中国反刍动物甲烷排放量的初步估算及减缓技术

根据ＯＥＣＤ提供的反刍动物甲烷排放量计算方法，结合中国反刍动物能量供应的特点，初步估算了中国反刍动物甲烷排放量。反刍动物摄入总能量的６．９％～７．５％通过甲烷排放而损失掉，１９９０年甲烷排放量为５．８０Ｔｇ，约为全球动物排放量的７．２％。文中提出采取秸秆处理，舔砖和过瘤蛋白使用，改善管理等改进措施，不仅可以提高生产水平，也可减少甲烷排放量。     

Causasilty among wildfire,ENSO, timber harvest,and urban sprawl: The vector autoregression approach

This article demonstrates the applicability of vector autoregression (VAR) modeling in probing the causality relationships among wildfire, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), timber harvest, and urban sprawl in the U.S. The VAR approach allows for the multi-directional, multi-faceted interactions among the variables concerned and enables us to portray the temporal impacts of ENSO, the volume of timber harvested, and urban sprawl on wildfire. The empirical analysis, though intended mainly for illustration, reveals that an individual factor may not affect wildfire activity (number of fires and area burned) when acting alone, but can significantly influence fire activity when coupled with other factors, and that wildfire activity has feedback effects on other variables. The impact of a change in ENSO, the volume of timber harvested, and urban population density on wildfire activity could last two decades with the most noticeable impact occurring in the initial 5–10 years. Though ENSO, timber harvest, and urban sprawl all Granger-cause wildfire activity, the impulse response functions show that wildfire activity is more responsive to urban population density than to the volume of timber harvested or ENSO. Thus, controlling urban sprawl represents another option for wildfire mitigation; and integrative wildfire management is essential.     

Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate effects. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are animportant part of emissions from deforestation inlow-latitude regions, also pose complications forcomparisons between fossil fuel and LUCF, since themechanism generally used to compare these gases(global warming potentials) assumes simultaneousemissions. A common numeraire is needed to expressglobal warming mitigation benefits of different kindsof projects, such as fossil fuel emissions reduction,C sequestration in forest plantations, avoideddeforestation by creating protected areas and throughpolicy changes to slow rates of land-use changes suchas clearing. Megagram (Mg)-year (also known as`ton-year') accounting provides a mechanism forexpressing the benefits of activities such as these ona consistent basis. One can calculate the atmosphericload of each GHG that will be present in each year,expressed as C in the form of CO₂ and itsinstantaneous impact equivalent contributed by othergases. The atmospheric load of CO₂-equivalent Cpresent over a time horizon is a possible indicator ofthe climatic impact of the emission that placed thisload in the atmosphere. Conversely, this index alsoprovides a measure of the benefit of notproducing the emission. One accounting methodcompares sequestered CO₂ in trees with theCO₂ that would be in the atmosphere had thesequestration project not been undertaken, whileanother method (used in this paper) compares theatmospheric load of C (or equivalent in non-CO₂GHGs) in both project and no-project scenarios.Time preference, expressed by means of a discount rateon C, can be applied to Mg-year equivalencecalculations to allow societal decisions regarding thevalue of time to be integrated into the system forcalculating global warming impacts and benefits. Giving a high value to time, either by raising thediscount rate or by shortening the time horizon,increases the value attributed to temporarysequestration (such as many forest plantationprojects). A high value for time also favorsmitigation measures that have rapid effects (such asslowing deforestation rates) as compared to measuresthat only affect emissions years in the future (suchas creating protected areas in countries with largeareas of remaining forest). Decisions on temporalissues will guide mitigation efforts towards optionsthat may or may not be desirable on the basis ofsocial and environmental effects in spheres other thanglobal warming. How sustainable development criteriaare incorporated into the approval and creditingsystems for activities under the Kyoto Protocol willdetermine the overall environmental and social impactsof pending decisions on temporal issues.     

