Risk perception by offshore workers on UK oil and gas platforms

This paper reports the first investigation of risk perception by workers on offshore oil and gas installations on the UK Continental Shelf, following changes in offshore safety legislation in the wake of the Piper Alpha disaster in 1988. The Offshore Safety Case regulations (Health and Safety Executive, 1992, A Guide to the Offshore Installations (Safety Case) Regulations) put the onus on the operator to identify the major hazards and to reduce the risks to As Low As is Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). The regulations specifically state that Quantitative Risk Assessments (QRA) must be used when preparing the Safety Case. However, people do not use QRA when making everyday judgements about risk; they make subjective judgements known as risk perceptions, which are influenced by a number of different factors. This study was designed to complement the extensive QRA calculations that have already been carried out in the development of Safety Cases. The aim was to measure subjective risk perception in offshore personnel and examine how this relates to the more objective risk data available, namely accident records and QRA calculations. This paper describes the Offshore Risk Perception Questionnaire developed to collect the data and reports on UK offshore workers' perceptions of the risks associated with major and minor hazards, work tasks and other activities aboard production platforms.     

A new look at release event frequencies

Within the context of a quantitative risk analysis (QRA), the two main constituents used to describe petrochemical risks are, and have always been, consequence and probability. The consequences of hazardous material accidents are easy to apprehend – if a hazard is realized it can injure people or cause fatalities, damage equipment or other assets, or cause environmental damage. Frequencies for these consequences, on the other hand, are not as easy to understand. Process safety professionals develop event frequencies by evaluating historical data and calculating incident rates, which represent, in the QRA context, how often a release of a hazardous material has occurred. Incident rates are further modified by probabilities for various hole sizes, release orientations, weather conditions, ignition timing, and other factors, to arrive at unique event probabilities that are applied in the QRA. This paper describes the development of incident rates from historical database information for various equipment types, as well as defining a methodology for assigning hole size probabilities from the same data, such that a hole size distribution can be assigned within each QRA study. The combination of total incident rates and a hole size distribution relationship can then serve as a foundation within the frequency side of many QRA studies.     

安全文化分析及其发展

安全文化通常用于描述如何在工作场所对安全进行管理,通常表现为员工对安全的态度、信任、观念、和价值标准等。通过分析事故原因,证实在诸如工艺、设备等一系列硬件条件对安全生产起决定性作用的因素之外,安全文化作为安全生产的重要组成部分,在安全生产过程中起决定性作用。这一认知在切尔诺贝利核电站事故等一系列国内外的安全生产事故的回顾和调查中逐渐清晰并为人所接受。通过安全文化概念的发展,对比各种安全文化定义的阐释,分析安全文化所包含的特征要素,论述安全文化的重要性并展示其复杂性。在分析安全文化评价方法的基础上对安全文化评价方法融入安全评价的可能做出展望,为进一步的安全文化评价研究提供参考。     

Dynamic risk assessment using failure assessment and Bayesian theory

To ensure the safety of a process system, engineers use different methods to identify the potential hazards that may cause severe consequences. One of the most popular methods used is quantitative risk assessment (QRA) which quantifies the risk associated with a particular process activity. One of QRA's major disadvantages is its inability to update risk during the life of a process. As the process operates, abnormal events will result in incidents and near misses. These events are often called accident precursors. A conventional QRA process is unable to use the accident precursor information to revise the risk profile. To overcome this, a methodology has been proposed based on the work of Meel and Seider (2006). Similar to Meel and Seider (2006) work, this methodology uses Bayesian theory to update the likelihood of the event occurrence and also failure probability of the safety system. In this paper the proposed methodology is outlined and its application is demonstrated using a simple case study. First, potential accident scenarios are identified and represented in terms of an event tree, next, using the event tree and available failure data end-state probabilities are estimated. Subsequently, using the available accident precursor data, safety system failure likelihood and event tree end-state probabilities are revised. The methodology has been simulated using deterministic (point value) as well as probabilistic approach. This Methodology is applied to a case study demonstrating a storage tank containing highly hazardous chemicals. The comparison between conventional QRA and the results from dynamic failure assessment approach shows the significant deviation in system failure frequency throughout the life time of the process unit.     

