Monitoring,imperfect detection,and risk optimization of a Tasmanian devil insurance population

Most species are imperfectly detected during biological surveys, which creates uncertainty around their abundance or presence at a given location. Decision makers managing threatened or pest species are regularly faced with this uncertainty. Wildlife diseases can drive species to extinction; thus, managing species with disease is an important part of conservation. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such disease that led to the listing of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) as endangered. Managers aim to maintain devils in the wild by establishing disease‐free insurance populations at isolated sites. Often a resident DFTD‐affected population must first be removed. In a successful collaboration between decision scientists and wildlife managers, we used an accessible population model to inform monitoring decisions and facilitate the establishment of an insurance population of devils on Forestier Peninsula. We used a Bayesian catch‐effort model to estimate population size of a diseased population from removal and camera trap data. We also analyzed the costs and benefits of declaring the area disease‐free prior to reintroduction and establishment of a healthy insurance population. After the monitoring session in May–June 2015, the probability that all devils had been successfully removed was close to 1, even when we accounted for a possible introduction of a devil to the site. Given this high probability and the baseline cost of declaring population absence prematurely, we found it was not cost‐effective to carry out any additional monitoring before introducing the insurance population. Considering these results within the broader context of Tasmanian devil management, managers ultimately decided to implement an additional monitoring session before the introduction. This was a conservative decision that accounted for uncertainty in model estimates and for the broader nonmonetary costs of mistakenly declaring the area disease‐free.     

Study of lignocellulosic biomass ignition properties estimation from thermogravimetric analysis

In the last decade, the use of renewable resources has increased significantly in order to reduce the energetic dependence on fossil fuels, as they have an important contribution to the global warning and greenhouse gasses effect. Because of that, research on biofuels has been increased in the last years as its characteristics of use match those of the conventional fuel's: solid biomass can be used instead of coals, and biodiesel could replace diesel. Research on solid biomass ignition properties has been considerably developed because of the amount of industrial accidents related to the treatment and use of solid biomass (self-ignition, dust explosions, etc.). On the other hand, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) is becoming and important characterization technique as it can be used to determine a wide spectrum of properties, such as kinetics, composition, proximate analysis, etc. This research aims to combine thermal analysis and ignition properties, by using the TGA to obtain the elemental composition of lignocellulosic biomass and compare those results to Minimum Ignition Energy (MIE) values test output, so a relation between composition and MIE can be found.To achieve this aim, biomass samples from different origins have been used: oil palm wastes (empty fruit bunches, mesocarp fiber and palm kernel shell), agricultural wastes (straw chops) and forestry wastes (wood chips and wood powder). Also, raw materials and torrefied biomass were compared. The hemicellulose/cellulose ratio was calculated and compared to different flammability properties, finding out that the greater the ratio and the lower the onset temperature (temperature at which the pyrolysis reaction accelerates), the lower was the minimum ignition energy. From this basis it was possible to define “tendency areas” that grouped the samples whose MIE values were similar. Three tendency areas were found: high minimum ignition energy, medium minimum ignition energy, and low ignition energy.     

侧向风速作用下聚氨酯泡沫双火源火蔓延研究

为探究环境风作用下逆向双点火源聚氨酯泡沫火蔓延及融合行为，开展多组对照实验并从材料传热机理角度分析侧向风速对火蔓延行为中火羽流形态、质量损失和辐射热流场等特征参数的影响。结果表明:风速与上述参数之间存在非线性关系。环境风效应使火焰被拉长且敷贴于预热区表面，增大预热区面积和热反馈；侧向风速的增加对FPU板材质量损失的影响逐渐弱化，且板材的熔滴率与风速呈正相关；无论侧向风是否存在，两侧逆向火焰融合后均达到整个蔓延过程中的峰值温度；风速的存在限制了火焰温度与辐射热通量峰值，也缩短了温度和辐射峰值出现的时间。     

红松阔叶混交林林隙极端地面温度的地统计学分析

以小兴安岭原始红松阔叶混交林林隙为研究对象,采用网格法布点,通过对生长季内林隙各样点极端地面温度的连续观测,利用经典统计学和地统计学的方法分析并揭示了林隙极端地面温度的时空分布格局。研究结果表明:林隙极端地面温度不同空间样点之间存在异质性,而且异质性的强度、 尺度和空间结构组成随时间而改变,各月平均极端地面温度斑块形状复杂,最高地面温度大小顺序均为6月>7月>8月>9月,最低地面温度大小顺序为7月>8月>6月>9月,月平均地温的最大值和最小值分布位置不固定,同一月份地面最高温度的大小顺序是空旷地>林隙>郁闭林分,地面最低温度大小顺序是郁闭林分>林隙>空旷地。研究旨在为红松阔叶混交林的可持续经营提供基础数据和理论参考。     

