Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Assessing the Effectiveness of Winter Cover Crops for Controlling Agricultural Nutrient Losses

A nutrient loss reduction strategy is necessary to guide the efforts of improving water quality downstream of an agricultural watershed. In this study, the effectiveness of two winter cover crops, namely cereal rye and annual ryegrass, is explored as a loss reduction strategy in a watershed that ultimately drains into a water supply reservoir. Using a coupled optimization-watershed model, optimal placements of the cover crops were identified that would result in the tradeoffs between nitrate-N losses reduction and adoption levels. Analysis of the 10%, 25%, 50%, and 75% adoption levels extracted from the optimal tradeoffs showed that the cover crop placements would provide annual nitrate-N loss reductions of 3.0%–3.7%, 7.8%–8.8%, 15%–17.5%, and 20.9%–24.3%, respectively. In addition, for the same adoption levels (i.e., 10%–75%), sediment (1.8%–17.7%), and total phosphorus losses (0.8%–8.6%) could be achieved. Results also indicate that implementing each cover crop on all croplands of the watershed could cause annual water yield reduction of at least 4.8%, with greater than 28% in the months of October and November. This could potentially be detrimental to the storage volume of the downstream reservoir, especially in drought years, if cover crops are adopted in most of the reservoir's drainage area. Evaluating water yield impacts, particularly in periods of low flows, is thus critical if cover crops are to be considered as best management practices in water supply watersheds.     

Identification and characterization of extracted microplastics from agricultural soil near industrial area: FTIR and X-ray diffraction method

Microplastics have been found in large quantities in agricultural soil and now become a major global issue. Different types of microplastic have adverse effects on agricultural soil. The most widely used method for the extraction of microplastics in agricultural soil is the density floatation method by using saturated NaCl solution. This method includes the pre-digestion of soil samples with H₂O₂ to remove all the organic matter present in the soil. Different types of microplastic particles were extracted and identified by using ATR-FTIR viz polypropylene, polybutylene tetrapthalate, polyethylene, polystyrene, and polyethylene tetrapthalate. The crystalline nature of extracted microplastic was checked by employing XRD analytical technique. Floatation with higher density saturated sodium chloride (NaCl) solution recovered approximately 80% MPs from soil. Floatation methods were found to be effective for extracting microplastics from soils.     

试论天津市农业污染防治地方环境标准的制定

文章通过对当前天津市农业源污染现状的分析,阐明了天津市农业污染防治地方环境标准制定的意义与必要性。在研究了国家、环境保护部及地方关于农业源水环境污染防治标准制定现状的基础上,进一步结合天津市农业源污染的实际情况,有针对性地提出天津市农业污染防治地方环境标准研究与制定工作的具体建议,以及对标准实施方面的一些看法。     

农垦北安局农业生态经济系统能值分析及可持续发展对策

文章运用能值理论分析方法,对黑龙江省农垦北安局2001年-2008年农业生态经济系统发展现状进行研究分析。研究结果表明,系统能值投入和产出呈逐年增长的趋势,能值自给率、人口承载力和净能值产出率呈下降趋势,能值投资率、人均能值使用量和能值密度呈增加态势,环境压力逐年增加。根据能值指标分析结果和经济发展现状,提出农业生态系统可持续发展对策。     

Dissolved organic sulfur in streams draining forested catchments in southern China

Dissolved organic sulfur (DOS) is an important fraction for sulfur mobilization in ecosystem. In this work stream waters were sampled in 25 forested sites in southern China to study the dissolved sulfur fractions. Dissolved sulfur was fractionated into dissolved organic sulfur (DOS) and inorganic sulfate (SO₄^2-) for 95 stream water samples. The results showed that the concentration of DOS ranged from 0 to 13.1 mg/L (average 1.3 mg/L) in all the streams. High concentrations of DOS in stream waters were found in the sites with high concentrations of sulfate. DOS constituted less than 60.1% of dissolved sulfur (average 17.9%). Statistical analysis showed that DOS concentration was correlated with SO₄^2- in streams waters and total sulfur in surface layer soils. The results also showed that DOS concentration in stream waters had a seasonal variation, but no trends were found with it. The implication was that the long term sulfur deposition had led the increase of the concentration and fraction of DOS in stream waters in acid rain prevailing regions     

中国农业面源污染物排放量计算及中长期预测

利用第一次全国污染源普查数据,计算了我国内地31个省市自治区农业面源污染排放量,在此基础上,预测了2010—2030年农业面源污染情况.结果表明,2007年,我国农业面源污染的污染物总排放量为1057×104t,其中,COD排放量为825.9×104t,总氮为187.2×104t,总磷为21.6×104t,氨氮为22.4×104t.如果不加大对面源污染的治理力度,2020年前我国农业面源污染有加剧的趋势.在高排放情景下,2030年农业面源污染中COD排放量可能上升到1466.5×104t,面源污染需引起高度重视.目前,东部沿海地区是我国农业面源污染的主要排放区,但未来我国农业面源污染排放的空间分布可能趋于均衡.     

