氢安全研究现状

氢能具有来源多样、洁净环保、可储运、可再生等优点,是新能源结构中的重要组成部分。氢能的安全使用是氢能推广利用并走向商业化道路的关键,世界各国都非常重视氢安全方面的研究。主要介绍了国内外氢安全的研究现状,总结了氢泄漏与扩散、氢燃烧与爆炸、氢与金属材料相容性等方面的研究进展,并指出了现有研究的不足之处。     

316L不锈钢抗氢性能研究现状

随着氢能的发展,尤其是国内加氢站建设出现爆发式增长,必须考虑临氢材料的氢脆问题.奥氏体不锈钢因其相对更好的抗氢腐蚀能力,在高压氢环境下的氢脆研究日益成为关注的焦点,其中316L不锈钢尤其具有代表性,在加氢站储氢压力容器和管道上均有应用.为此本文对316L抗氢性能的研究现状进行了较系统的分析、归纳和探讨.     

掺氢天然气管道故障树分析及建模软件开发

针对掺氢天然气管道可能存在的风险与隐患,分析国内外各类管道失效数据,建立了掺氢天然气管道故障树,共包含10个子树和148个底事件,在掺氢管道失效库基础上采用C#程序设计语言开发了掺氢天然气管道故障树建模软件;应用建模软件对已建立的掺氢天然气管道故障树进行分析。软件计算通过行列法求解出最小割集共189个,其中一阶最小割集106个,二阶最小割集83个;采用双循环法得到148个底事件结构重要度。分析得出防腐措施是否正常工作以及自然灾害是影响掺氢天然气管道安全运行的重要因素。     

新型油氢合建站事故风险评价及应用

油氢合建站作为新型能源基础设施,在实现传统油品加注和氢燃料运营的过程中出现诸多安全新问题。为规避此类问题带来的事故风险,以上海首座油氢合建站为研究对象,通过定性和定量相结合的方法对其建造、运营及维护过程中的事故危险源及有害因素进行风险分析。基于FTA确定引起油氢合建站内危险物质泄漏、火灾及爆炸事故的事件重要度和高风险因素,通过F&EI评价法对油氢合建站危险因素进行定量计算,确定其发生事故的最高危险等级为非常大,暴露危险区域面积为6015.65 m²。基于此,从安全管理、泄漏防控措施、防火防爆技术及事故应急处置等方面提出事故风险管控对策,采用一系列安全管控补偿措施后,油氢合建站事故危险等级降至较轻以下,暴露危险区域被控制在780 m²内。     

焊接材料熔敷金属中扩散氢及测氢标准的论述

文中对焊接接头中扩散氢的来源、危害、存在形式等进行了讨论,同时对国内外主要的测氢标准差异及常用方法之间的关系进行了比较。总结了最新版ISO 3690:2018的变化,有利于国内焊接学者了解测氢方法及国际测氢标准的最新动态。这对于确保焊接结构安全,能够科学、准确地测定熔敷金属中的扩散氢含量非常重要。     

氢能产业发展现状及其对特种设备行业的机遇和挑战

氢能产业目前进入快速发展期,相应的对车载储氢系统、氢能运输、加氢站等基础设施的发展建设提出了迫切需求。对氢能产业发展现状作了综述,并分析了氢能储运用气瓶、压力容器等特种设备在基础理论方面以及材料、设计制造、使用管理、充装卸载、定期检验等环节的技术、产品、服务、法规标准等方面需求,为下一步开展产品研发、科研等工作提供方向指导。     

氢氩混合气（5%∶95%）在空气中可爆性实验研究

为研究氢氩混合气（5%∶95%）在空气中爆炸时所对应氢、氧极限含量,按照爆炸性测试标准EN 1839—2017,测试氢氩混合气在与空气的总混合气体中不同占比时的可爆性。研究结果表明:氢氩混合气（5%∶95%）在总混合气体中体积分数为76.018%~86.029%时,总混和气体具有爆炸危险性,与之对应能够发生爆炸的最低氢气体积分数为3.8%,最低氧气体积分数为2.93%,不具有爆炸性的最高氧含量为2.72%,该值较ISO 10156—2017《气体和气体混合物-气瓶阀口选择用潜在燃烧性和氧化能力的测定》中规定的极限氧含量低,研究结果可为氢氩气与空气的混合气体爆炸事故预防提供新的参考。     

质子交换膜燃料电池电站多米诺事故概率和风险研究*

为探究氢能电站火灾爆炸事故发展规律,采用多米诺效应对电站进行事故概率和风险研究,建立氢能电站多米诺效应定量风险分析模型。基于设备受损概率模型与多米诺理论基础,提出氢能电站多米诺效应概率计算方法,并将方法运用到实际案例,结合SAFETI软件对具体多米诺事故场景进行定量计算。研究结果表明:氢能电站易发生多米诺事故,考虑一级多米诺效应后人员潜在死亡概率增加56%。研究结果可为制定氢能电站安全防控措施以及降低火灾爆炸事故对人员和设备的危害提供依据。     

