基于熵权-HDT的航空器维修人误概率确定

人误是造成民用航空维修差错的主要因素。为确定不同情境下人误发生概率,结合某维修基地具体情况,采用熵权法确定主要的影响因子,并基于全决策树法分析主要影响因子对航空器维修人误概率的影响程度。计算结果显示,该维修基地人因可靠性的主要影响因子包括航空器维修人员的安全态度、技能、沟通、工作环境、压力以及工段长领导能力。根据各主要影响因子的不同品质描述等级组合,确定该情境下航空器维修人员的人误概率。鉴于该维修基地人因可靠性影响最明显的因子是"沟通",提出信息及时交流、明确沟通重要性等解决措施。     

城市安全生产影响因素及其预测分析——以上海为例

为研究我国城市安全生产的影响因素及预测城市安全生产的发展趋势,以上海市为例,对2004—2010年期间与安全生产相关的数据进行灰色关联度分析,提取影响安全生产状况的主要经济社会因素,并与工矿商贸死亡人数之间建立回归模型。研究结果表明,工矿商贸死亡人数与第二产业比重、GDP增长率、教育支出占GDP比重以及私营及个体工商户比例均呈现负相关。基于2007—2011年各月份上海市的安全生产死亡人数,运用Winters乘法模型,预测上海市安全生产发展趋势。     

Estimating resource utilization demands in implementing statewide screening,brief intervention,and referral to treatment for alcohol-impaired drivers

Objectives: The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is used to assess the level of alcohol use/misuse and to inform the intensity of intervention delivered within screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT) programs. Policy initiatives are recommending delivery of SBIRT within health care settings to reduce alcohol misuse and prevent alcohol-impaired driving. Recent reports are considering extending delivery of SBIRT to criminal justice settings. One consideration in implementing SBIRT delivery is the question of resource utilization; the amount of effort required in delivering the 4 different intensities of intervention in SBIRT: Alcohol education, simple advice, brief counseling and continued monitoring, and brief counseling and referral to specialist (from least to most intense in terms of delivery time, the skill level of the provider, and personnel resources).

Methods: In order to inform expectations about intervention intensity, this article describes the AUDIT scores from 982 adults recently arrested for alcohol-impaired driving. The distribution of scores is extrapolated to state rates for individuals arrested for alcohol-impaired driving by intervention level.

Results: Though alcohol education was the most common intervention category, about one quarter of the sample scored in a range corresponding with the more intensive interventions using the brief counseling, continued monitoring for ongoing alcohol use, and/or referral to specialist for diagnostic evaluation and treatment.

Conclusions: This article provides local distribution of AUDIT scores and state estimates for the number of individuals scoring in each level of risk (AUDIT risk zone) and corresponding intervention type. Routine criminal justice practice is well positioned to deliver alcohol screening, education, simple advice, and continued alcohol monitoring, making delivery of SBIRT feasible for the majority of alcohol-impaired drivers. Challenges to implementing the full range of SBIRT services include resource demands of brief counseling, identifying the appropriate providers within a criminal justice context, and availability of community providers for referral to diagnostic and specialty care. Solutions may vary by state due to differences in population density and incidence rates of alcohol-impaired driving.     

畜禽环境中抗生素的去除及其风险评估

抗生素作为饲料添加剂广泛应用于畜禽养殖业,造成养殖环境抗生素大量蓄积,尤其是在畜禽粪便中,长期的积累不仅污染养殖场内土壤环境,残留的抗生素还会随畜禽粪便进入周边水体及农田环境,威胁农作物及人体健康。目前,国内相关研究主要集中在抗生素的降解工艺及降解规律方面,而对其去除效率的影响因素及风险评价研究相对较少。笔者综述了国内外抗生素的降解转化及去除方式等的研究进展,并概述了抗生素在畜禽环境中的生态风险评估的研究现状,为抗生素的高效去除、风险预估及畜禽粪便资源化安全利用提供理论基础和技术支撑。     

供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局研究

为了提高管网地震监测点布局的准确性和合理性，基于管网微观水力计算模型和动态分级法，提出供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局模型。首先，利用管网微观水力计算模型计算管段流量的影响系数，构建管段的影响系数矩阵，并利用信息熵确定管段权重；其次，标准化处理影响系数矩阵，通过聚类迭代提出供水管网地震流量监测点优化布局的动态分级方法，对供水管网震后流量监测点进行优化布置分级评定；最后，根据工程实例进行方法实践，结果表明:供水管网中的管线分类较为科学合理，地震监测点在供水管网上分布也比较均匀，而且该模型在一定程度上消除了人为因素的影响，保障了震时管网的监控效果和日常建设的合理性。     

