data were also considered and significant equations (α= 0.011, representing a family of similarly shaped curves, were obtained. The illustrated equations can be used for estimating mean monthly and annual snowfall amounts for stations having only temperature and precipitation measurements.     

青藏高原冰川雪冰微生物研究进展

微生物作为青藏高原冰川研究的一个参数,不仅能提供丰富的物种和嗜冷基因资源作用于冰川的能量和化学物质平衡,而且还与气候和环境相关联.近年来,青藏高原冰川雪藻的研究主要在南部的Yala冰川开展,细菌的研究集中在北部冰川.这些研究主要针对冰川雪冰微生物与环境的关系.未来除在研究方法上加以改进外,还应该在微生物多样性、生态意义、嗜冷机制及其与气候和环境的关系等方面进一步深入研究.参36