Adaptation Options Strategies for Hazards and Vulnerability Mitigation: An International Perspective

The broad objective of this special issue of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change is to address some of the gaps in our knowledge and understanding of the policies, programs, and measures that might be applied to natural hazards and their impacts in an era of climate change. Given the global impacts of climate change and world-wide pattern of increasing losses from natural hazards we necessarily adopt an international perspective. The specific goals of the special issue are to: (a) encompass experiential aspects, emphasizing current practice of mitigation and its associated measures, and their results; and (b) explore primary or root causes of alarming shifts in human and economic costs of environmental extremes. Special emphasis is placed on how human activities are playing a key role in enhancing vulnerability to NTEE (nature-triggered environmental extremes), quite independently from the anthropogenic causes of climate change. The goals are also (c) to examine costs, risks, and benefits (of all kinds including social, political, ecological) of mitigation, and adjustment and adaptation measures; and (d) analyze policy implications of alternative measures. These components are expected to make significant contributions to policy considerations – formulation, implementation and evaluation. There is much uncertainty about the rate of climate change; however, the fact of increase of the atmospheric temperature in the last century is no longer a subject of scientific or policy debate. Due to such changes in the geophysical parameters, certain types of nature-triggered environmental extreme events are likely to continue to increase. How global warming will affect regional climates and pertinent variables is not well known, limiting our ability to predict consequential effects. This factor poses serious constraints against any straightforward policy decisions. Research findings of the work of this volume reaffirm that human dimensions, specifically our awareness and decision-making behavior, are powerful explanatory factors of increasing disaster losses. Disaster mitigation through addressing human, social, and physical vulnerability is one of the best means for contributing to ‘climate change adaptation plans’, and sustainable development goals. Recent lessons from various countries have depicted that the formulation of mitigation strategies cannot be exclusively top-down as it requires social, political, and cultural acceptance and sense of ownership. An interactive, participatory process, involving local communities, produces best expected outcomes concerning mitigation, preparedness, and recovery. An emerging consensus is that there is a need to move towards the ‘mission’ of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction which aims at building disaster resilient communities by promoting increased awareness of the importance of disaster reduction as an integral component of sustainable development, with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters. Sharing of best practices and lessons globally is certain to produce more efficiency and understanding in policy and decision making.     

我国典型露地蔬菜生产中的温室气体排放

基于国家农业统计数据,以露地番茄、黄瓜、大白菜和萝卜为研究对象,应用生命周期评价(life cycle assessment,LCA)方法,定量化我国4种典型露地蔬菜生产中的净温室气体排放(net greenhouse gas emission,NGHGE),并比较蔬菜种类间、省域间净温室气体排放差异和分析减排措施.结果表明:我国典型露地蔬菜生产系统温室气体排放量远高于其带来的碳固定量,是净温室气体排放系统,生产单位面积露地番茄、黄瓜、大白菜和萝卜净温室气体排放(以CO_2-eq计)分别为4 149、 3 718、 3 780和2 427 kg·hm~(-2),不同种类露地蔬菜净温室气体排放差异大;我国典型露地蔬菜净温室气体排放空间差异大,其中,海南、云南、陕西和山东等省份番茄、黄瓜、大白菜和萝卜净温室气体排放高;肥料生产运输和施用是露地蔬菜温室气体排放的主要贡献因子,贡献率为86.8%～90.8%,因此改善肥料生产工艺降低肥料生产运输过程中的温室气体排放和根据露地蔬菜种类及种植地区优化肥料施用量是实现我国露地蔬菜可持续发展的重要措施.     

“城市地震安全社区”建设方法研究——以昌平区“城市地震安全社区”建设为例

当前国内各"安全社区"建设还都没有考虑地震安全建设,而地震安全已经是当今城市发展中越来越突出的问题."城市地震安全社区"建设是保障人民生命财产安全和社会经济的可持续发展,是构建平安和谐社会的重要组成部分.本文通过在北京市昌平区积极开展"城市地震安全示范社区"建设与合作研究,探索出了"地震安全社区"建设内容和评估标准,为制定全国"城市地震安全社区"建设标准提供科学依据.     