埋地输氢管道泄漏爆炸事故后果模拟分析

为了输氢管道的安全建设与运营,基于计算流体力学FLACS软件,模拟了埋地输氢管道在半受限空间内的泄漏爆炸事故后果,探讨了泄漏孔径、泄漏时长、输氢压力和环境风速对爆炸事故后果的影响规律,并得出相应的危险区域。结果表明:泄漏孔径、输氢压力和最大爆炸超压均与危险区域呈正相关关系,泄漏时长对事故后果几乎无影响;随着输氢压力的增大,危险区域受建筑物和风速的影响更为明显,在建筑物附近形成了狭长的危险区域带;最大爆炸超压和危险区域随环境风速的增大均呈现出先增大后减小的趋势。     

含堆焊层临氢设备HTHA敏感性评价修正方法

加氢反应器等高温临氢设备由于长期在高温高压含氢或氢与硫化氢环境下服役,可能会出现高温氢腐蚀(HTHA)、氢脆等损伤现象,直接关系到装置的长期稳定可靠运行。为了防止出现氢损伤现象,多采用奥氏体不锈钢单层或多层堆焊技术。针对RBI技术中HTHA模块对于含堆焊层结构的临氢设备在评估时并未考虑堆焊层的影响,从氢扩散理论出发,考虑堆焊层的影响,提出采用有效氢分压的方法开展HTHA敏感性Pv因子的计算,并改进了E347+E309L双层堆焊层结构的临界Pv修正因子。     

基于氢气充放试验及数值模拟的储氢气瓶安全评价

储氢气瓶是新能源汽车的重要储能设备,其可靠性直接关系到汽车的安全性。研究了不同环境温度下,35 MPa铝合金内胆车用储氢III型气瓶在充放气时的最终温度和应力分布情况,并对其安全性进行了评价。借助试验测试平台,在不同温度下进行了实际充放试验。试验过程中无漏气现象,且最终温度符合要求,表明储氢气瓶在试验条件下是安全的。由此,在获得了储氢气瓶充放时热响应规律的基础上,对不同温度下的氢气充放过程进行了数值模拟,得到其应力分布情况。结果表明,储氢气瓶复合层的应力远小于其材料抗拉强度,即内胆和复合层的强度均可视为满足要求。研究结果可为储氢气瓶的试验开展、安全评价、寿命预测提供依据。     

Risk assessment in the offshore industry

This paper describes the implementation and use of risk assessment in the offshore industry in relation to safety aspects — safety to people's life and health, as well as environment and property. Although risk assessments may be based on both qualitative and quantitative methods, the main focus here will be on quantitative risk assessments (QRA). The development of offshore QRA has been lead by a mutual influence and interaction between the regulatory authorities for the UK and Norwegian sectors of the North Sea as well as the oil companies operating here. The experience from this area has been the main basis during the writing of this paper.     

化工园区安全规划发展历史回顾

系统回顾了化工园区安全规划的发展历史,简要介绍不同国家化工园区安全规划的分区制思想以及相应的法律法规要求。以1970年代中期为界,化工园区安全规划历史大体可分为两个阶段。第一阶段基本确立了土地利用规划分区制的思想,风险越大,工业活动就建设在距人居环境越远的区域。但由于没有量化的理论和方法支持,因此,不能准确确定合适的安全距离。第二阶段从科学的土地利用规划开始并得益于定量风险评价的日趋成熟和广泛使用。由于能够定量计算出比较准确的安全距离和可承受风险,因而可以更好地进行工业活动分区和安全规划。目前单纯基于风险的安全规划暴露出一定的局限性,人们不仅要考虑工业活动的潜在风险,而且需要综合考虑经济、社会、环境、生态以及人文历史等诸多因素,因此,急需研究能够综合处理复杂问题的安全规划理论和方法。回顾历史并分析和比较,笔者认为,科学的安全规划是预防重特大事故的根本措施之一,健全的法制基础是实施安全规划的必要保障,风险评价技术是实施安全规划的有力武器。取得的研究成果对我国化工园区以及其他工业园区的建设具有一定的借鉴和启迪作用。     

室内氢气泄漏扩散的数值模拟

氢能是有发展前景的新型能源之一,氢气的安全储存是氢能应用必须解决的问题。本文建立了基于大容量金属储氢装置的室内氢气泄漏扩散模型,利用计算流体力学软件FLUENT,对室内储氢罐的泄漏扩散过程进行数值模拟,得到了氢气泄漏扩散的速度分布、浓度分布。分析数值模拟结果,得出在该模拟条件下,氢气泄漏时的流动状态为射流湍流;泄漏后上浮扩散,空间密闭时积累于室顶;通风条件下大部分区域的氢气浓度仍然高于安全限值。通过数值模拟,总结出氢气在室内环境下的泄漏扩散规律,可为氢气泄漏事故的处理消防安全设置提供依据。     

