An Optimization Method Based on Scenario Analysis for Watershed Management Under Uncertainty

In conjunction with socioeconomic development in watersheds, increasingly challenging problems, such as scarcity of water resources and environmental deterioration, have arisen. Watershed management is a useful tool for dealing with these issues and maintaining sustainable development at the watershed scale. The complex and uncertain characteristics of watershed systems have a great impact on decisions about countermeasures and other techniques that will be applied in the future. An optimization method based on scenario analysis is proposed in this paper as a means of handling watershed management under uncertainty. This method integrates system analysis, forecast methods, and scenario analysis, as well as the contributions of stakeholders and experts, into a comprehensive framework. The proposed method comprises four steps: system analyses, a listing of potential engineering techniques and countermeasures, scenario analyses, and the optimal selection of countermeasures and engineering techniques. The proposed method was applied to the case of the Lake Qionghai watershed in southwestern China, and the results are reported in this paper. This case study demonstrates that the proposed method can be used to deal efficiently with uncertainties at the watershed level. Moreover, this method takes into consideration the interests of different groups, which is crucial for successful watershed management. In particular, social, economic, environmental, and resource systems are all considered in order to improve the applicability of the method. In short, the optimization method based on scenario analysis proposed here is a valuable tool for watershed management.     

2021年春节期间陕西省烟花爆竹燃放对PM2.5的影响

通过对比2021年春节烟花爆竹集中燃放时段和前期非集中燃放时段的PM_2.5浓度及特征组分浓度,分析了烟花爆竹集中燃放对陕西省PM_2.5的影响情况。分析结果显示,2021年春节烟花爆竹集中燃放时段,关中和陕南地区PM_2.5浓度增幅大且高值持续时间长,陕北地区PM_2.5浓度增幅小且高值持续时间短。陕北和陕南地区PM_2.5小时浓度峰值出现在2月12日(初一)00:00前后,关中地区略晚。西安市PM_2.5特征组分中,K⁺、Cl^-、SO₄^2-、NO₃^-、Mg²⁺、Al³⁺、Cu²⁺、Si²⁺、Ba²⁺的浓度分别为6.61、7.20、12.83、23.96、1.36、2.91、0.23、0.27、0.86 μg/m³,明显高于非集中燃放时段。烟花爆竹燃放对陕南地区PM_2.5的贡献率和贡献量均高于关中和陕北地区;对郊县PM_2.5的贡献率高于城区,且对郊县的贡献率正值的出现时间早于城区。除榆林市外,陕西省其他城市的城区均受到了相关郊县烟花爆竹燃放的影响。     

Potential health risk of arsenic and cadmium in groundwater near Xiangjiang River, China: a case study for risk assessment and management of toxic substances

As part of our efforts to find effective methods to the drinking water risk management, the health risk assessment of arsenic and cadmium in groundwater near Xiangjiang River was analyzed. The results suggest that although the arsenic and cadmium concentrations in 97% of groundwater sources are less than the requirement of Water Quality Standards for Drinking Water (GB5749-2006) in China, the residents served by almost all of the investigated centralized drinking water sources have a significant potential health risk by consumption, especially cancer risk. It is justified through analyses that risk assessment is an effective tool for risk management, and the maximum permissible concentration of arsenic and cadmium in drinking water (0.01 and 0.005?mg L^-1, respectively) is suitable for China at present, considering the current economic status of China. Risk managers develop cleanup standards designed to protect against all possible adverse effects, which should take into account highly exposed individuals, effects of mixtures of toxic substances, attendant uncertainties, and other factors such as site-specific (or generic) criteria, technical feasibility, cost?Cbenefit analyses, and sociopolitical concerns.     

Chemical composition of PM10 and PM2.5 collected at ground level and 100 meters during a strong winter-time pollution episode in Xi'an, China