黄河三角洲垦利县可持续土地利用评价及对策研究

选取34个自然、环境和社会经济指标,采用相关分析和模糊数学原理对研究区的可持续土地利用进行了评价.结果表明,研究区可持续土地利用性在1986-2003年期间逐渐提高.通过计算障碍度详细分析了研究区可持续土地利用的障碍因素.人均农业总产值、粮食单产、芦苇地占地率、农业用地率是可持续土地利用的主要障碍因素.芦苇地占地率在1996年以后始终是第一障碍因素.人均农业总产值的限制主要出现在1998年之前,之后对可持续土地利用未构成障碍.粮食单产和农业用地率的影响主要出现在1996年以后.林草覆盖率、公顷耕地农机总动力和农村电气化水平在一半以上的年份对可持续土地利用构成障碍.在1994年之前,农民人均收入障碍度较大,是主要的障碍因素.最后根据障碍因素的分析提出了可持续土地利用的对策.     

集约农区不同土地利用方式对土壤养分状况的影响

选择山东省寿光市,通过野外调查和室内分析,利用数理统计软件SPSS,系统分析不同土地利用方式下土壤养分的分布特征、变异情况及其相关性,研究集约农区不同土地利用方式对土壤养分状况的影响。结果表明,在不同土地利用方式下,各养分含量分布存在明显规律。有机质均值的分布特征是菜地水浇地果园旱地盐碱地;全氮、碱解氮、速效钾、速效磷和有效锌均值的分布特征是菜地果园水浇地盐碱地旱地;土壤pH值、交换性镁均值的分布特征为盐碱地旱地水浇地果园菜地;交换性钙在不同利用方式中的含量为盐碱地旱地水浇地菜地果园;有效硼为果园菜地盐碱地水浇地旱地;有效铁为菜地果园水浇地旱地盐碱地;有效铜和有效锰均为果园菜地水浇地盐碱地旱地。水浇地、菜地和果园在各养分含量上差异较小,旱地和盐碱地在各养分含量上较为相似。除pH值外,其它12种土壤养分在不同土地利用方式下变异系数均较高,其中以速效磷的变异系数最大。土壤养分中除了交换性镁、有效硼与其它各养分之间的相关性较低外,其它养分之间基本为显著或极显著相关,其中pH值与其它各土壤养分均呈现显著或极显著负相关,有机质与其它各土壤养分均呈现显著或极显著正相关。     

三江平原水田灌溉-排水过程中铁形态变化及输出贡献

采集三江平原农田灌溉地下水、稻田积水、渠系排水、土壤侧渗水,并采用切向超滤技术分离水体中不同形态铁,分析在灌溉排水及地下侧渗水中铁的迁移特征,并估算水田排水中铁的输出贡献.结果表明,在灌溉排水过程中,铁主要以低分子量形态和酸性不稳定形态迁移,地下水中Fe2+含量占可溶态铁的80.45%;地下水抽取到稻田后Fe2+含量显著降低,络合态铁含量升高,稻田积水中络合态铁占可溶态铁的75.50%;稻田积水排入渠系后,络合态铁中不稳定弱配位铁含量降低13.58%,其他铁形态变化不大.稻田积水通过地下侧渗进入渠系,随侧渗水体深度加深,Fe2+含量升高,络合态和胶体态铁含量降低,地下侧渗水向渠系水主要提供络合态和胶体态铁.三江平原湿地水田化改变了水体中铁的输出形态,同时,排水过程中铁的输出也对河流形成补给,水田灌溉排水过程可溶态铁的输出通量约为390kg.a-.1km-2,输出系数为0.186,灌溉-排水过程中残留在稻田土壤中铁的量约为1460kg.a-.1km-2,残留在排水渠系土壤中铁的量约为250kg.a-.1km-2,这对三江平原水土环境产生了深远影响.