新时期火灾隐患整治对策与机制

通过详细分析福建省长乐市2009提＂1.31＂拉丁酒吧火灾的成因及总结危害后果教训,引发了我们对新时期消防火灾隐患整治对策与机制的思考。火灾事故发生有其深刻的社会经济背景,依据新旧《消防法》对＂三合一＂等特定场所隐患整治的延续规定,本文从依法进行火灾隐患整治、做好消防宣传教育工作、大力贯彻单位全面负责的消防工作原则、加强消防监督执法人员的业务素质、多部门联合处置违反消防安全行为、充分发挥保险经济杠杆作用、设立举报奖励制度等内容,对改进当前消防工作提出七个方面的建议,并总结避免隐患整治的三个误区。依法治火,以人为本,形成长效管理机制,科学治火,从根本上减少火灾隐患,特别是杜绝群死群伤重特大恶性火灾事故发生。     

SVM application in hazard assessment: Self-heating for sulfurized rust

In order to assess the oxidation self-heating hazard of sulfurized rust, for particular ambient conditions in crude oil tanks, the support vector machine (SVM) technique is applied to predict the maximum temperature (T_max) of oxidation self-heating process. Five governing parameters are selected, i.e. the water content, mass of sulfurized rust, operating temperature, air flow rate and oxygen concentration in the respiratory/safety valve. The efficiency and validity of the SVM predictions are investigated in the case of two sets of data: more than 85 experiments performed in academic lab (China) and almost 17 additional results collected from existing literature. Two main steps are also discussed: the training process (on selected subsets of data) and prediction process (for the remaining subsets of data). It can be concluded that for both datasets the maximum temperature (T_max) values calculated by SVM technique were in good accordance with the experimental results, with relative errors smaller than 15% except for a few cases.The SVM technique seems therefore to be relevant and very helpful for complex implicit processes such as chemical reactions, as it is the case of the oxidation of sulfurized rust in oil tanks. Furthermore, such predictive methods can be continuously be improved through additional experiments feedback (larger databases) and can then be of crucial help for monitoring and early warning of hazardous reactions.     

基于蒙特卡罗方法的铅酸蓄电池厂土壤健康风险评价

以土壤中的风险指标(Pb,Cd,As)为研究对象,将蒙特卡罗模拟方法应用到某铅酸蓄电池厂土壤重金属的健康风险评价中,解决了土壤重金属影响人体健康风险的不确定性问题。结果表明,土壤中Pb对成人不存在非致癌风险,对儿童存在非致癌风险;土壤中Cd,As对成人、儿童都不存在致癌风险;影响Pb,Cd和As进入人体单位体重的致癌、非致癌风险水平大小的主要因素为土壤重金属浓度。研究结果在一定程度上可为铅酸蓄电池厂土壤不确定性健康风险评价提供参考依据。     

镉胁迫对不同杂交水稻品种Cd、Zn吸收与积累的影响

土壤-作物-食品是人类摄取Cd的重要途径.水稻是Cd积累能力最强的粮食作物,且水稻对Cd的吸收常伴随Zn缺乏,这对人类健康具有潜在的暴露风险.因此,本文选择2种杂交水稻(普通杂交稻材料"J196"和超级稻品种"中浙优1号")为供试水稻,以红壤性水稻土为供试土壤,采用添加Cd(2.5 mg·kg^-1)和不添加Cd(0 mg·kg^-1)处理进行盆栽试验,研究了水稻在成熟期对土壤中Cd的吸收分配及籽粒中Cd、Zn的积累特点.结果表明,添加Cd处理的水稻籽粒Cd积累量为未加Cd处理的6~10倍.在供试土壤Cd污染条件下,超级稻表现出对Cd具有较强的吸收能力,其籽粒中的Cd积累量也可高达1.83 mg·kg^-1,就地消费人群的籽粒Cd暴露风险水平为人体安全临界摄入剂量水平的数倍,Zn存在相对缺乏的食物安全风险.中浙优1号具有较强的籽粒Cd分配能力和较弱的籽粒Zn转运能力,而加Cd处理下,其对Cd、Zn的根部、茎叶滞留能力更强,这也正是高籽粒含量品种籽粒Cd积累强而Cd/Zn比高的原因.因此,在高产水稻育种中必须考虑水稻对Cd、Zn吸收的品种差异与籽粒Cd暴露、Zn缺乏的风险.为降低镉暴露风险,推广高产杂交水稻时应考虑Cd的吸收特性,同时在土壤-品种间进行合理布局,并进行膳食结构优化以增加人体对Zn的摄入.     

生物节律理论在铁路行、调车安全中的应用探讨

首先对生物节律理论的涵义以及相关专业论文著作中对临界日的主要观点进行了概述。通过对生物节律理论的研究,提出了扩大范围的"72小时临界期"作为统计样本数据的依据。经过对37个样本的统计分析得出,对于铁路行、调车工种情绪高潮期是危险多发阶段,并归纳出"低低高、高高高、临低高、低高高"四类针对行、调车工种的"特别危险"级别的生物节律组合,然后使用四起一般事故作为以上分析结果的佐证。给出了生物节律在行、调车安全生产中应用的四项建议。最后,得到生物节律技术是对传统安全管理方法补充的结论。     