通风机站风流间相互影响阻力特性研究*

为研究双风机并联机站进口、出口风流相互影响的机站局部阻力特性，构建机站通风局部阻力计算的数学模型，同时运用相似原理建立双风机并联通风机站实验模型，并佐以数值模拟对比验证，分析计算不同风机间距的无量纲数A、不同扩散器结构参数条件下的综合影响系数Kc。结果表明:A与Kc具有二次函数关系，且存在较优的A，使得Kc值最小；Kc值随着L/Df增加而线性减小。研究结果有利于Kc的选取，为高效率通风机站结构设计提供技术及数据支撑。     

挥发性油藏回注气井控因素分析及措施

文章明确了挥发性油藏天然气回注井控的安全环保关键因素;量化了低渗挥发性油藏天然气回注注入能力,确定注入端各节点安全生产压力分布,攻关相关配套工艺设备,实现安全有效注入;开展室内实验和PVT相态拟合,分析注天然气后天然气和原油性质变化规律,创新非混相驱组分数值模拟参数优化方法,开展带人工压裂裂缝的组分数值模拟,精准确定压力场分布,降低计量及监测不准带来的安全隐患;明确注气井气窜影响因素,优化注采参数,抑制油井气窜,降低生产风险,实现井控安全情况下的天然气驱环保高效开发。     

基于SVM的矿井通风阻力系数影响因素分析与预测

矿井通风阻力系数是通风安全最重要的基础参数之一，为了实现矿井通风阻力系数简单准确地预测，提出了利用支持向量机（SVM）来预测矿井通风阻力系数的方法。通过分析影响因子与矿井通风阻力系数的相关性关系，并利用MATLAB逐步建立单影响因素与矿井通风阻力系数、多影响因素与矿井通风阻力系数之间的SVM预测模型，对比分析各预测模型的相对误差，确定最佳矿井通风阻力系数预测模型，即当输入模型影响因素为巷道断面积、周长和支护方式时，预测相对误差小于10%的样本数占测试样本的76%，相对误差小于20%的样本数占测试样本的90%。结果表明:该预测方法在矿井通风阻力系数预测中是可行的，并具较高的准确性。     

Factors associated with driving under the influence of alcohol

Objective: This study examined the risk factors of driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI) among drivers of specific vehicle categories (DSC). On the basis of this research, the variables related to DUI and involvement in traffic crashes were defined. The analysis was conducted for car drivers, bicyclists, motorcyclists, bus drivers, and truck drivers.

Method: The research sample included drivers involved in traffic crashes on the territory of Serbia in 2016 (60,666). Two types of analyses were conducted in this study. Logistic regression established the correlation between DUI and DSC and the The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Multi-criteria decision making) method was applied to consider the scoring and explore the potential for the prevalence of DUI on the basis of 2 data sets (DUI and non DUI).

Results: The study results showed that driver error and male drivers were the 2 most significant risk factors for DUI, with the highest scores and potential for prevalence. The nonuse of restraint systems, driver experience, and driver age are the factors with a significant prediction of involvement in an accident and an insignificant prediction of DUI.

Conclusions: Following the development of the logistic prediction models for DUI drivers, testing of the model was conducted for 3 control driver groups: Car, motorcycle, and bicycle. The prediction model with a probability greater than 50% showed that 77% of car drivers were under the influence of alcohol. Similarly, the prediction percentage for motorcyclists and bicyclists amounted to 71 and 67%, respectively. The recommendation of the study is that drivers whose DUI probability is above 50% should be potentially suspected of DUI. The results of this study can help to understand the problem of DUI among specific driver categories and detect DUI drivers, with the aim of creating successful traffic safety policy.     

餐厨垃圾高温厌氧消化产沼气的试验研究

探究了温度、含固率、pH及接种率对餐厨垃圾厌氧消化产沼量的影响,并设计L9(34)正交试验进行厌氧发酵工艺优化研究。结果表明,在温度为55℃、含固率为8%(质量分数)、pH为7.00、接种率为90%(质量分数)时,厌氧发酵累积产沼量为809.0mL/g(以挥发性固体计);各影响因素对产沼量的影响大小为温度pH接种率含固率。