SVM application in hazard assessment: Self-heating for sulfurized rust

In order to assess the oxidation self-heating hazard of sulfurized rust, for particular ambient conditions in crude oil tanks, the support vector machine (SVM) technique is applied to predict the maximum temperature (T_max) of oxidation self-heating process. Five governing parameters are selected, i.e. the water content, mass of sulfurized rust, operating temperature, air flow rate and oxygen concentration in the respiratory/safety valve. The efficiency and validity of the SVM predictions are investigated in the case of two sets of data: more than 85 experiments performed in academic lab (China) and almost 17 additional results collected from existing literature. Two main steps are also discussed: the training process (on selected subsets of data) and prediction process (for the remaining subsets of data). It can be concluded that for both datasets the maximum temperature (T_max) values calculated by SVM technique were in good accordance with the experimental results, with relative errors smaller than 15% except for a few cases.The SVM technique seems therefore to be relevant and very helpful for complex implicit processes such as chemical reactions, as it is the case of the oxidation of sulfurized rust in oil tanks. Furthermore, such predictive methods can be continuously be improved through additional experiments feedback (larger databases) and can then be of crucial help for monitoring and early warning of hazardous reactions.     

基于蒙特卡罗方法的铅酸蓄电池厂土壤健康风险评价

以土壤中的风险指标(Pb,Cd,As)为研究对象,将蒙特卡罗模拟方法应用到某铅酸蓄电池厂土壤重金属的健康风险评价中,解决了土壤重金属影响人体健康风险的不确定性问题。结果表明,土壤中Pb对成人不存在非致癌风险,对儿童存在非致癌风险;土壤中Cd,As对成人、儿童都不存在致癌风险;影响Pb,Cd和As进入人体单位体重的致癌、非致癌风险水平大小的主要因素为土壤重金属浓度。研究结果在一定程度上可为铅酸蓄电池厂土壤不确定性健康风险评价提供参考依据。     

A Measure of Uncertainty: The Nature of Vulnerability and Its Relationship to Malnutrition

Terms such as 'vulnerability' and 'insecurity' are used widely in the general nutrition literature as well as in work on humanitarian response. Yet these words are used rather loosely. This paper argues that more clarity in their usage would benefit those seeking a bridge between development and humanitarian problems. Since vulnerability is not fully coincident with malnutrition, poverty or other conventional indices of human deprivation, public action must be based on a better understanding of the nature of crises and human uncertainty beyond physiological and nutritional outcomes. More attention is needed to be paid to the context-specific nature of risks, the capacity of households to manage such risks and the potential for public action to bolster indigenous capacity through targeted development investments, not just relief.     

高风险社会及其对策研究

经济和技术不断发展的过程中伴随的副作用使人类社会逐渐处于“风险社会”乃至“高风险社会”之中。当前我国正处于结构调整和社会转型中,存在着自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生事件和社会安全事件等各种各样的风险。在对现代社会风险的特点进行归纳后,对其量化方法也进行了初步探讨,并结合我国实际情况从影响风险大小的各因素入手,拟定了若干风险管理对策,对如何面对“风险社会”和提高风险承受能力可起到积极的参考作用。     

新冠肺炎疫情下的环境应急管理研究

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情(以下简称"新冠肺炎疫情")是一次具有较大环境风险的复合性危机事件,评估总结应对疫情的环境应急管理政策实践进展,识别我国在面对重大疫情时环境应急管理存在的短板具有重要意义。本文通过对新冠肺炎疫情产生的环境影响以及应急措施的进展分析,总结了重大疫情下环境应急管理的经验与不足,建议要健全针对重大疫情的环境应急响应机制,加强环境应急基础能力建设,加快完善支撑保障体系。     

Labor market estimates of the senior discount for the value of statistical life

This article develops the first measures of age–industry job risks to examine the age variations in the value of statistical life. Because of the greater risk vulnerability of older workers, they face flatter wage-risk gradients than younger workers, which we show to be the case empirically. Accounting for this heterogeneity in hedonic market equilibria leads to estimates of the value of statistical life–age relationship that follows an inverted U shape. The estimates of the value of statistical life range from $6.4 million for younger workers to a peak of $9.0 million for those aged 35–44, and then a decline to $3.8 million for those aged 55–62. The decline of the estimated value of statistical life with age is consistent with there being some senior discount in the Clear Skies Initiative analysis.     

Arsenic, Cadmium, Lead, and Mercury in surface soils, Pueblo, Colorado: implications for population health risk

Decades of intensive industrial and agricultural practices as well as rapid urbanization have left communities like Pueblo, Colorado facing potential health threats from pollution of its soils, air, water and food supply. To address such concerns about environmental contamination, we conducted an urban geochemical study of the city of Pueblo to offer insights into the potential chemical hazards in soil and inform priorities for future health studies and population interventions aimed at reducing exposures to inorganic substances. The current study characterizes the environmental landscape of Pueblo in terms of heavy metals, and relates this to population distributions. Soil was sampled within the city along transects and analyzed for arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg) and lead (Pb). We also profiled Pueblo’s communities in terms of their socioeconomic status and demographics. ArcGIS 9.0 was used to perform exploratory spatial data analysis and generate community profiles and prediction maps. The topsoil in Pueblo contains more As, Cd, Hg and Pb than national soil averages, although average Hg content in Pueblo was within reported baseline ranges. The highest levels of As concentrations ranged between 56.6 and 66.5 ppm. Lead concentrations exceeded 300 ppm in several of Pueblo’s residential communities. Elevated levels of lead are concentrated in low-income Hispanic and African-American communities. Areas of excessively high Cd concentration exist around Pueblo, including low income and minority communities, raising additional health and environmental justice concerns. Although the distribution patterns vary by element and may reflect both industrial and non-industrial sources, the study confirms that there is environmental contamination around Pueblo and underscores the need for a comprehensive public health approach to address environmental threats in urban communities.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban soils of Beijing: status, sources, distribution and potential risk

We studied the source, concentration, spatial distribution and health risk of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban soils of Beijing. The total mass concentration of 16 PAHs ranged from 93 to 13 141 μg kg⁻¹ with a mean of 1228 μg kg⁻¹. The contour map of soil PAH concentrations showed that the industrial zone, the historical Hutong district and the university district of Beijing have significantly higher concentrations than those in remainder of the city. The results of sources identification suggested that the primary sources of PAHs were vehicle exhaust and coal combustion and the secondary source was the atmospheric deposition of long-range transported PAHs. The incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCRs) of exposing to PAHs in the urban soils of Beijing for adult were 1.77 × 10⁻⁶ and 2.48 × 10⁻⁵, respectively under normal and extreme conditions. For child, they were 8.87 × 10⁻⁷ and 6.72 × 10⁻⁶, respectively under normal and extreme conditions.     

Prioritizing ecological and human welfare risks from environmental stresses

The ecological systems of Earth are subjected to a wide array of environmental stresses resulting from human activities. The development of appropriate environmental protection and management policies and the appropriate allocation of resources across environmental stresses require a systematic evaluation of relative risks. The data and methodologies for comprehensive ecological risk assessment do not exist, yet we do have considerable understanding of econological stress-response relationships. A methodology is presented to utilize present knowledge for assignment of relative risks to ecological systems and human welfare from anthropogenic stresses. The resultant priorities, developed for the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) relative risk reduction project, highlight global climate change, habitat alteration, stratospheric ozone depletion, and species depletion as the highest environmental risks, significantly diverging from the present emphasis by EPA and the public on toxic chemical issues. Enhanced attention to ecological issues by EPA and development of ecological risk assessment methodologies that value ecological and economic issues equitably are key recommendations.