Introducing the STAMP method in road tunnel safety assessment

After the tremendous accidents in European road tunnels over the past decade, many risk assessment methods have been proposed worldwide, most of them based on Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). Although QRAs are helpful to address physical aspects and facilities of tunnels, current approaches in the road tunnel field have limitations to model organizational aspects, software behavior and the adaptation of the tunnel system over time. This paper reviews the aforementioned limitations and highlights the need to enhance the safety assessment process of these critical infrastructures with a complementary approach that links the organizational factors to the operational and technical issues, analyze software behavior and models the dynamics of the tunnel system. To achieve this objective, this paper examines the scope for introducing a safety assessment method which is based on the systems thinking paradigm and draws upon the STAMP model. The method proposed is demonstrated through a case study of a tunnel ventilation system and the results show that it has the potential to identify scenarios that encompass both the technical system and the organizational structure. However, since the method does not provide quantitative estimations of risk, it is recommended to be used as a complementary approach to the traditional risk assessments rather than as an alternative.     

氢安全研究现状及面临的挑战

氢能具有储运便捷、来源多样、洁净环保等突出优点,许多国家把发展氢能作为重要的能源战略。氢安全是氢能大规模商业化应用的重要保障。在分析国内外氢安全领域近年来最新研究进展的基础上,依次从氢泄漏与扩散、氢燃烧与爆炸、氢与金属材料相容性及氢风险评价等方面,系统总结了国内外氢安全研究面临的挑战,并对我国氢安全的发展提出了建议。     

Confidence-based quantitative risk analysis for offshore accidental hydrocarbon release events

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) has been widely used to conduct the assessment of offshore accidental risks. However, the accuracy and validity of QRA is significantly affected by uncertainties when subjective judgments are involved. Therefore, it is unrealistic to determine the probability of a hazardous event by using one single explicit value when safety experts have a relatively low confidence level in their judgments. This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties into conventional QRA using the concept of confidence level. Offshore hydrocarbon release hazards are focused on and a barrier and operational risk analysis (BORA-Release) method is selected as the basic model to illustrate the proposed methodology. A left–right (L–R) bell-shaped fuzzy number is employed and its membership curve is able to control its shape to represent different confidence levels. As to the complex geometry of the bell-shaped fuzzy number, an α-cut operation is introduced to conduct the arithmetic operations of the fuzzy number, and a defuzzification method with total integral value is chosen to match the α-cut operations and acquire complete information for the fuzzy numbers. In the meantime, an optimism index is used to describe the attitude of the decision-maker. One case study is provided in this paper to demonstrate the implementation of this method.     

Modeling of BP Texas City refinery incident

This paper presents detailed modeling results of the BP Texas City refinery incident. Three different approaches and explosion modeling tools were used to study the event. The results predicted by all three approaches are similar and all approaches identified a hazard potential comparable to what was witnessed on March 23, 2005. This confirms that quantitative risk assessment (QRA) has the ability to model a realistic scenario, and is therefore useful in safety measure design and emergency preparedness decision making to improve overall safety performance. Had QRA been conducted during a management of change (MOC) decision-making process, personnel trailers likely would not have been sited in such close proximity to the process units. The resulting severe consequences would then not have occurred. This work also aims to emphasize the importance of QRA in process safety management.

The paper presents the authors’ perception of the sequence of events involved in the incident based on the published literature available at the time of writing. It also assesses potential consequences for the perceived sequence of events using a variety of consequence assessment tools. In doing so, the analysis illustrates how this incident could have been prevented in spite of many operational difficulties. The observations and commentary presented in this paper are intended solely for the purpose of process safety enhancement on the basis of the lessons learned. BP has published its own detailed report; the incident is also the subject of a recent investigation by the US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board, with the CSB's final report being available at http://www.csb.gov/index.cfm?folder=completed_investigations&page=info&INV_ID=52 (as of April 2007).     

低概率重大事故风险与定量风险评价

论述应用定量风险评价(QRA)对评价、控制低概率重大事故风险的重要意义.介绍了低概率重大风险范畴与主要来源,QRA技术的主要用途与基本方法,研发与使用QRA计算重大风险的主要技术程序.提出了在应用QRA评价重大风险时应注意的几个主要技术问题.     

A model for estimating the impact of the domino effect on accident frequencies in quantitative risk assessments of storage facilities

It is well known that the domino effect can have a major impact on accidents in storage facilities, as it can increase the consequences of an initial event considerably. However, quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) do not usually take the domino effect into account in a detailed, systematic way, mostly because of its complexity and the difficulties involved in its incorporation. We have developed a simple method to include the domino effect in QRAs of storage facilities, by estimating the frequency with which new accidents will occur due to this phenomenon. The method has been programmed and implemented in two case studies. The results show that it can indeed be used to include the possibility of domino effect occurrence in a QRA. Furthermore, depending on the design of a facility, the domino effect can have a significant effect on the associated risk.     

