Tropical deforestation in a future international climate policy regime—lessons from the Brazilian Amazon

The possibility of adopting national targets for carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from tropical deforestation in a future international climate treaty has received increasing attention recently. This attention has been prompted by proposals to this end and more intensified talks on possible commitments for developing countries beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol. We analyze four main scientific and political challenges associated with national targets for emissions from tropical deforestation: (1) reducing the uncertainties in emission inventories, (2) preserving the environmental integrity of the treaty, (3) promoting political acceptance and participation in the regime, and (4) providing economic incentives for reduced deforestation. We draw the following conclusions. (1) Although there are large uncertainties in carbon flux from deforestation, these are in the same range as for other emissions included in the current Kyoto protocol (i.e., non-CO₂ GHGs), and they can be reduced. However, for forest degradation processes the uncertainties are larger. A large challenge lies in building competence and institutions for monitoring the full spectrum of land use changes in developing countries. (2 and 3) Setting targets for deforestation is difficult, and uncertainties in future emissions imply a risk of creating ‘tropical hot air’. However, there are proposals that may sufficiently deal with this, and these proposals may also have the advantage of making the targets more attractive, politically speaking. Moreover, we conclude that while a full carbon accounting system will likely be politically unacceptable for tropical countries, the current carbon accounting system should be broadened to include forest degradation in order to safeguard environmental integrity. (4) Doubts can be cast over the possible effect a climate regime alone will have on deforestation rates, though little thorough analysis of this issue has been made.

137Cs in the Danish Wadden Sea: contrast between tidal flats and salt marshes

The 137Cs activity of salt marsh and tidal flat sediments of the northern part of the European Wadden Sea was studied based on a comprehensive dataset of 210Pb dated cores. The 137Cs inventory of salt marsh sediments shows a major peak corresponding to the Chernobyl accident in 1986, and a minor peak located in the late 1960s interpreted as the combined effect of atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons. Emissions from the nuclear reprocessing plant Sellafield are not reflected as peaks in 137Cs activity, but may contribute to the rising 137Cs activity in the years prior to 1986. The 137Cs activity of tidal flat sediments differs from salt marsh sediment in two respects. First, the activity is much lower and, second, the major peak in the 1980s is located in the beginning instead of in the middle of the decade. The differences in 137Cs inventory between the two environments are interpreted to result from repeated cycles of deposition/resuspension and mixing on tidal flats. A simple model illustrating the consequence of mixings returns an apparent shift of major peaks in 137Cs activities backwards in time corresponding to the mixing depth divided by the deposition rate.     

Blood serum concentrations of perfluorinated compounds in men from Greenlandic Inuit and European populations

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs), such as perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), are used in large quantities. They are persistent and found in measurable levels in human serum around the world. They have been associated with developmental, hepatic, and carcinogenic effects in animal studies. The aim of the present study was to describe levels of PFCs in serum among Inuits from Greenland and inhabitants from Warsaw, Poland and Kharkiv, Ukraine. Furthermore, the aim was to define social- and lifestyle related determinants of exposure for these compounds. Serum levels of seven PFCs were analyzed by liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS). The concentrations of PFOS and PFOA were the highest of all PFCs in all three populations with a total amount of almost 90% of the PFCs. The mean levels of PFOS and PFOA were in the Greenlandic Inuits 52 and 4.8 ng mL(-1), in Poland 19 and 5.2 ng mL(-1), and in Ukraine 8.1 and 1.9 ng mL(-1), respectively. Thus, levels of PFCs in the serum of Inuits on Greenland were among the highest described in a general population whereas the levels in Poland were similar to other industrialized countries. The exposure in Ukraine was rather low. In the Greenlandic Inuit population, intake of seafood, tea, age and area of living were significant determinants of PFOS concentrations and explained about 22% of the variation. For the other populations no strong determinants were found.     

Charge-based fractionation of oxyanion-forming metals and metalloids leached from recycled concrete aggregates of different degrees of carbonation: A comparison of laboratory and field leaching tests

The release and charge-based fractionation of As, Cr, Mo, Sb, Se and V were evaluated in leachates generated from recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) in a laboratory and at a field site. The leachates, covering the pH range 8.4-12.6, were generated from non-carbonated, and artificially and naturally carbonated crushed concrete samples. Comparison between the release of the elements from the non-carbonated and carbonated samples indicated higher solubility of the elements from the latter. The laboratory leaching tests also revealed that the solubility of the elements is low at the “natural pH” of the non-carbonated materials and show enhancement when the pH is decreased. The charge-based fractionation of the elements was determined by ion-exchange solid phase extraction (SPE); it was found that all the target elements predominantly existed as anions in both the laboratory and field leachates. The high fraction of the anionic species of the elements in the leachates from the carbonated RCA materials verified the enhanced solubility of the oxyanionic species of the elements as a result of carbonation. The concentrations of the elements in the leachates and SPE effluents were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS).     

