我国已建立大气污染联防联控技术示范区

正科技部社会发展科技司司长马燕合2014年3月3日表示,我国已在珠江三角洲建立了大气污染联防联控技术示范区,组建了覆盖区域的大气环境质量监测预警网络,形成了区域空气质量管理体系等运行机制.马燕合表示,该示范区是继美国加州和欧洲之后,全球第3个类似的大气污染联防联控技术示范区.可实现对珠     

Review on water leakage control in distribution networks and the associated environmental benefits

Water supply is the primary element of an urban system. Due to rapid urbanization and water scarcity, maintaining a stable and safe water supply has become a challenge to many cities, whereas a large amount of water is lost from the pipes of distribution systems. Water leakage is not only a waste of water resources, but also incurs great socio-economic costs. This article presents a comprehensive review on the potential water leakage control approaches and specifically discusses the benefits of each to environmental conservation. It is concluded that water leakage could be further reduced by improving leakage detection capability through a combination of predictive modeling and monitoring instruments, optimizing pipe maintenance strategy, and developing an instant pressure regulation system. The environment could benefit from these actions because of water savings and the reduction of energy consumption as well as greenhouse gas emissions.     

Fast increasing of surface ozone concentrations in Pearl River Delta characterized by a regional air quality monitoring network during 2006-2011

Based on the observation by a Regional Air Quality Monitoring Network including 16 monitoring stations, temporal and spatial variations of ozone(O3), NO2and total oxidant(Ox) were analyzed by both linear regression and cluster analysis. A fast increase of regional O3concentrations of 0.86 ppbV/yr was found for the annual averaged values from 2006 to 2011 in Guangdong, China. Such fast O3increase is accompanied by a correspondingly fast NOx reduction as indicated by a fast NO2 reduction rate of 0.61 ppbV/yr. Based on a cluster analysis, the monitoring stations were classified into two major categories – rural stations(non-urban) and suburban/urban stations. The O3concentrations at rural stations were relatively conserved while those at suburban/urban stations showed a fast increase rate of 2.0 ppbV/yr accompanied by a NO2 reduction rate of 1.2 ppbV/yr. Moreover, a rapid increase of the averaged O3 concentrations in springtime(13%/yr referred to 2006 level) was observed, which may result from the increase of solar duration, reduction of precipitation in Guangdong and transport from Eastern Central China. Application of smog production algorithm showed that the photochemical O3production is mainly volatile organic compounds(VOC)-controlled. However, the photochemical O3production is sensitive to both NOx and VOC for O3pollution episode. Accordingly, it is expected that a combined NOx and VOC reduction will be helpful for the reduction of the O3 pollution episodes in Pearl River Delta while stringent VOC emission control is in general required for the regional O3 pollution control.     

浅议浙江省辐射环境监测网络建设

面对新形势和新要求,进一步推进浙江省辐射环境监测网络建设是加强核与辐射安全监督管理、有效预警和及时处置突发核与辐射事故的必要基础。本文报道了浙江省辐射环境监测网络的建设情况和现状,初步分析了辐射环境监测网络存在的问题以及加强建设的建议。     

我国基于互联网进行环境治理的现状问题及建议(下篇)

本文初步探讨了互联网时代环境治理的特征,系统分析总结了我国现阶段各社会主体基于互联网开展环境治理的现状及问题,并对我国政府环保部门如何推动互联网时代环境治理改革提出建议。此文为下篇。     

网络传播环境下的沉默螺旋和反沉默螺旋现象分析——以天涯论坛和《非你莫属》为例

沉默的螺旋理论作为传播学的基础理论,在传播学界关于舆论学的研究中享有极高的声誉。随着互联网的普及,民众越来越多的通过网络表达意见,这一理论在理论和实践上都受到了一定的质疑,出现了反沉默螺旋理论。本文运用内容分析法,通过对具体案例的考察和分析,阐述了现代网络传播环境下沉默螺旋和反沉默螺旋并存的现象。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的民航空中停车事件安全风险评估

为探究组织和人的因素对发动机空中停车事件的影响及其演化情况,评估航空公司空停事件的风险水平,基于动态贝叶斯网络(DBN),构建一种适用于民航空停的风险评估模型。首先,运用主动与被动相结合的方式,识别影响发动机发生空停事件的组织和人的因素;其次,利用毕达哥拉斯模糊和决策试验与评估实验室(DEMATEL)方法,探究各个风险因素之间的因果关系;然后,基于得到的风险因素因果关系构建民航空停DBN,依据统计分析和专家经验确定民航空停的DBN参数,通过GeNle概率推理,进一步得出空停事件发生的概率;最后,以S航空公司的CFM56-5B发动机为例,评估民航空停事件安全风险。结果表明：2020—2021年,S航空公司的CFM56-5B发动机发生空停事件的概率分别为1.260×10^-6、1.352×10^-6;导致民航空停事件安全风险变化的主要原因是资源投入减少导致教育培训效果降低进而影响作风意识和合作沟通。     

小样本条件下地铁运营事故致因推理模型

为克服传统事故致因推理模型不适用于小样本条件下的地铁运营事故致因推理的缺陷,将贝叶斯网络(BN)与Bootstrap抽样法、D-S证据理论相结合,建立地铁运营事故致因推理模型。首先,分析历年地铁运营事故样本,确定事故致因因素及网络节点;其次,基于BN的基本算法和理论,运用Bootstrap抽样法和K2算法进行BN结构学习;然后,使用D-S证据理论修正BN参数,建立适用于小样本条件下的地铁运营事故致因BN模型;最后,进行因果推理、诊断推理和敏感性分析。结果表明：所构建的地铁运营事故致因推理模型可有效进行事故推理预测,节点预测精度均值为0.858;通过因果推理得出最常见的地铁运营事故类型为运营中断,其次是火灾和列车冲突;结合诊断推理发现供电系统故障是导致运营中断的最主要事故致因。     

房屋建筑施工事故致因因素分类研究

为明确房屋建筑施工事故致因及其关联关系,针对房屋建筑施工过程中关键致因因素及其传播路径的有效识别问题,基于2015—2020年发生的394起房屋建筑施工事故案例,结合危险有害因素分类标准,将语义相近的风险用语归为一类,进行致因因素的提取、分类及编码;针对每一起事故建立致因因素传播路径,应用Gephi软件绘制出由95个节点、340条连边构成的房屋建筑施工事故致因网络模型;通过计算节点度值和权重系数等拓扑参数,分析致因网络拓扑特征,综合考虑节点总度值分类赋值及严重程度,利用ABC分类法提出致因因素重要性计算方法。研究结果表明：致因因素清单中包含28项关键致因因素、27项次要致因因素、31项一般致因因素;进一步分析得到24个关联性强的节点对、5条高频致因因素传播路径以及5类典型事故的致因因素分布状况。     

基于视频分析的空管员违规行为识别方法*

为利用视频数据对空管员违规行为进行智能化分析,降低不安全事件发生率,提出2阶段的违规行为识别模型（AR-ResNeXt）,基于实地调研构建空管员视频数据集,利用最小化动态多实例学习损失函数和中心损失函数,获得违规行为检测的判别特征表示,结合异常回归网络和ResNeXt网络,完成对空管员违规行为的时序区间检测与动作分类。研究结果表明:AR-ResNeXt模型在自制数据集中,其帧级AUC达到82.9%,分类准确率达到87.8%,可准确识别空管员发生违规行为的时序区间并进行分类,研究结果可为保障空中交通安全奠定基础。