Cost-Effective Suppression and Eradication of Invasive Predators

Abstract: Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget‐limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator–prey model based on a Lotka‐Volterra system to investigate the cost‐effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed‐number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed‐rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper‐trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower‐trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed‐number, and lower‐trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper‐trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper‐trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the “best” strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely.     

考虑随机误差的软土基坑沉降趋势分析及预测*

为准确分析基坑沉降变性规律，基于现场监测数据，通过卡尔曼滤波对趋势项及误差项进行分解，采用M-K检验对发展趋势进行评价，利用优化广义回归神经网络和差分整合移动平均自回归模型，构建基坑沉降分项预测模型，并将预测结果与发展趋势评价结果对比分析，以实现基坑沉降变形规律综合研究。结果表明:卡尔曼滤波能有效分解基坑沉降数据趋势项与误差项，相较于传统小波分解效果更佳；基坑沉降呈持续增加趋势，但趋势性逐渐减弱；预测结果相对误差均值均不大于2%，预测模型精度较高；沉降变形会进一步增加，但增加速率明显降低，与发展趋势分析结果一致，两者相互佐证分析结果准确性。研究结果为基坑沉降变形规律分析提供新思路。     

PM_(2.5)和PM_(2.5~10)资料同化及在南京青奥会期间的应用试验

建立了面向PM_(2.5)和PM10观测资料的三维变分同化系统,并在南京地区青奥会期间进行了同化和预报试验.同化系统的控制变量为PM_(2.5)和PM_(2.5~10)(PM10中扣除PM_(2.5)后剩余部分),利用南京地区2014年8月的WRF-Chem模拟结果,估计了PM_(2.5)和PM_(2.5~10)的背景误差协方差,发现在水平和垂直方向上PM_(2.5)的相关系数随距离的衰减均小于PM_(2.5~10),这可能与PM_(2.5)粒径小、生命史长,在大气中传播地更远有关.利用南京及周边区域的134个监测站PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)逐时观测资料,对青奥会期间(2014年8月16~28日)进行滚动同化和预报试验,并利用模式最内层观测资料进行检验分析,结果表明同化对初始场有显著改进,PM_(2.5)和PM10的相关系数均提高53%以上,均方根误差降低55%以上,平均偏差则降低了90%左右;同化试验对其后的预报场也有明显改进,正效应可以持续到20h以后,模式对PM10的预报效果好于PM_(2.5).     

地勘行业人因失误的影响因素及管理对策

地勘行业是矿产资源开发的龙头,对国民经济的发展具有重要的作用。通过对地勘行业人因失误的类型和影响因素进行分析,从而提出了相应的管理对策,对加强地勘行业的安全管理,促进地勘经济的长足发展具有重要的意义。     

分光光度法测定测田废水中的COD_(Cr)

为了快速监测油田废水中的化学需氧量ＣＯＤＣｒ,因此采用ＴＬ－１（Ａ）型污水ＣＯＤＣｒ速测仪进行加热催化消解,然后再用分光光度比色法测定ＣＯＤＣｒ,实验中进行了方法的准确度、精确度及Ｃｌ－影响实验,并与标准的重铬酸钾法进行了对比实验,结果说明分光光度法简单快速、重现性较好、准确度较高,对同一产品的测定结果与重铬酸钾法非常一致。因此,本方法可用于油田废水中的ＣＯＤＣｒ监测。     

低浓度SO2和NOx自动监测系统性能评价方法

通过对7种废气自动监测系统的比较研究和现场测试,提出了非分散红外法、紫外差分法、紫外荧光法、化学发光法等多种SO2和NO x自动监测技术在低浓度范围实现准确定量监测的性能评价方法,定义了CEMS的系统检出限及其主要影响因素。建议采用系统检出限、线性误差等关键参数作为低浓度CEMS的性能评价方法,提出将全系统多点标准气体校准或加标回收率作为验收和质控监督的基本方法。     

Kinetic and isotherm error optimization studies for adsorption of atrazine and imidacloprid on bark of Eucalyptus tereticornis L.

The aim of this study was to establish the bark of Eucalyptus tereticornis L. (EB) as a low cost bio-adsorbent for the removal of imidacloprid and atrazine from aqueous medium. The pseudo-first-order (PFO), pseudo-second-order (PSO), Elovich and intra-particle diffusion (IPD) models were used to describe the kinetic data and rate constants were evaluated. Adsorption data was analysed using ten 2-, 3- and 4-parameter models viz. Freundlich, Jovanovic, Langmuir, Temkin, Koble–Corrigan, Redlich–Peterson, Sips, Toth, Radke–Prausnitz, and Fritz-Schluender isotherms. Six error functions were used to compute the best fit single component isotherm parameters by nonlinear regression analysis. The results showed that the sorption of atrazine was better explained by PSO model, whereas the sorption of imidacloprid followed the PFO kinetic model. Isotherm model optimization analysis suggested that the Freundlich along with Koble–Corrigan, Toth and Fritz-Schluender were the best models to predict atrazine and imidacloprid adsorption onto EB. Error analysis suggested that minimization of chi-square (χ²) error function provided the best determination of optimum parameter sets for all the isotherms.     

主动防护系统拦截误差分析及模型构建

目的 建立主动防护系统拦截误差数学模型.方法 详细分析主动防护系统的拦截过程,依据主动防护系统的作用原理对拦截过程进行数学模型构建.分析主动防护系统拦截过程中可能出现的误差,研究来袭目标的位置误差、速度误差、高低角误差、方向角误差,拦截弹的速度误差、高低角误差、方位角误差对来袭目标位置和拦截弹位置的影响,并进行模型构建.结果 确定了来袭目标的位置误差、速度误差、高低角误差、方向角误差引起的来袭目标被拦截位置偏差;确定了拦截弹药的速度误差、高低角误差、方位角误差引起的拦截弹药战斗部爆炸位置偏差.结论 基于拦截弹药和来袭目标的位置偏差模型,构建了主动防护系统拦截误差模型,为主动防护系统的研发和科研试验的开展提供了必要的技术支持和理论参考.     

顾及模型误差的基坑位移监测数据处理方法

由于基坑地质及观测环境的多样性和复杂性,基坑位移监测数据处理的理论模型与实际模型之间存在着模型误差。若模型误差显著,则所得位移拟合模型的精度较差,将影响后继变形分析的准确性。针对这一问题进行了深入研究,提出了顾及模型误差的最小二乘配置法,并指出在考虑观测值中可能存在粗差的情况下应进一步采用稳健估计法改善基坑监测面的拟合精度。推导了顾及基坑位移模型误差的最小二乘配置法的计算公式,说明了计算步骤。通过对多个实例的计算分析可知,该方法对基坑监测面拟合模型的精度增益能达到35%~48%,是一种比较实用的基坑位移监测数据处理方法。     

基于协整与误差修正模型的PM_(2.5)影响因素分析

基于重庆市监测数据,运用协整与误差修正模型研究了输入变量平均温度、相对湿度、PM_(10)浓度、一氧化碳(CO)浓度、二氧化氮(NO2)浓度以及二氧化硫(SO_2)浓度对输出变量PM_(2.5)浓度的影响机理。结果表明:1)PM_(2.5)与空气中相对湿度、PM_(10)浓度和CO浓度呈正相关关系;2)当系统短期偏离长期均衡时,系统将以0.213的调节力度将非均衡状态拉回到均衡状态;3)建立的模型预测误差极小,并具有较强的泛化能力。