基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。     

间接蒸发冷却新风机组净化室内PM2.5特性

为有效降低室内PM2.5,指导间接蒸发冷却新风机组的设计选型,推导了新风机组净化效力和净化能效评价指标的数学表达式,并利用自行研制的间接蒸发冷却新风机组,分析了2种过滤器在不同运行工况下净化PM2.5的特性。结果表明,MERV 7+16和MERV 7+13的计数效率均随颗粒物粒径增加而提高,且前者的计数效率高于后者;由于滤材的不同,MERV 7+16的初阻力更小。MERV 7+16的渗透系数更小,其净化效力也要大于MERV 7+13;由于PM10在室内的自然沉降作用更显著,过滤器对PM10的净化效力明显大于PM2.5和PM1。将室内新风负荷作为新风机组能耗的一部分,在对比天津和南宁地区新风机组的净化能效时发现,由于两地区冬季室外温度存在明显差异,导致处于天津地区的新风机组若要在冬季获得同等的洁净空气量,需付出更多的能耗代价。     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.     

Climate engineering and human rights

ABSTRACT

In this Forum, three scholars discuss how climate engineering will pose novel human rights challenges, and may well force reconsideration of how human rights are applied as a guide to action. Following a short introduction, the first section introduces three competing approaches to human rights, arguing views which emphasize fairness or attempt to maximize satisfaction are more promising than one viewing human rights as inviolable ‘side-constraints’. The second section draws lessons from climate migration that are relevant for climate engineering in terms of incorporating a human rights approach to duties, rights, and participation. The final section compares the ‘needs-based’ and ‘rights-based’ approaches to humanitarian work in the face of climate change and climate engineering, raising concerns for duty-bearers and right-holders. The Forum’s conclusion draws together points of overlap and suggests a path forward for policy and research on this topic.     

中义隧道片理化玄武岩段大变形控制技术研究*

为进一步探究高地应力隧道软岩大变形控制技术，以中义隧道主洞片理化玄武岩段为工程背景，提出大变形Ⅰ型支护、大变形Ⅱ型支护、大变形Ⅱ型支护（围岩加固）3种大变形控制方案，以现场试验段监测为辅助验证，采用数值仿真对3种控制方案的控制效果进行对比分析。结果表明:适宜的支护成环时间具有减缓大变形的作用；在衬砌各部位累计最大变形控制方面，控制方案3较其他方案衬砌最大变形最少减小20.8%，且变形时程曲线最终收敛；围岩最大日变形量控制方面，经过开挖断面的进一步优化以及边墙部位塑性区围岩自承能力的提高，控制方案3最大日变形量较其他支护方案至少减小20.8%。结果显示控制方案3能够稳定控制片理化玄武岩大变形，且效果最好，研究结果可为类似工程提供设计依据。     

氢安全研究现状及面临的挑战

氢能具有储运便捷、来源多样、洁净环保等突出优点,许多国家把发展氢能作为重要的能源战略。氢安全是氢能大规模商业化应用的重要保障。在分析国内外氢安全领域近年来最新研究进展的基础上,依次从氢泄漏与扩散、氢燃烧与爆炸、氢与金属材料相容性及氢风险评价等方面,系统总结了国内外氢安全研究面临的挑战,并对我国氢安全的发展提出了建议。     

Historical and contemporary indigenous marine conservation strategies in the North Pacific

