A Bayesian strategy for combining predictions from empirical and process-based models

We present a strategy for using an empirical forest growth model to reduce uncertainty in predictions made with a physiological process-based forest ecosystem model. The uncertainty reduction is carried out via Bayesian melding, in which information from prior knowledge and a deterministic computer model is conditioned on a likelihood function. We used predictions from an empirical forest growth model G-HAT in place of field observations of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in a deciduous temperate forest ecosystem. Using Bayesian melding, priors for the inputs of the process-based forest ecosystem PnET-II were propagated through the model, and likelihoods for the PnET-II output ANPP were calculated using the G-HAT predictions. Posterior distributions for ANPP and many PnET-II inputs obtained using the G-HAT predictions largely matched posteriors obtained using field data. Since empirical growth models are often more readily available than extensive field data sets, the method represents a potential gain in efficiency for reducing the uncertainty of process-based model predictions when reliable empirical models are available but high-quality data are not.     

SAGEBRUSH RANGELAND HYDROLOGY AND EVALUATION OF THE SPUR HYDROLOGY MODEL1

ABSTRACT: An excellent hydrologic record on sagebrush range-land has been developed at the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in southwestern Idaho. The objectives of this paper were two-fold: (1) to analyze and describe the hydrologic record (8–18 years) from four sagebrush watersheds (1–83 ha); and (2) to evaluate the hydrology component of SPUR, a comprehensive rangeland model. The watersheds represent a gradient in elevation (1180–1658 m) and precipitation (240–350 mm/yr). Runoff was a small fraction (> 2 percent) of the total water budget for all of the watersheds. It occurred very infrequently at the three lower elevation watersheds: Summit, Flats, and Nancy Gulch. At Lower Sheep, the highest elevation watershed, runoff occurred most years for a period of 1 to 17 weeks in the winter. Frozen soil combined with rainfall or snowmelt was associated with most of the runoff from Flats and Nancy Gulch. At Summit summertime thunderstorms produced all of the runoff. The average annual sediment yield from all of the watersheds was low (17–950 kg/ha). It was highest from Summit, which had well developed alluvial channels and very steep slopes. SPUR was able to simulate runoff with reasonable accuracy only at Summit, where frozen soils were not a factor. There was poor correlation between predicted and actual annual 8ediment loss. The model tended to overpredict evapotranspiration early in the growing season and underpredict it in the late summer.     

A COMPARISON OF STREAMFLOW GENERATION MODELS FOR RESERVOIR CAPACITY-YIELD ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: An analysis of four streamflow generation schemes for the use in the estimation of the required conservation storage for a single reservoir is presented. The comparison of the generating schemes should aid in the selection of an appropriate model type for the reservoir sizing problem. The streamflow generation models are compared using two criteria. The first comparison is between the statistics of the generated streamflow sequences and the corresponding statistics from the historical record. The second evaluation compares the median reservoir size determined by each model with the required storage based on the historical flow sequence. The results of a comparative analysis for monthly streamflow data for the Rzav River in Yugoslavia are presented and discussed. The results indicate that both evaluation criteria are required to discriminate between the various options.     

WATER YIELD AUGMENTATION THROUGH FOREST AND RANGE MANAGEMENT - ISSUES FOR THE FUTURE1

The demand for more water is increasing throughout the country. Research on upland watersheds clearly demonstrates that water yield can be increased using forest and range management practices. Based on the experience of the past several decades and a review of six papers in a recent AWRA series on water yield augmentation through vegetation management, the following issues and concerns are discussed: predicting increased yields from large basins; economic evaluation of additional flows; court acceptance and need for system models; the legal question of ownership and transferability of increased yields; and management emphasis on private and federal lands. The immediate potential for water yield augmentation is on carefully selected watersheds that have the bio-physical potential to produce high value water under environmentally acceptable multiple use management. We predict water yield management on a broader scale will result from increased pressures to solve the legal and economic issues involved.     