Vivianite precipitation and phosphate sorption following iron reduction in anoxic soils

Phosphorus retention in lowland soils depends on redox conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate how the Fe(III) reduction degree affects phosphate adsorption and precipitation. Two similarly P-saturated, ferric Fe-rich lowland soils, a sandy and a peat soil, were incubated under anaerobic conditions. M?ssbauer spectroscopy demonstrated that Fe(III) in the sandy soil was present as goethite and phyllosilicates, whereas Fe(III) in the peat soil was mainly present as polynuclear, Fe-humic complexes. Following anoxic incubation, extensive formation of Fe(II) in the solids occurred. After 100 d, the Fe(II) production reached its maximum and 34% of the citrate-bicarbonate-dithionite extractable Fe (Fe(CBD)) was reduced to Fe(II) in the sandy soil. The peat soil showed a much faster reduction of Fe(III) and the maximum reduction of 89% of Fe(CBD) was reached after 200 d. Neoformation of a metavivianite/vivianite phase under anoxic conditions was identified by X-ray diffraction in the peat. The sandy soil exhibited small changes in the point of zero net sorption (EPC?) and P(i) desorption with increasing Fe(III) reduction, whereas in the peat soil P desorption increased from 80 to 3100 μmol kg?1 and EPC? increased from 1.7 to 83 μM, after 322 d of anoxic incubation. The fast Fe(III) reduction made the peat soils particularly vulnerable to changes in redox conditions. However, the precipitation of vivianite/metavivianite minerals may control soluble P(i) concentrations to between 2 and 3 μM in the long term if the soil is not disturbed.     

Numerical analysis of water and solute transport in variably-saturated fractured clayey till

This study numerically investigates the influence of initial water content and rain intensities on the preferential migration of two fluorescent tracers, Acid Yellow 7 (AY7) and Sulforhodamine B (SB), through variably-saturated fractured clayey till. The simulations are based on the numerical model HydroGeoSphere, which solves 3D variably-saturated flow and solute transport in discretely-fractured porous media. Using detailed knowledge of the matrix, fracture, and biopore properties, the numerical model is calibrated and validated against experimental high-resolution tracer images/data collected under dry and wet soil conditions and for three different rain events. The model could reproduce reasonably well the observed preferential migration of AY7 and SB through the fractured till, although it did not capture the exact depth of migration and the negligible impact of the dead-end biopores in a near-saturated matrix. A sensitivity analysis suggests fast flow mechanisms and dynamic surface coating in the biopores, and the presence of a plough pan in the till.     

Conflicts between stakeholder groups affecting the ecology and economy of the Segara Anakan region

This study analyses how the conflict potential between different stakeholder groups is affecting the ecology and economy of the Segara Anakan region, a mangrove-fringed lagoon in central Java, Indonesia. The lagoon’s increasing sedimentation/silting up and the area’s expanding population has led to various interest groups conflicting with one another over how the resources of the lagoon and its surrounding area are to be utilized. Conflicts arise between occupational and ethnic groups in the lagoon’s bordering villages in the context of a transformation from fisheries to wetland agriculture. Land and mangrove use is therefore a cause for conflict between multiple groups, including Javanese fishermen, Sundanese farmers from Central and West Java and external shrimp farm owners. A result of the “Segara Anakan Development Project”—an 8-year undertaking that began in 1996—is that the lagoon was frequently dredged. Due to the dredging and resulting contamination of the land, a regional clash was triggered between Sundanese farmers and Javanese fishers. Our study reveals that the conflict potential between the various interest groups in the Segara Anakan Lagoon area could be reduced if the scarcity of natural resources were alleviated. Religious aspects also play a large role in marine resource utilization. Recognizing that the human utilization of natural resources is strongly symbolic and thereby culturally defined, we unravel the resource conflicts in our study area and offer some strategic approaches towards more sustainable outcomes.     

Current Status of Air Quality Models for Particulate Matter

ABSTRACT

The current status of the mathematical modeling of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) is reviewed in this paper. Simulating PM requires treating various processes, including the formation of condensable species, the gas/ particle partitioning of condensable compounds, and in some cases, the evolution of the particle size distribution. The algorithms available to simulate these processes are reviewed and discussed. Eleven 3-dimensional (3-D) Eulerian air quality models for PM are reviewed in terms of their formulation and past applications. Results of past performance evaluations of 3-D Eulerian PM models are presented. Currently, 24-hr average PM_2.5 concentrations appear to be predicted within 50% for urban-scale domains. However, there are compensating errors among individual particulate species. The lowest errors tend to be associated with SO₄ ^2-, while NO₃ ^-, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) typically show larger errors due to uncertainties in emissions inventories and the prediction of the secondary OC fraction. Further improvements and performance evaluations are recommended.     

Ozone Formation in California's San Joaquin Valley: A Critical Assessment of Modeling and Data Needs

ABSTRACT

Data from the 1990 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study/ Atmospheric Utility Signatures, Predictions, and Experiments (SJVAQS/AUSPEX) field program in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) suggest that both urban and rural areas would have difficulty meeting an 8-hr average O₃ standard of 80 ppb. A conceptual model of O₃ formation and accumulation in the SJV is formulated based on the chemical, meteorological, and tracer data from SJVAQS/ AUSPEX. Two major phenomena appear to lead to high O₃ concentrations in the SJV: (1) transport of O₃ and precursors from upwind areas (primarily the San Francisco Bay Area, but also the Sacramento Valley) into the SJV, affecting the northern part of the valley, and (2) emissions of precursors, mixing, transport (including long-range transport), and atmospheric reactions within the SJV responsible for regional and urban-scale (e.g., downwind of Fresno and Bakersfield) distributions of O₃. Using this conceptual model, we then conduct a critical evaluation of the meteorological model and air quality model. Areas of model improvements and data needed to understand and properly simulate O₃ formation in the SJV are highlighted.