Strategies to reduce, halt, and reverse global declines in marine biodiversity are needed urgently. We reviewed, coded, and synthesized historical and contemporary marine conservation strategies of the Kitasoo/Xai'xais First Nation in British Columbia, Canada to show how their approaches work. We assessed whether the conservation actions classification system by the Conservation Measures Partnership was able to encompass this nation's conservation approaches. All first-order conservation actions aligned with the Kitasoo/Xai'xais First Nation's historical and contemporary marine conservation actions; hereditary chief management responsibility played a key role. A conservation ethic permeates Kitasoo/Xai'xais culture, and indigenous resource management and conservation existed historically and remains strong despite extreme efforts by colonizers to suppress all indigenous practices. The Kitasoo/Xai'xais's embodiment of conservation actions as part of their worldview, rather than as requiring actions separate from everyday life (the norm in nonindigenous cultures), was missing from the conservation action classification system. The Kitasoo/Xai'xais are one of many indigenous peoples working to revitalize their governance and management authorities. With the Canadian government's declared willingness to work toward reconciliation, there is an opportunity to enable First Nations to lead on marine and other conservation efforts. Global conservation efforts would also benefit from enhanced support for indigenous conservation approaches, including expanding the conservation actions classification to encompass a new category of conservation or sacredness ethic.     

安全工程专业基础课翻转课堂探索应用与研究--以《燃烧学》的翻转课堂教学为例

为了培养本科生的实践能力、创新能力、团队合作等多项工程核心能力,探索性地将翻转课堂教学模式应用于安全工程专业基础课《燃烧学》教学中。结合问卷调查分析学生自主学习、沟通合作能力,教师信息技术素养、课堂管理能力,结果显示:自主学习能力强及参与度高的学生教学效果良好,期末考评中优秀率上升明显。微视频自主学习在翻转课堂课前学习中占重要地位,但并不是学生最习惯采用的自学方式;教师在课堂氛围、讨论质量及节奏把控方面还需针对性强化。     

无上部抽吸装置储罐区人工龙卷风风场模拟

为了减少因储罐泄漏位置不确定造成的人员伤亡,指导应急疏散,提出利用人工龙卷风定向控制气体流动方向的模型。首先基于Fluent软件建立了储罐区域人工龙卷风数值模型,分析切向速度和压强沿径向变化规律,发现与经典Rankine涡模型切向速度沿径向分布规律一致,证实可在储罐区以射流相切的方式形成人工龙卷风风场。其次研究了涡流比和进风量对风场控制气流特性的影响,即分析形成的龙卷风风场最大切向速度、压强差变化规律,结果表明,涡流比越大,形成的龙卷风风场中切向速度和压强差越小,即气流向中心汇聚能力越弱;进风量越大,形成的龙卷风风场中切向速度和压强差越大,即气流向中心汇聚能力越强。研究表明,用人工龙卷风控制储罐泄漏气流方向是可行的。     

Incorporating putatively neutral and adaptive genomic data into marine conservation planning

The availability of genomic data for an increasing number of species makes it possible to incorporate evolutionary processes into conservation plans. Recent studies show how genetic data can inform spatial conservation prioritization (SCP), but they focus on metrics of diversity and distinctness derived primarily from neutral genetic data sets. Identifying adaptive genetic markers can provide important information regarding the capacity for populations to adapt to environmental change. Yet, the effect of including metrics based on adaptive genomic data into SCP in comparison to more widely used neutral genetic metrics has not been explored. We used existing genomic data on a commercially exploited species, the giant California sea cucumber (Parastichopus californicus), to perform SCP for the coastal region of British Columbia (BC), Canada. Using a RAD-seq data set for 717 P. californicus individuals across 24 sampling locations, we identified putatively adaptive (i.e., candidate) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) based on genotype–environment associations with seafloor temperature. We calculated various metrics for both neutral and candidate SNPs and compared SCP outcomes with independent metrics and combinations of metrics. Priority areas varied depending on whether neutral or candidate SNPs were used and on the specific metric used. For example, targeting sites with a high frequency of warm-temperature-associated alleles to support persistence under future warming prioritized areas in the southern coastal region. In contrast, targeting sites with high expected heterozygosity at candidate loci to support persistence under future environmental uncertainty prioritized areas in the north. When combining metrics, all scenarios generated intermediate solutions, protecting sites that span latitudinal and thermal gradients. Our results demonstrate that distinguishing between neutral and adaptive markers can affect conservation solutions and emphasize the importance of defining objectives when choosing among various genomic metrics for SCP.