Minimum ignition energy of LDPE dust/ethylene hybrid mixture

An experimental device for evaluating the minimum ignition energy (MIE) of LDPE dust/ethylene hybrid mixture was built with the innovative mixing mode. The MIE of the hybrid mixture that contained ethylene below its lower explosive limit (LEL) was studied. The result indicated that adding a small amount of ethylene significantly reduced the MIE of the original dust cloud. All the MIEs with five different particle sizes were found to show similar trends of exponential attenuation with the increase of ethylene concentration; such attenuating effect grew as the dust particle size rose. When ethylene concentration increased and approached to its LEL, the reaction mechanism dominated by combustible dust turned into one dominated by combustible gas. The MIE decreased first and then increased with the dust mass and increased with the dust particle size. A multifactor mathematical correlation model of the MIE with the dust particle size and ethylene concentration was developed.     

池塘悬浮物COD值与灼烧减重燃烧热值的定量关系

为了快速监测水体悬浮有机物的数量,文章采用密封法测定COD,研究了池塘水体悬浮物及固体干物质样品的COD值与燃烧热值及灼烧减重之间的定量关系。结果表明:池塘水体悬浮物及固体干物质样品的COD值与燃烧热值及灼烧减重之间存在显著的相关关系。而且池塘水体悬浮物的COD值与燃烧热值之间的线性回归关系极显著,回归方程为,燃烧热值(J/L)=12.34COD(mg/L)+329.9。给定燃烧热值与有机碳的量以及与有机物量之间的换算系数,就可以推算出池塘悬浮有机物的数量。研究提出了一种池塘水体悬浮有机物的间接定量方法。     

湖北省自然保护区建设现状及空缺分析

建立自然保护区是保护生物多样性以及重要自然与文化遗产的主要措施,是保护生态环境和自然资源的基本方式,具有重大的经济、生态、文化、科学以及美学和娱乐价值。根据实地调查和资料汇总,截至2007年12月,湖北省共建立自然保护区58个,总面积108.01万hm2,占湖北省国土面积的5.79%。文章在分析已建自然保护区基础上,研究了自然保护区类型、物种多样性、区域体系布局等方面存在的空缺,提出了调整现有自然保护区(主要方式为合并、升级、扩区)和新建自然保护区(小区、点)的建议,包括合并堵河源和十八里长峡自然保护区、麋鹿自然保护区的扩区,新建三峡库区湿地自然保护区、火烧坪草地生态系统自然保护区等一批自然保护区的规划建议,为湖北省自然保护区管理和规划提供依据。     

地面爆燃式电打火装置在火炬上的应用

介绍了地面爆燃式电打火装置的结构及安装要点,实践表明该装置点火效率高、故障率低、便于检修,非常适合石油化工行业的火炬打火系统。     

井喷点火后对周边井和集气站的影响研究

以实际工程项目为例,利用计算流体动力学软件（CFD）,以3种不同压力、外界风速和2种出口直径为边界条件,分别对井喷情况下的流场分布进行了18组数值模拟计算,并对模拟结果及其对周边设施的影响进行了分析。数值模拟结果表明,在压力为10MPa,出口直径为62mm,风速为1m／s时,井喷后气流的出口速度超过400m／s,而火焰表面温度超过1500K,喷射火对周边建筑物的伤害范围超过65m,对周边的设备与建筑造成毁坏;超过104m才不会有明显伤害。     

RVVB护套线过电流诱发短路故障发生概率与起火燃烧过程分析*

为深入研究电气火灾中护套线因过电流诱发短路故障的转化过程,搭建RVVB护套线过电流诱发短路故障电路,统计短路发生概率,借助高速影像,获取短路发生的时间和次数,分析护套线起火燃烧过程。结果表明:在过电流故障发生1 h内,I≤16 A时护套线仅线芯发热、绝缘炭化,无法诱发短路;I=24 A时护套线发生短路概率为40%,在973 s内发生初次短路;32 A≤I<48 A时护套线发生多次短路的概率随电流值增大而增大,在I=48 A时达到50%,发生初次短路的时间随电流值增大而减小,最短时间为28 s;短路引发绝缘层燃烧的概率随电流值增大呈指数递增,I=24 A时护套线在短路后发生燃烧的概率为62.5%,在48 A时达到100%,短路后1 618 ms内火焰可蔓延至护套线两端,形成全线燃烧现象。研究结果可对溯源电气火灾发生的根本原因提供数据支撑。