走滑断层作用下X80管道设计应变规律和神经网络预测

走滑断层是埋地管道常见的地质灾害威胁，断层作用下管道会发生较大的拉压应变而失效。为得到X80管道的设计应变，基于有限元方法建立了走滑断层作用下管道的应变响应数值计算模型，模型使用壳单元模拟管道，非线性弹簧单元模拟土壤约束，采用西二线实际工程的管道应变影响参数范围，计算了管道的设计应变；为预测管道的设计应变值，基于以上参数化分析得到的4 817组设计应变结果，采用人工神经网络建立了管道设计应变预测模型。结果表明:该神经网络模型预测结果的最大相对误差小于10%，预测准确性良好，且该方法具有较高的计算效率，可以为断层作用下埋地管道的应变设计与评估提供参考。     

单芯铜线过电流故障电弧熔痕的微观特征研究*

为准确认定电气火灾中过电流故障，模拟4~7倍额定电流（Ie）条件下单芯铜导线过电流故障，利用光学显微镜和扫描电子显微镜（SEM）分析过电流故障电弧熔痕的组织特征，并结合Image-Pro Plus软件测定晶粒直径、周长和面积，探究金相组织的量化判据和变化规律。结果表明:当I＝4Ie时，过电流故障电弧熔痕的金相组织主要为方向性较强的树枝晶；当I＝5Ie，6Ie时，金相组织内树枝晶占比减小，胞状晶占比升高；当I＝7Ie时，方向性较弱的胞状晶占主导。随着电流增加，晶粒的平均直径、周长和面积均呈增长趋势。通过火灾案例分析可知，实验结果与现场的电弧熔痕组织特征基本相符，验证火灾事故原因为过电流故障。     

基于新常态下环境监察执法的难点和重点分析

随着社会经济的发展和人民生活水平的日益提高,广大人民对环境的要求也达到了一个新的高度。在新常态下,如何加强环境监察执法力度与效率、高效解决环境问题、改善生态环境,成为普遍关注的问题。本文从当下环境监察执法工作中的重点与难点出发,分析了新常态下的环境局势,并给出了几点新常态背景下高效开展环境监察执法工作的措施,以期能够改进环境监察执法现状,促进环境问题的早日解决。     

基于非线性技术锅炉故障分析*

为预测和判断锅炉故障的发生，完善锅炉故障检测技术，基于锅炉运转具有非线性特点，提出将非线性评价指标应用于锅炉故障诊断。研究特征信号的非线性特性，通过确定延迟时间和嵌入维数来重构相空间；采用混沌分形理论研究非线性评价指标；提取最大Lyapunov指数和关联维数，并为收集的每种特征信号选择最合适的非线性指标。结果表明:蒸汽压力的非线性特征指标应选择关联维数，烟气温度1、烟气温度2、水管温度1和水管温度2的非线性特征指标应当选择最大Lyapunov指数。     

PLS-based EWMA fault detection strategy for process monitoring

Fault detection (FD) and diagnosis in industrial processes is essential to ensure process safety and maintain product quality. Partial least squares (PLS) has been used successfully in process monitoring because it can effectively deal with highly correlated process variables. However, the conventional PLS-based detection metrics, such as the Hotelling's T² and the Q statistics are ill suited to detect small faults because they only use information from the most recent observations. Other univariate statistical monitoring methods, such as the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control scheme, has shown better abilities to detect small faults. However, EWMA can only be used to monitor single variables. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to combine the advantages of the univariate EWMA and PLS methods to enhance their performances and widen their applicability in practice. The performance of the proposed PLS-based EWMA FD method was compared with that of the conventional PLS FD method through two simulated examples, one using synthetic data and the other using simulated distillation column data. The simulation results clearly show the effectiveness of the proposed method over the conventional PLS, especially in the presence of faults with small magnitudes.     

