安全等级特征量及其计算方法

指出了目前用模糊评价法确定系统的安全等级所存在的问题和不足之处。分别运用模糊随机变量理论和模糊集理论而提出了安全等级模糊随机特征量和安全等级模糊特征量的概念及其计算方法。安全等级特征量及安全等级变量,均为安全等级取值论域上的模糊子集,而并非是一个确定的点。还给出了安全等级的绝对可能性和相对可能性的计算方法。实例表明,笔者所提出的安全等级特征量及可能性的计算方法是科学的、合理的     

Estimating pesticide runoff in small streams

Surface runoff is one of the most important pathways for pesticides to enter surface waters. Mathematical models are employed to characterize its spatio-temporal variability within landscapes, but they must be simple owing to the limited availability and low resolution of data at this scale. This study aimed to validate a simplified spatially-explicit model that is developed for the regional scale to calculate the runoff potential (RP). The RP is a generic indicator of the magnitude of pesticide inputs into streams via runoff. The underlying runoff model considers key environmental factors affecting runoff (precipitation, topography, land use, and soil characteristics), but predicts losses of a generic substance instead of any one pesticide. We predicted and evaluated RP for 20 small streams. RP input data were extracted from governmental databases. Pesticide measurements from a triennial study were used for validation. Measured pesticide concentrations were standardized by the applied mass per catchment and the water solubility of the relevant compounds. The maximum standardized concentration per site and year (runoff loss, R_Loss) provided a generalized measure of observed pesticide inputs into the streams. Average RP explained 75% (p < 0.001) of the variance in R_Loss. Our results imply that the generic indicator can give an adequate estimate of runoff inputs into small streams, wherever data of similar resolution are available. Therefore, we suggest RP for a first quick and cost-effective location of potential runoff hot spots at the landscape level.     

A botanical importance rating system for estuaries

In many semi-arid areas, estuaries are threatened because of freshwater impoundment. Estuaries are important sites for ecological diversity and, increasingly, for recreation. A system has been developed which rates estuaries according to their botanical importance. A formula allows a single numerical importance score to be calculated. The area cover of each estuarine plant community type (i.e. intertidal salt marsh, submerged macrophytes, reed/sedge swamps and supratidal salt marsh) and its importance in the estuary forms the basis of the score. The ‘ecological condition’ of the plant community and the community richness within the estuary are incorporated into the formula. The formula is effective in determining the botanical importance of estuaries. Further methods to determine the zoological, physical and socio-economic importance of estuaries need to be developed to allow the overall importance of estuaries to be determined.     

Evaluation and valuation of wildlife resources

Issues of resource conservation and development are essentially about choice between alternative uses of land. Resource evaluation in rural planning has usually been based on assessments of land quality or capability in relation to a variety of alternative uses. In the case of wildlife, choices have to be made as to whether the wildlife resource is worth conserving at all and if so, which sites should be used. Considerable efforts have been made to rationalise, improve and make explicit the way in which choices are made, and this paper reviews the current position and draws attention to issues and developments which could lead to improvements in current practice.     

A Baumol–Oates approach to solid waste taxation

A national Baumol–Oates tax on waste in Denmark helped achieve a reduction of 26% in net solid waste from 1987 to 1998. The tax, which is levied per ton of waste, was particularly effective as regards the heavier waste streams such as construction waste and garden waste. When it comes to industrial and commercial waste, there are indications that the waste tax is not sufficiently significant to induce changes in behavior, and that except for very waste-intensive enterprises, companies do not seem to be very price sensitive. For household waste, the impact of the tax can be improved where tariffs for garbage collection are weight based, rather than per unit. However, the waste sector is an area in which the price signals are modified and filtered by institutionalized practices in municipal administration, and in which true-cost pricing is not easy to achieve. Hence, the rational choice assumption of environmental economics needs to be supplemented by an institutional dimension to interpret responses to environmental taxes correctly. Received: July 13, 2001 / Accepted: October 2, 2001     

矿井主通风机叶轮磨损失效的评价

矿井主通风机叶轮严重磨损威胁着矿井安全生产 ,研究主通风机叶轮磨损和正确地评价叶轮的磨损失效 ,对煤矿安全生产具有重大的现实意义。应用气—固两相流动理论分析了主通风机叶轮的磨损部位 ,结论与现场叶轮的实际磨损相吻合。提出了叶轮磨损过程的 3个阶段。利用材料磨损理论分析了主通风机叶轮磨损机理 ,得出了叶轮磨损是以气体动力学磨料的冲蚀磨损为主 ,低应力擦伤型磨料磨损、腐蚀磨损为辅的结论。依据国家标准 ,结合矿井主通风机工作特点 ,从安全角度提出了矿井主通风机叶轮磨损永久失效的判据 ,并给出了判定标准。     

简易石灰石/石膏湿法烟气脱硫技术在连州电厂的应用

在介绍了连州电厂的广东省第一套简易石灰石／石膏湿法烟气脱硫（FGD）系统主要设计参数和工艺流程的基础上，重点对FGD系统在近2年的运动过程中出现的主要问题进行了分析，包括系统与锅炉的相互影响，烟道腐蚀问题，脱硫石膏与灰渣水的混排及吸收塔内搅拌器叶片的损坏等，同时从技术，经济两方面对该套FGD系统进行了总体的评价。     

Multicriteria analysis as a tool to investigate compatibility between conservation and development on Salina Island,Aeolian Archipelago,Italy

Several multicriteria evaluation techniques have been developed since the 1970s. The need to compare different territorial policies has justified their introduction into environmental research. These methods are based on the numerical manipulation of heterogeneous information, which varies in terms of reference scale and type of measure (continuous, ordinal, qualitative, binary, etc.). During recent years, diverse investigations have focused on general conditions on Salina, the “green island” of the Aeolian archipelago. Such studies, within an interdisciplinary project, aimed to explore the possibility of implementing conservation strategies that are compatible with human needs, landscape preservation, and sustainable economic development. Three different evaluation techniques are applied, namely multicriteria weighted concordance and discordance analysis and a qualitative procedure. They are used to compare four alternative plans for the socioeconomic development of Salina Island. These plans lie between extreme alternatives: total protection of natural resources and maximizing economic development based on tourism. The plans are compared to each other on the basis of 14 criteria that reflect the socioenvironmental perception of Salina's inhabitants. The approach used in this research seems particularly fruitful because of its flexibility: it offers decision makers the chance to manage heterogeneous data and information that is not easily quantifiable. Such “soft” information helps to evaluate environmental conditions more precisely, and to make a less damaging choice among alternative development plans.     

论灾害管理与经济发展的辩证关系

本文以ＡＢＣ分类法说明了减轻地震灾害的重要意义，指出了地震灾害绝对损失数额一般会随社会经济发展而逐渐增大这一客观事实。文中提出了表达地震灾害危险性、防抗灾工程投资和社会经济发展关系的一般数学模型，对灾害管理与经济发展的辩证关系进行了讨论。