WATER QUALITY FROM TWO SMALL FORESTED WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS1

Two intermittent streams on oak-hickory watersheds in southern Illinois were gaged with a V-notched weir and sampled with an automatic water sampler. For three years data were collected on flow volume and water quality. Flow volumes show large variations between years and watersheds. Samples were analyzed for Na⁺, K⁺, Ca⁺⁺, Mg⁺⁺, P, and NO^-₃. Water quality was consistently high, although there were significant differences between watersheds. A baseline for water quality has been established for comparison after one of the watersheds is clearcut at a later date.     

水稻“早育间作”技术与结果分析

本文以提高光热资源利用率、人工改变秧田微气候条件，提早中稻播期为突破口，辅之以提早移栽期和间种优质懦稻等系列配套技术措施，促成了前季中稻的早熟、高产、早收，同时又为后季再生稻创造了必要的时间和温光条件，从而使水稻单产提高２０％以上。     

Review and appraisal of concept of sustainable food production systems

Environmental degradation, competition for resources, increasing food demands, and the integration of agriculture into the international economy threaten the sustainability of many food production systems. Despite these concerns, the concept of sustainable food production systems remains unclear, and recent attempts to appraise sustainability have been hampered by conceptual inconsistencies and the absence of workable definitions. Six perspectives are shown to underpin the concept. Environmental accounting identifies biophysical limits for agriculture. Sustained yield refers to output levels that can be maintained continuously. Carrying capacity defines maximum population levels that can be supported in perpetuity. Production unit viability refers to the capacity of primary producers to remain in agriculture. Product supply and security focuses on the adequacy of food supplies. Equity is concerned with the spatial and temporal distribution of products dervied from resource use. Many studies into sustainable agriculture cover more than one of these perspectives, indicating the concept is complex and embraces issues relating to the biophysical, social, and economic environments. Clarification of the concept would facilitate the development of frameworks and analytical systems for appraising the sustainability of food production systems. LRRC Contribution No. 90–46.     

Morphologie effects of channelization: the case of the Neebing-McIntyre floodway,Thunder Bay,Ontario, Canada

The Neebing-McIntyre floodway in Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada, has been constructed with a relatively straight and uniform trapezoidal channel, compared with the prechannelized sinuous reaches of the Neebing and the McIntyre rivers. The flow regime of the floodway also contrasts significantly with the prechannelized regime, because of the combination of discharges from these rivers into a new channel and the regulation of flows by a diversion structure. The maximum channel capacity of the floodway is about 284 m³ s^–1 (175-year regional flood), compared with about 40 m³ s^–1 and 60 m³ s^–1, respectively, for the Neebing and the McIntyre. According to regime theories, the construction of a straight and trapezoidal channel has upset the equilibrium of the stream system and therefore should lead to some accelerated erosion and sedimentation processes in the new channel immediately after construction. Erosion potential is particularly high during higher discharge events, when flow velocities are expected to be greater than the prechannelized velocities of the Neebing and the McIntyre. The overall sediment yield of the watershed is low (71t km^–2 yr^–1), compared with other documented watersheds of North America, but the rates of deposition in the floodway are relatively high, mainly due to the backwater effect of Lake Superior. Unless maintained by constant channel work, the floodway will tend to fill up with sediment, until a postconstructional equilibrium is reestablished.     

Paradise Threatened: Land Use and Erosion on St. John, US Virgin Islands

2 /yr, respectively. Geomorphic evidence indicates that plantation agriculture during the 18th and 19th centuries did not cause severe erosion. Since about 1950 there has been rapid growth in roads and development due to increasing tourism and second-home development. Our field investigations identified the approximately 50 km of unpaved roads as the primary source of anthropogenic sediment. Field measurements of the road network in two catchments led to the development of a vector-based GIS model to predict road surface erosion and sediment delivery. We estimate that road erosion has caused at least a fourfold increase in island-wide sediment yields and that current sedimentation rates are unprecedented. Paving the dirt roads and implementing standard sediment control practices can greatly reduce current sediment yields and possible adverse effects on the marine ecosystems surrounding St. John.