基于可公度法的航材故障预测

介绍了可公度性的概念和可公度信息预测理论。应用可公度信息预测理论,以故障时间窗口期为研究对象,对航材故障预测进行了初步探索,进而建立了一种较为实用的预测模型,并且给出了具体算例,验证所建模型的科学性和有效性。通过与指数平滑法预测模型对比可看到可公度预测模型精度更高且计算模型更为简单,为航材故障次数预测提供了一种解决方案。进而可以更好地应用在实践当中,提高航材管理水平,保障飞行任务的完成。     

基于GIS的断层构造对滑坡灾害发育控制作用分析——以雅安市雨城区为例

断层是滑坡发育的影响因素之一。选择雅安市雨城区和区域内232处滑坡作为研究的基础资料,通过地理信息系统空间分析技术及作者提出的滑坡影响因子贡献率的方法,得到了研究区内断层100m和200m缓冲区对滑坡的贡献率,定量研究了断层对研究区域滑坡发育的关系。研究结果表明,研究区域断层对滑坡敏感性不大,100m断层缓冲区较200m断层缓冲区贡献率值较大,为下一步研究区域滑坡危险度区划奠定了基础,同时为区域防灾提供了科学依据。     

Water quality evaluation based on improved fuzzy matter-element method

For natural water, method of water quality evaluation based on improved fuzzy matter-element evaluation method is presented. Two important parts are improved, the weights determining and fuzzy membership functions. The coefficient of variation of each indicator is used to determine the weight instead of traditional calculating superscales method. On the other hand, fuzzy matter-elements are constructed, and normal membership degrees are used instead of traditional trapezoidal ones. The composite fuzzy matter-elements with associated coefficient are constructed through associated transformation. The levels of natural water quality are determined according to the principle of maximum correlation. The improved fuzzy matter-element evaluation method is applied to evaluate water quality of the Luokou mainstream estuary at the first ten weeks in 2011 with the coefficient of variation method determining the weights. Water quality of Luokou mainstream estuary is dropping from level I to level II. The results of the improved evaluation method are basically the same as the official water quality. The variation coefficient method can reduce the workload, and overcome the adverse effects from abnormal values, compared with the traditional calculating superscales method. The results of improved fuzzy matter-element evaluation method are more credible than the ones of the traditional evaluation method. The improved evaluation method can use information of monitoring data more scientifically and comprehensively, and broaden a new evaluation method for water quality assessment.     

厌氧序批式反应器预处理垃圾渗滤液的碳平衡研究

为初步了解垃圾渗滤液中有机物降解过程的物质和能量转化,对渗滤液实际处理工程提供借鉴,在最优工艺参数条件下,分别用处于中温(35±1)℃和常温状态的厌氧序批式反应器(ASBR)对垃圾渗滤液进行预处理。通过对反应器内的液相、气相和固相碳素进行全面的分析测定,结果表明:中温(常温)条件下,整个反应周期内约有86.4%(77.6%)的碳进入气相,约有1.7%(1.4%)的碳进入固相,其余约11.7%(22.3%)的碳仍存于液相中;其中,进入气相部分的碳有77.6%(71.3%)以甲烷形式存在,8.8%(4.7%)以二氧化碳形式存在,这说明ASBR预处理垃圾渗滤液过程中产生的甲烷资源化利用潜力较大。另外,反应器在中温状态下较常温状态处理效果更佳。     

利用卫星资料估算我国西北地区直接辐射

在缺乏直接辐射、云量、日照时数等地面观测资料情况下,如何正确估算太阳直接辐射对太阳能合理开发利用有重要意义。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、EOS-AURA卫星和FY-2C气象卫星反演资料,采用一个改进的宽带辐射传输模型对我国西北5个地面辐射站点2006年和2007年直射日曝辐量进行了估算。模型首先在Bird模型基础上对晴空条件下的太阳直接辐射进行了计算,然后结合FY-2C气象卫星总云量和云类反演数据,引入了一个线性方程,对实际天气状况下的直射日曝辐量进行了计算。结果表明:5个站点模拟的直射日曝辐量与实测值均存在较好一致性,评价效率系数NSE介于0.68~0.8,而对月均直射日曝辐量的模拟结果则显示模型在4-10月的估算精度要高于11-3月结果。