基于GM-SVR的小样本条件下化工设备可靠性预测

为了准确预测化工设备可靠性趋势，针对化工设备失效寿命数据为小样本的情形，基于灰色估计法与支持向量回归机在小样本数据处理中的优势，建立了失效寿命时间服从三参数威布尔分布的化工设备可靠性模型；结合GM（1，1）和SVR对模型进行参数估计，在压缩机可靠性分析中进行了实例应用，对比分析了最小二乘法、灰色估计法和GM-SVR的估计效果。研究结果表明:GM-SVR对威布尔分布参数的估计精度明显优于最小二乘法和灰色估计法，可以有效地应用于化工设备失效数据为小样本时的可靠性预测。     

大尺度障碍物与泄爆面对天然气内爆炸的协同作用规律研究

为阐释民用建筑内部大尺度物品与门窗等泄爆面对天然气爆炸灾害的协同作用机制，基于典型厨房空间布局及内部物品特征，借助计算流体动力学技术研究了不同泄爆面开启压力和不同大尺度障碍物体积阻塞率条件下天然气内爆炸火焰速度、爆炸超压的分布规律。研究结果表明:大尺度障碍物与泄爆面对室内天然气爆炸过程具有显著的协同作用，共同促进火焰速度与爆炸超压的显著增长，并缩短峰值超压到达时间；大尺度障碍物的存在虽然显著降低了室内天然气的体积，但从增加房间内湍流源和相对长径比的角度进一步促进了泄爆效应；大尺度障碍物与泄爆面协同作用下，室内火焰速度呈现明显的阶段性特征，并在泄爆面附近发生波动。研究结论可为民用建筑物内气体爆炸事故调查分析和灾害评估提供科学依据。     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

预腐蚀铝合金材料裂纹萌生寿命评估

铝合金在航空工业中广泛应用,因此对于铝合金构件的寿命评估很重要。利用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)原位观测技术,研究了预腐蚀铝合金试件在循环应力作用下的疲劳裂纹萌生和扩展行为。结果表明腐蚀坑对于裂纹萌生扩展行为具有强烈的影响。基于局部应变法,提出了一种预测带有腐蚀损伤的铝合金疲劳裂纹萌生寿命的评估公式。     

小城镇建设项目环境影响评价相关问题探讨——以聊城经济开发区蒋官屯小城镇建设项目为例

在中国的城市化进程中,小城镇建设发挥了重要的作用,引起了各级政府的重视。本文以聊城经济开发区蒋官屯小城镇建设项目为例,结合小城镇建设项目的特点,就小城镇建设项目的环境影响评价中相关问题进行了探讨,主要从环境影响评价的特点、评价的主要内容、评价重点、项目建设对环境的影响分析及外环境对项目的影响分析、生态及社会环境影响分析、公众参与、项目选址合理性分析、应特别关注的环境问题等几个方面进行阐述,以期为小城镇建设项目环境影响评价提供参考。     

对黑龙江省森工林区小城镇环境规划和管理的探索

首先界定了森工林区小城镇的定义;确定林区小城镇环境规划的技术方法,其中着重介绍了水、气、固体废物的环境预测方法;同时探讨了适用于森工林区的环境规划的原则和主要内容,综合以上几个方面提出针对森工林区小城镇的环境管理,应加强环境规划的合理性与科学性、加快林区环境整体治理、建立林区环境规划管理体系、完善林区小城镇基础设施建设,张显林区特色、突出生态建设。     

大龙潭水电站扩建小机组释放生态流量

恩施大龙潭水利枢纽于1995年5月完成环境影响评价,2003年8月开工建设,2006年5月建成投入使用,2006年10月进行竣工环保验收,验收审查时专家组发现,大坝下游至清江与带水河汇入口约700 m清江江段出现脱水现象,环保主管部门提出通过技术改造使大龙潭水利枢纽直接释放生态流量至电站坝下游,通过技术经济论证,大龙潭水利枢纽工程实施在水库大坝左岸8#坝段,将一处原用于龙凤坝自来水供给的预留管道口管道上追加连接一根长107 m直径为1.4 m的管道,将大坝上游的水引至左岸导流洞,在导流洞出口处安装一台1 600 kW小机组发电将出水直接放坝下游清江,使该河段电站坝下游脱水状态得到了恢复,经济和环境效益明显。     

工业循环冷却水系统阻垢剂研究进展

本文简介了循环冷却水系统的应用现状和面临的问题．同时论述了冷却水系统结垢的成因和阻垢的机理,并介绍了阻垢剂的发展历程、研究进展及其特点。最后总结概括了未来阻垢剂的发展趋势。     

自然灾害脆弱性研究进展

自然灾害风险研究是当今国际社会、学术界普遍关注的热点问题。本文在回顾国内外自然灾害脆弱性研究发展的基础上,阐述了自然灾害脆弱性的基本内涵,通过对国内外自然灾害脆弱性研究尺度、评价模型、评估方法等方面进行对比,指出国内自然灾害脆弱性研究存在的问题。同时指出未来自然灾害脆弱性研究的发展趋势应加强对人-地耦合系统的脆弱性研究,以及对其内在形成机制和发生演变规律的研究。自然灾害脆弱性研究是涉及多学科、多领域的复杂研究课题,并且呈现出多学科交融的趋势,需要综合考虑自然和社会双重因素的影响。     

植被净初级生产力对气候变化的响应研究——以黄土高原燕沟流域为例

Vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is a sensitive indicator to characterize the response of terrestrial ecosystems to the climate change. Projections of the NPP changes of the Loess Plateau under future climate scenarios have great significances in revealing the interactions among terrestrial ecosystems and climatic systems, as well as instructing future vegetation construction of this region. Here, we carried out a case study on the Yangou watershed in the Loess Plateau. Using the vegetation-producing process model (VPP) established for such small watersheds, we simulated the NPP of the Yangou watershed under different scenarios of climate changes. The results showed that the NPP significantly increased with the precipitation increasing and evidently decreased with the temperature increasing where the climate change occurred in the whole year or in the summer half year. However, where the climate change occurred in the winter half year, the increased precipitation had little effect on the NPP, and the increased temperature significantly reduced the NPP. There were clear differences among the response sensitivities of different vegetation types with trees and shrubs were more sensitive to the changes in temperature and precipitation than crops and grasses. Currently, the most favourable climate change scenario to the NPP in the Yangou watershed was T0P15 under which the precipitation increased by 15% and the temperature did not changed, in the whole year; in the meantime, the most unfavourable climate change scenarios was T2P-15 under which the precipitation declined by 15% and the temperature increased by 2℃, in the whole year.