An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models

Motorcyclists are the most crash-prone road-user group in many Asian countries including Singapore; however, factors influencing motorcycle crashes are still not well understood. This study examines the effects of various roadway characteristics, traffic control measures and environmental factors on motorcycle crashes at different location types including expressways and intersections. Using techniques of categorical data analysis, this study has developed a set of log-linear models to investigate multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Singapore. Motorcycle crash risks in different circumstances have been calculated after controlling for the exposure estimated by the induced exposure technique. Results show that night-time influence increases crash risks of motorcycles particularly during merging and diverging manoeuvres on expressways, and turning manoeuvres at intersections. Riders appear to exercise more care while riding on wet road surfaces particularly during night. Many hazardous interactions at intersections tend to be related to the failure of drivers to notice a motorcycle as well as to judge correctly the speed/distance of an oncoming motorcycle. Road side conflicts due to stopping/waiting vehicles and interactions with opposing traffic on undivided roads have been found to be as detrimental factors on motorcycle safety along arterial, main and local roads away from intersections. Based on the findings of this study, several targeted countermeasures in the form of legislations, rider training, and safety awareness programmes have been recommended.     

应用物种敏感性分布评价敌敌畏对淡水生物的生态风险

敌敌畏是一类重要的有机磷杀虫剂,但其对水生生态的影响至今研究较少。为了评价其生态风险,构建了淡水水生生物对敌敌畏的物种敏感性分布(species sensitivity distribution,SSD)模型,在此基础上,讨论了影响SSD模型的主要因素;并分析了该模型的不确定性;推导了敌敌畏对不同类别生物的5%危害浓度HC5(hazardous concentration for 5%the species)阈值;整理收集了我国重要流域水体中敌敌畏的环境浓度;结合SSD模型计算了对淡水生物的潜在影响比例(potentially affected fraction,PAF)。结果表明:1)不同模型的选择会影响HC5的结果,且Burr III模型拟合结果较好,推导的HC5值为0.37μg·L-1;2)无脊椎动物在敌敌畏低浓度范围内的敏感性明显高于脊椎动物。甲壳类动物与昆虫和蜘蛛类相似,敏感度较高,鱼类则较低;3)应用Burr III模型构建SSD时,参数k值对HC5最为敏感,蒙特卡罗随机模拟得到HC5变化范围为0.05~40.57μg·L-1,均值为5.07μg·L-1;4)敌敌畏对我国淡水生态影响较小,PAF均低于1%,其中黄河和太湖流域敌敌畏的生态风险高于其他河流湖泊,珠江口和南海北部较低。上述研究结果为评价敌敌畏对全国不同水体水生生物的潜在生态风险提供了科学依据。     

应用物种敏感性分布评估重金属对海洋生物的生态风险

应用生态风险评价中的物种敏感性分布(species sensitivity distributions,SSD)方法构建了8种常见重金属元素(As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Mn、Pb、Zn)对海洋生物的SSD曲线。在此基础上计算了8种重金属对海洋生物的5%危害浓度(HC5)及其不同暴露浓度对海洋生物的潜在影响比例(PAF),比较了海洋脊椎动物和无脊椎动物对8种重金属的敏感性以及不同重金属的急性生态风险。结果表明,重金属对甲壳类的生态风险均比鱼类大。8种重金属元素对所研究的海洋生物全部物种的HC5值的排序为Pb>Mn>Zn>Cr>Cu>Hg>Cd>As。暴露浓度小于10μg·L-1时,Cr和Hg的生态风险差异不大。在10μg·L-1的暴露浓度下,As、Cd、Cu和Hg均使全部物种中超过10%的生物受到影响。随着浓度升高,不同重金属的生态风险有不同幅度的增大,当浓度达到1000μg·L-1时,分别有82.49%、87.31%和85.90%的物种受到As、Cu和Hg的损害。不同生物的敏感性顺序会随重金属的浓度范围发生变化。     

沙颍河沈丘段底泥、土壤中砷及重金属污染与潜在生态风险评价

为查明沙颍河沈丘段底泥、土壤中砷(As)和重金属污染状况及其潜在生态风险,对底泥和土壤样品中的砷(As)、铬(Cr)、汞(Hg)、镉(Cd)和铅(Pb)的含量水平进行测定,并进行潜在生态风险指数计算。结果表明,沙颍河沈丘段底泥中As含量为9.206～11.641mg·kg-1,距河5km的白果村农田土壤中As含量为8.52～80.31mg·kg-1,超标率达到57.8%,Cr、Hg、Cd和Pb的超标率分别达到32.8%、59.4%、67.2%和39.1%。沙颍河沈丘段底泥和附近村庄农田土壤中As和4种重金属的总潜在生态风险为中等生态风险,主要来源于Hg和As。     

抗生素抗性基因在环境中的来源、传播扩散及生态风险

近年来,由于抗生素的滥用首先诱导动物体内产生抗生素抗性基因(antib iotic resistance genes,ARGs),从而加速了抗性基因在环境中细菌间的传播扩散.目前,抗生素抗性基因作为一类新型环境污染物,在不同环境介质中的传播、扩散可能比抗生素本身的环境危害更大.本文针对抗生素抗性基因在地表水、地下水、医疗废水、城市污水处理厂、养殖场、土壤、沉积物以及大气环境中的来源、分布、传播情况以及国内外最新研究动态进行综述.分析了抗生素抗性基因在环境中的潜在传播途径及其可能影响因素,并指出光照,厌氧,高温处理可以有效遏制抗生素抗性基因在环境中的传播和扩散.揭示了抗生素抗性基因可能造成的生态风险,针对我国对该类污染物的研究现状,提出了今后的研究重点.