The importance of near miss reporting to further improve safety performance

Dealing with accidents implies that such events have in common the potential to affect people and the environment in a significant way. Therefore, all parties involved in industrial risk management processes, i.e. industry, regulatory authorities, public as well as scientific and technical institutions, are well aware of the importance of considering and analysing such type of events for the purposes of accident prevention. Also, the methods of Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) have large experience in numerically expressing the various degrees of risk related to accidents. On the other hand, the topic of including `near misses' (i.e. any event which could have escalated to an accident) in safety management systems with the aim to prevent major accidents and the occurrence of similar events in the future is relatively new. Although its importance has more and more been recognised in the last few years, it is not yet a commonly accepted fact that near miss reporting and investigation of near misses should be an integral part of a safety management system in industrial facilities. In the European Council's new `Seveso II Directive' 96/82/EC, there is—in addition to the mandatory requirements of major accident reporting—an explicit recommendation to report near misses to the Commission's Major Accident Reporting System (MARS) on a voluntary basis. In this paper, examples of current experience in the chemical industry with the collection and analysis of data on near misses are presented and discussed with regard to industry-wide conclusions. In addition to this more qualitative discussion, quantitative arguments are put forward regarding the impact of near misses on risk estimates derived from QRA.     

Quantitative risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks using geographical information systems

This paper presents a novel quantitative risk analysis process for urban natural gas pipeline networks using geographical information systems (GIS). The process incorporates an assessment of failure rates of integrated pipeline networks, a quantitative analysis model of accident consequences, and assessments of individual and societal risks. Firstly, the failure rates of the pipeline network are calculated using empirical formulas influenced by parameters such as external interference, corrosion, construction defects, and ground movements. Secondly, the impacts of accidents due to gas leakage, diffusion, fires, and explosions are analyzed by calculating the area influenced by poisoning, burns, and deaths. Lastly, based on the previous analyses, individual risks and social risks are calculated. The application of GIS technology helps strengthen the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) model and allows construction of a QRA system for urban gas pipeline networks that can aid pipeline management staff in demarcating high risk areas requiring more frequent inspections.     

Embedding the human factor in road tunnel risk analysis

The paper is focusing on road tunnel safety and builds upon the Directive 2004/54/EC launched by the European Commission; the latter sets basic requirements and suggests the implementation of risk assessment in several tunnel cases apart from technical measures imposed on the basis of tunnel structural and operational characteristics. Since the EU Directive does not indicate the method for performing risk assessment, a wide range of methods have been proposed, most of them based on quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Although the majority of current road tunnel QRAs assess physical aspects of the tunnel system and consider several hazards concerning the transportation of dangerous goods through a tunnel, they do not take into account, sufficiently, several organizational and human-related factors that can greatly affect the overall safety level of these critical infrastructures. To cope with this limitation this paper proposes a fuzzy logic system based on CREAM method for human reliability analysis (Hollnagel, 1998) in order to provide more sophisticated estimations of the tunnel operator's performance in safety critical situations. It is deduced that a human reliability analysis component to analyze operator performance, like the fuzzy system proposed here, is important for risk analysts. Consideration of organizational and human factors will enhance risk analysts’ studies and highlight the uncertainty related to human performance variability.     

油气长输管道定量风险评价

管道风险评价普遍采用以Kent打分法为代表的定性方法,笔者提出了一种新方法,即定量风险评价(QRA),采用基于管道失效历史数据库和已有成熟的数值模型,进行管道失效概率分析和失效后果分析,并以此方法在某输气管道上进行了验证,最后得到管段的绝对风险和人口密集段的个人风险,并进行了风险预测。研究表明,QRA受人员主观判断影响较小,计算方法科学合理,结果量化,对进行检测与维护维修资源的分配具有很好的指导意义。     