Forecasting the effects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution of groundwater and surface waters

We used the interdisciplinary model network REGFLUD to predict the actual mean nitrate concentration in percolation water at the scale of the Weser river basin (Germany) using an area differentiated (100 m × 100 m) approach.REGFLUD combines the agro-economic model RAUMIS for estimating nitrogen surpluses and the hydrological models GROWA/DENUZ for assessing the nitrate leaching from the soil.For areas showing predicted nitrate concentrations in percolation water above the European Union (EU) groundwater quality standard of 50 mg NO 3 -N/L,effective agri-environmental reduction measures need to be derived and implemented to improve groundwater and surface water quality by 2015.The effects of already implemented agricultural policy are quantified by a baseline scenario projecting the N-surpluses from agricultural sector to 2015.The REGFLUD model is used to estimate the effects of this scenario concerning groundwater and surface water pollution by nitrate.From the results of the model analysis the needs for additional measures can be derived in terms of required additional N-surplus reduction and in terms of regional prioritization of measures.Research work will therefore directly support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive of the European Union in the Weser basin.     

Forecasting the e ects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution of groundwater and surface waters

We used the interdisciplinary model network REGFLUD to predict the actual mean nitrate concentration in percolation water at the scale of the Weser river basin (Germany) using an area di erentiated (100 m 100 m) approach. REGFLUD combines the agro-economic model RAUMIS for estimating nitrogen surpluses and the hydrological models GROWA/DENUZ for assessing the nitrate leaching from the soil. For areas showing predicted nitrate concentrations in percolation water above the European Union (EU) groundwater quality standard of 50 mg NO3-N/L, e ective agri-environmental reduction measures need to be derived and implemented to improve groundwater and surface water quality by 2015. The e ects of already implemented agricultural policy are quantified by a baseline scenario projecting the N-surpluses from agricultural sector to 2015. The REGFLUD model is used to estimate the e ects of this scenario concerning groundwater and surface water pollution by nitrate. From the results of the model analysis the needs for additional measures can be derived in terms of required additional N-surplus reduction and in terms of regional prioritization of measures. Research work will therefore directly support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive of the European Union in the Weser basin.     

湖北省油菜测土配方施肥下N2O减排潜力估算

以油菜种植大省-湖北省为案例地,在分析农田氮肥施用与油菜籽产量的基础上,依据氮肥利用率变化,估算测土配方施肥技术在湖北省全面推广的情况下,带来的N2O减排潜力.结果表明,在湖北省油菜种植中,测土配方施肥技术的推广将带来646.32ktCO2-eq的理论减排.以2012年湖北省油菜测土配方推广情况为基础,进一步全面实施该项技术,将产生173.91ktCO2-eq的减排量,占油菜种植因氮肥使用而产生的N2O排放总量的13.98%.测土配方施肥通过优化营养元素配比,提高油菜氮肥利用效率,是一项控制与减少农业N2O排放、减少氮素在环境中盈余量的有效措施.     

改性黏土絮凝海洋原甲藻对水体中氮、磷的影响研究

通过对比研究典型有害微藻海洋原甲藻(Prorocentrum micans Ehrenberg)自然消亡(A1组)及改性黏土絮凝(A2组)两种体系,考察两体系中氮、磷等主要水质因子的变化情况.结果表明,改性黏土能有效去除P. micans并影响其后期生长状态,0.4g/L改性黏土添加3.5h后去除率可达60%以上,且藻密度无二次增长.改性黏土絮凝藻华过程中能有效去除水体营养元素, A2组DIP和DIN较A1组分别降低85%和35%.另外,添加改性黏土对水体有机氮、磷影响值得关注,第33d A2组TON和TOP较A1组分别减少约120, 6μmol/L. 改性黏土对有机氮、磷存在一定的埋存保护作用,通过吸附絮凝、螯合等作用使有机氮、磷脱离水体系统,而自然消亡体系中的微藻消亡后将通过分解、矿化等过程快速进入水体参与再循环.该研究系统阐述了改性黏土絮凝P. micans对水体营养环境的影响,以期为现场治理提供理论支持.