基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。     

单芯铜线过电流故障电弧熔痕的微观特征研究*

为准确认定电气火灾中过电流故障，模拟4~7倍额定电流（Ie）条件下单芯铜导线过电流故障，利用光学显微镜和扫描电子显微镜（SEM）分析过电流故障电弧熔痕的组织特征，并结合Image-Pro Plus软件测定晶粒直径、周长和面积，探究金相组织的量化判据和变化规律。结果表明:当I＝4Ie时，过电流故障电弧熔痕的金相组织主要为方向性较强的树枝晶；当I＝5Ie，6Ie时，金相组织内树枝晶占比减小，胞状晶占比升高；当I＝7Ie时，方向性较弱的胞状晶占主导。随着电流增加，晶粒的平均直径、周长和面积均呈增长趋势。通过火灾案例分析可知，实验结果与现场的电弧熔痕组织特征基本相符，验证火灾事故原因为过电流故障。     

Why are powered two wheeler riders still fatally injured in road junction crashes? – A causation analysis

Introduction: Powered Two Wheeler (PTW) crashes continue to be a road safety concern with a plateauing of the number of associated fatalities. Method: Forty one UK fatal or serious injury crashes involving a PTW and another vehicle at a junction were examined. Crash causation was analysed using the Driver Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAMv3.2). Crashes were split into two groups: Group A, where the other vehicle was travelling in the opposite direction to the PTW and commenced a right turn across the PTW’s path; and Group B where the other vehicle turned right out of a side road (or entrance) across the PTW’s path. Results: Overall, the factor that led directly to the crash (phenotype) was most commonly ‘too high speed’ or ‘too late action’ for the motorcyclist and ‘too early action’ for the other driver. Missed or late observations were contributory factors for both PTW riders and other vehicle drivers. Some differences between groups were observed with the PTW riders in Group B more likely to have ‘insufficient skills’ and the other vehicle drivers in Group A more likely to have ‘attention allocation’ as a causation factor. For both groups the crashes occurred because the other vehicle failed to give way to the PTW with causation chains that suggest ‘looked but failed to see’ is still an issue in this type of crash. The excessive speed of the PTW contributed to some crashes. Conclusions: This analysis suggests that drivers failing to give way to PTW riders at junctions is still a problem. This may relate to the ‘looked but did not see’ phenomenon. Causation differences were observed between the examined groups. Practical considerations: The DREAM methodology is an effective tool in analysing crash data from police collision investigation reports. Different countermeasures may be necessary to prevent different types of junction crashes.     

Environmental forensic investigation of the air pollution from a cement manufacturing unit

Abstract

Cement manufacturing is a process that results in the emission of significant quantities of suspended particulate matter (SPM) to the ambient air. An environmental forensic investigation was carried out in the surroundings of a major cement manufacturing unit at a place called Coimbatore in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. The investigation was carried out to identify the contribution of the cement manufacturing unit to the SPM concentration of the surrounding air environment. The sampling points’ selection and sample collection were done following the principles outlined in the INTERPOL Manual for Pollution Crime Forensic Investigation. On-site monitoring of the air samples was carried out using Mini Laser Aerosol Spectrometer (GRIMM, Mini-LAS Model 11R). The instrument was capable of measuring particles ranging from 0.25 to 32 µm and classifying them into 31 size channels. The test results at majority of the monitoring locations were well above the limits specified in the National Ambient Air Quality Standards of India. Microscopic studies of the dust samples were carried out for surface texture and particle shape. The spatial distribution of particles was analysed using geographic information system (GIS) for the visual identification of the extent of the pollution by keeping the cement factory as the focal point. The results from the GIS and microscopic analysis established the role of the cement factory in the particulate matter pollution of its surroundings, specifically in the areas North-West of the factory. The successfully adopted procedure can serve as a guideline for the environmental forensic investigation of similar pollution incidences.     

我国城乡居民环境维权方式调查分析——以大学生实践及调查问卷为样本

严重的环境污染势必会带来对公民财产和人身的损害。为探寻我国城乡居民环境维权的具体方式,选择了一些地区对其进行了调查。通过调查资料及现场调查内容的汇总分析,发现：不同维权方式、不同的雏权群体、不同环境污染（或生态破坏）类型、不同的环境污染（或生态破坏）的认知度等情形下,会有不同环境维权方式;在环境维权中,公民对政府的依赖性较大;公民理性维权需要政府与相关主体的引导。     

大王滩水库秋季浮游植物分布初探

2011年秋季对大王滩水库开展了藻类采样监测,分别从藻类定性和定量分析入手,分析了种类组成与数量的分布特征,并进行了富营养化评价。监测表明秋季大王滩水库主要是蓝藻门的细鞘丝藻占优势。垂直分布上,表层浮游植物密度大大高于底层密度,从藻类生物量看和从优势种看,大王滩水库秋季可判定为富营养状态。     

营口近岸海域污染现状调查分析

无机氮和活性磷酸盐是营口近岸海域的特征污染物,对营口近岸海域造成了一定程度的污染。通过对营口近岸海域污染调查分析,提出了控制改善这种状况的建议和措施。     

生产安全事故责任认定定量化方法的探讨

当前,我国生产安全事故的责任认定是在事故调查组分析调查事故原因后,对事故责任者承担的责任进行定性的责任认定,受一定的主观因素影响。为了避免主观因素的影响,本文提出了一种责任认定定量化方法,该方法首先从安全管理、安全技术和职业健康卫生三方面建立了完善的事故影响因素集;然后在分析事故原因后采用专家打分法(德尔菲法)确定各影响因素的影响度,并计算出与事故相关的责任者的累加影响度,即责任大小;最后根据事故造成的人员伤亡和经济损失情况对事故责任者作出处理。此方法对生产安全事故责任认定更加公正客观。     

基于实时控制的智能控制在废水处理中的应用

针对废水处理系统具有时变性、非线性、复杂性和不确定性等特点,提出采用智能控制对其进行实时有效控制从而提高处理效率、降低能耗,对智能控制的主要分支模糊控制、神经网络控制和专家系统进行讨论,介绍总结了国内外专家学者应用智能控制技术实现水处理中实时控制的最新动态。结果表明,废水处理系统采用智能控制可以有效地实现实时控制,提高处理效率、降低能耗和成本。     

杭州交通噪声投诉点污染现状调查与防治

近年来杭州交通噪声投诉点主要分布在高架道路、立交桥和绕城高速附近的高层住户。对其中9个交通噪声投诉点的监测表明,昼间超4 a类标准的有4个,超标范围为0.1~7.6 dB;夜间9个点全部超4 a标准,超标范围为5.4~17.4 dB,夜间噪声超标特别严重。采用低噪声路面,设置隔声屏障,对敏感点安装通风隔声窗以及加强交通噪声管理等对策,可减轻交通噪声对敏感点的影响,从而减少交通噪声的投诉。