A quantitative risk management framework for dust and hybrid mixture explosions

Dust and hybrid-mixture explosions continue to occur in industrial processes that handle fine powders and flammable gases. Considerable research is therefore conducted throughout the world with the objective of both preventing the occurrence and mitigating the consequences of such events. In the current work, research has been undertaken to help move the field of dust explosion prevention and mitigation from its current emphasis on hazards (with an accompanying reliance on primarily engineered safety features) to a focus on risk (with an accompanying reliance on hierarchical, risk-based, decision-making tools). Employing the principles of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of dust and hybrid-mixture explosions, a methodological framework for the management of these risks has been developed.The QRA framework is based on hazard identification via credible accident scenarios for dust explosions, followed by probabilistic fault-tree analysis (using Relex – Reliability Excellence – software) and consequence severity analysis (using DESC – Dust Explosion Simulation Code – software). Identification of risk reduction measures in the framework is accomplished in a hierarchical manner by considering inherent safety measures, passive and active engineered devices, and procedural measures (in that order). An industrial case study is presented to show how inherent safety measures such as dust minimization and dust/process moderation can be helpful in reducing dust and hybrid-mixture explosion consequences in a 400-m³ polyethylene storage silo.     

Inherent safety in offshore oil and gas activities: a review of the present status and future directions

Inherent safety is a proactive approach for hazard/risk management during process plant design and operation. It has been proven that, considering the lifetime costs of a process and its operation, an inherently safer approach is a cost-optimal option. Inherent safety can be incorporated at any stage of design and operation; however, its application at the earliest possible stages of process design (such as process selection and conceptual design) yields the best results.Although it is an attractive and cost-effective approach to hazard/risk management, inherent safety has not been used as widely as other techniques such as HAZOP and quantitative risk assessment. There are many reasons responsible for this; key among them are a lack of awareness and the non-availability of a systematic methodology and tools.The inherent safety approach is the best option for hazard/risk management in offshore oil and gas activities. In the past, it has been applied to several aspects of offshore process design and operation. However, its use is still limited. This article attempts to present a complete picture of inherent safety application in offshore oil and gas activities. It discuses the use of available technology for implementation of inherent safety principles in various offshore activities, both current and planned for the future.     

Inherent risk assessment—A new concept to evaluate risk in preliminary design stage

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) has been a very popular and useful methodology which is widely accepted by the industry over the past few decades. QRA is typically carried out at a stage where complete plant has been designed and sited. At that time, the opportunity to include inherent safety design features is limited and may incur higher cost. This paper proposes a new concept to evaluate risk inherent to a process owing to the chemical it uses and the process conditions. The risk assessment tool is integrated with process design simulator (HYSYS) to provide necessary process data as early as the initial design stages, where modifications based on inherent safety principles can still be incorporated to enhance the process safety of the plant. The risk assessment tool consists of two components which calculate the probability and the consequences relating to possible risk due to major accidents. A case study on the potential explosion due to the release of flammable material demonstrates that the tool is capable to identify potential high risk of process streams. Further improvement of the process design is possible by applying inherent safety principles to make the process under consideration inherently safer. Since this tool is fully integrated with HYSYS, re-evaluation of the inherent risk takes very little time and effort. The new tool addresses the lack of systematic methodology and technology, which is one of the barriers to designing inherently safer plants.     

海上钻井平台安全风险预警模型应用研究

2010年美国墨西哥湾“深水地平线”钻井平台爆炸和2011年我国蓬莱钻井平台井涌事故,引发社会各界对海上钻井平台安全问题的关注.介绍了海洋钻井平台的组成结构,对海洋钻井平台的危险源进行了系统辨识,试图通过对海上钻井平台作业现场危险因素加以观察,诊断、分析警源、警情,警兆,警级,结合专家意见,从人员、设施设备、安全管理、工程地质、海上环境等几个方面建立海上钻井平台安全风险预警体系,采用改进的层次分析法,得出指标权重,构建海洋钻井平台安全风险预警模型,得到量化的预警结果.并通过对某钻井平台的实例分析,提出安全风险的预控对策,以期本模型对海上钻井平台的事故的发生起到一定的防范作用.     

海洋石油轮班作业风险定量分析方法研究

长期以来,海洋石油领域风险研究主要集中在对设施的潜在失效概率和后果研究方面,而对于人员可靠性及风险管理方面的研究较弱。然而,据统计资料显示,海上设施在其生命周期内的设计、建造和生产作业等各个阶段中发生的事故大多与人为错误和组织错误（HOE）有关联。在海洋工程领域,开展人员可靠性分析（HRA）的研究工作具有重要意义。根据海上作业的特殊性及轮班制度的特点,推导出轮班风险的定量分析公式,据此计算出每个工作日轮班风险的相对大小,然后结合我国海上作业的实际情况,对影响轮班风险的可变因素进行了敏感性分析,为风险控制与管理提供参考。