Inherent risk assessment—A new concept to evaluate risk in preliminary design stage

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) has been a very popular and useful methodology which is widely accepted by the industry over the past few decades. QRA is typically carried out at a stage where complete plant has been designed and sited. At that time, the opportunity to include inherent safety design features is limited and may incur higher cost. This paper proposes a new concept to evaluate risk inherent to a process owing to the chemical it uses and the process conditions. The risk assessment tool is integrated with process design simulator (HYSYS) to provide necessary process data as early as the initial design stages, where modifications based on inherent safety principles can still be incorporated to enhance the process safety of the plant. The risk assessment tool consists of two components which calculate the probability and the consequences relating to possible risk due to major accidents. A case study on the potential explosion due to the release of flammable material demonstrates that the tool is capable to identify potential high risk of process streams. Further improvement of the process design is possible by applying inherent safety principles to make the process under consideration inherently safer. Since this tool is fully integrated with HYSYS, re-evaluation of the inherent risk takes very little time and effort. The new tool addresses the lack of systematic methodology and technology, which is one of the barriers to designing inherently safer plants.     

低概率重大事故风险与定量风险评价

论述应用定量风险评价(QRA)对评价、控制低概率重大事故风险的重要意义.介绍了低概率重大风险范畴与主要来源,QRA技术的主要用途与基本方法,研发与使用QRA计算重大风险的主要技术程序.提出了在应用QRA评价重大风险时应注意的几个主要技术问题.     

“三高”气田钻井过程硫化氢泄漏动态风险分析

传统的H2S泄漏风险分析方法不能很好地对事故发展过程进行动态分析,导致分析结果偏离实际。基于贝叶斯方法,构建了高温、高压、高含硫（“三高”）气田钻井过程中H2S泄漏的蝴蝶结模型并提出将其转化为贝叶斯网络,在事故已发生的情况下更新基本事件发生的概率。然后,假定事故后果在确定的时间段内发生的累积次数已知的条件下,更新安全屏障及事故后果发生的概率,从而完成对H2S泄漏的动态风险分析。结果表明,该方法克服了传统静态定量分析方法中的不足,可动态评估导致H2S泄漏的基本事件发生的概率和对顶事件发生的影响程度,并动态反映安全屏障和事故后果的风险变化,能为钻井过程中H2S泄漏的风险分析及防控措施提供参考。     

气态加氢站定量风险评估研究

从加氢站的事故场景、事故频率、事故后果、死亡概率和个人及社会风险5个方面进行研究,提出气态加氢站定量风险分析模型,并结合某加氢站进行了实例计算分析,计算出该加氢站量化的个人风险和社会风险,经与国内外认可的可接受风险标准比较后,得出其风险水平是否可接受的分析结论。     

Dynamic risk assessment using failure assessment and Bayesian theory

To ensure the safety of a process system, engineers use different methods to identify the potential hazards that may cause severe consequences. One of the most popular methods used is quantitative risk assessment (QRA) which quantifies the risk associated with a particular process activity. One of QRA's major disadvantages is its inability to update risk during the life of a process. As the process operates, abnormal events will result in incidents and near misses. These events are often called accident precursors. A conventional QRA process is unable to use the accident precursor information to revise the risk profile. To overcome this, a methodology has been proposed based on the work of Meel and Seider (2006). Similar to Meel and Seider (2006) work, this methodology uses Bayesian theory to update the likelihood of the event occurrence and also failure probability of the safety system. In this paper the proposed methodology is outlined and its application is demonstrated using a simple case study. First, potential accident scenarios are identified and represented in terms of an event tree, next, using the event tree and available failure data end-state probabilities are estimated. Subsequently, using the available accident precursor data, safety system failure likelihood and event tree end-state probabilities are revised. The methodology has been simulated using deterministic (point value) as well as probabilistic approach. This Methodology is applied to a case study demonstrating a storage tank containing highly hazardous chemicals. The comparison between conventional QRA and the results from dynamic failure assessment approach shows the significant deviation in system failure frequency throughout the life time of the process unit.     

A new look at release event frequencies

Within the context of a quantitative risk analysis (QRA), the two main constituents used to describe petrochemical risks are, and have always been, consequence and probability. The consequences of hazardous material accidents are easy to apprehend – if a hazard is realized it can injure people or cause fatalities, damage equipment or other assets, or cause environmental damage. Frequencies for these consequences, on the other hand, are not as easy to understand. Process safety professionals develop event frequencies by evaluating historical data and calculating incident rates, which represent, in the QRA context, how often a release of a hazardous material has occurred. Incident rates are further modified by probabilities for various hole sizes, release orientations, weather conditions, ignition timing, and other factors, to arrive at unique event probabilities that are applied in the QRA. This paper describes the development of incident rates from historical database information for various equipment types, as well as defining a methodology for assigning hole size probabilities from the same data, such that a hole size distribution can be assigned within each QRA study. The combination of total incident rates and a hole size distribution relationship can then serve as a foundation within the frequency side of many QRA studies.