An intensive sampling of aerosol particles from ground level and 100 m was conducted during a strong pollution episode during the winter in Xi'an, China. Concentrations of water-soluble inorganic ions, carbonaceous compounds, and trace elements were determined to compare the composition of particulate matter (PM) at the two heights. PM mass concentrations were high at both stations: PM10 (PM with aerodynamic diameter < or =10 microm) exceeded the China National Air Quality Standard Class II value on three occasions, and PM2.5 (PM with aerodynamic diameter < or =2.5 microm) exceeded the daily U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard more than 10 times. The PM10 organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) were slightly lower at the ground than at 100 m, both in terms of concentration and percentage of total mass, but OC and EC in PM2.5 exhibited the opposite pattern. Major ionic species, such as sulfate and nitrate, showed vertical variations similar to the carbonaceous aerosols. High sulfate concentrations indicated that coal combustion dominated the PM mass both at the ground and 100 m. Correlations between K+ and OC and EC at 100 m imply a strong influence from suburban biomass burning, whereas coal combustion and motor vehicle exhaust had a greater influence on the ground PM. Stable atmospheric conditions apparently led to the accumulation of PM, especially at 100 m, and these conditions contributed to the similarities in PM at the two elevations. Low coefficient of divergence (CD) values reflect the similarities in the composition of the aerosol between sites, but higher CDs for fine particles compared with coarse ones were consistent with the differences in emission sources between the ground and 100 m.     

用于水处理的高效除磷型粉煤灰陶粒滤料的研制

为制备用于处理含磷废水的新型功能陶粒滤料,研究了以粉煤灰为主要原料的高效除磷型陶粒烧结制备工艺。通过L9（34）正交实验和极差分析,结合筒压强度实验得到最佳烧结条件为：预热时间30 min,烧结温度950℃,烧结时间30 min;各因子对除磷效率的影响程度为：烧结温度〉烧结时间〉预热时间。通过理化性质测试得出最佳工艺制备的陶粒特性：堆积密度为877 kg/m3,表观密度为1 509 kg/m3,空隙率为41.9%,筒压强度6.94 MPa,盐酸可溶率为2.3%。应用最佳工艺条件所制备的陶粒处理10 mg/L含磷废水获得高达99.83%的磷酸盐去除率。通过最佳烧结工艺能够制备高效除磷型粉煤灰陶粒滤料,在处理含磷废水方面具有一定的应用前景。     

大连湾污染排放总量控制研究：海湾纳污能力计算模型

基于质量守恒原理和线性迭加原理，导出了受纳水域对污染源的响应关系，建立了海域污染总量控制的计算模式，计算了大连湾的容许入海负荷总量，各排污口的污染分担率和削减率，为大连湾污染源治理提供了科学依据。     

三维溢油动态预报模式

基于“油粒子”概述建立了模拟海上溢油行为的三维数值模型。模型运用确定性方法模拟平流过程，采用随机性方法模拟湍流扩散过程，“粒子扩散”方法避开了“平流－扩散”传统数值方法所导致的伪扩散效应，同时将油由于自身特性和扩展与受环境动力作用的被动扩展融为一体，较好地解决了油膜的扩散和破裂问题，通过模拟结果与卫星遥感监测资料的比较表明，模拟的溢油漂移方向误差不超过２０°，厚油区的分布面积与卫片资料基本一致。     

制定环境与可靠性规范与标准的新思路

介绍制定环境与可靠性规范与标准的新观点。它包括按产品研制各阶段分别征询意见；按征询的意见确定环境任务；为顺利执行环境任务而配备的手册或工具。文章对如何、向谁征询意见、各产品研制阶段应确定哪些环境任务以及应配哪些手册或工具作了介绍。最后文章提出了４条有关发展环境与可靠性规范与标准的建议。     

水体病原微生物定量风险评价:历史、现状与发展趋势

环境风险评价是成型于1970年代的多学科交叉新兴领域,为环境风险管理提供决策的科学依据.环境风险评价研究的发展经历以意外事故为风险源的事故风险评价,以化学品为风险源和人体健康为风险受体的健康风险评价,以生态系统为风险受体的生态风险评价.以微生物污染为风险源和人体健康为风险受体的定量微生物风险评价(QMRA)也于1990年代开始发展.QMRA确定微生物的摄入量及其对人体产生不良作用概率之间关系的数学描述.作为一种前沿的微生物健康风险评估手段,QMRA为公共卫生政策和标准制定、采取可行的健康干预决策提供有力支撑,已被美国、加拿大、荷兰、澳大利亚等多个国家应用于环境管理.本文梳理了环境风险评价的发展历史,系统详细综述水媒传播病原微生物定量风险评价的研究与应用,同时指出当前QMRA面临的问题并提出针对性的建议.     

Ag/TiO2光催化降解H酸的研究

采用光化学沉积法制备了Ag TiO2 光催化剂 ,并对典型难生物降解的有机污染物H酸进行了光催化降解研究。结果表明 ,质量分数 1 0 %担载量的Ag能显著提高TiO2 光催化活性 ,可在较短时间内实现对H酸较高的降解效率