Improving inferences about private land conservation by accounting for incomplete reporting

Private lands provide key habitat for imperiled species and are core components of function protectected area networks; yet, their incorporation into national and regional conservation planning has been challenging. Identifying locations where private landowners are likely to participate in conservation initiatives can help avoid conflict and clarify trade-offs between ecological benefits and sociopolitical costs. Empirical, spatially explicit assessment of the factors associated with conservation on private land is an emerging tool for identifying future conservation opportunities. However, most data on private land conservation are voluntarily reported and incomplete, which complicates these assessments. We used a novel application of occupancy models to analyze the occurrence of conservation easements on private land. We compared multiple formulations of occupancy models with a logistic regression model to predict the locations of conservation easements based on a spatially explicit social–ecological systems framework. We combined a simulation experiment with a case study of easement data in Idaho and Montana (United States) to illustrate the utility of the occupancy framework for modeling conservation on private land. Occupancy models that explicitly accounted for variation in reporting produced estimates of predictors that were substantially less biased than estimates produced by logistic regression under all simulated conditions. Occupancy models produced estimates for the 6 predictors we evaluated in our case study that were larger in magnitude, but less certain than those produced by logistic regression. These results suggest that occupancy models result in qualitatively different inferences regarding the effects of predictors on conservation easement occurrence than logistic regression and highlight the importance of integrating variable and incomplete reporting of participation in empirical analysis of conservation initiatives. Failure to do so can lead to emphasizing the wrong social, institutional, and environmental factors that enable conservation and underestimating conservation opportunities in landscapes where social norms or institutional constraints inhibit reporting.     

Microtargeting for conservation

Widespread human action and behavior change is needed to achieve many conservation goals. Doing so at the requisite scale and pace will require the efficient delivery of outreach campaigns. Conservation gains will be greatest when efforts are directed toward places of high conservation value (or need) and tailored to critical actors. Recent strategic conservation planning has relied primarily on spatial assessments of biophysical attributes, largely ignoring the human dimensions. Elsewhere, marketers, political campaigns, and others use microtargeting—predictive analytics of big data—to identify people most likely to respond positively to particular messages or interventions. Conservationists have not yet widely capitalized on these techniques. To investigate the effectiveness of microtargeting to improve conservation, we developed a propensity model to predict restoration behavior among 203,645 private landowners in a 5,200,000 ha study area in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (U.S.A.). To isolate the additional value microtargeting may offer beyond geospatial prioritization, we analyzed a new high-resolution land-cover data set and cadastral data to identify private owners of riparian areas needing restoration. Subsequently, we developed and evaluated a restoration propensity model based on a database of landowners who had conducted restoration in the past and those who had not (n = 4978). Model validation in a parallel database (n = 4989) showed owners with the highest scorers for propensity to conduct restoration (i.e., top decile) were over twice as likely as average landowners to have conducted restoration (135%). These results demonstrate that microtargeting techniques can dramatically increase the efficiency and efficacy of conservation programs, above and beyond the advances offered by biophysical prioritizations alone, as well as facilitate more robust research of many social–ecological systems.     

矿工心理因素、工作压力反应和不安全行为关系研究

为研究在巨大工作压力下，矿工的心理因素与工作压力反应和不安全行为的关系，以问卷的形式调查陕西省2家具代表性煤矿的工人，分别以矿工的心理因素、工作压力反应和作业过程中的不安全行为作为外生变量、中介变量和内生变量，构建心理因素、压力反应和不安全行为的结构方程模型。通过对调研数据处理与分析，得出如下结论:本研究中的4项心理因素，性格因素、心理素质、注意力和工作态度显著影响不安全行为的发生；性格因素、心理素质和注意力对压力反应有显著影响；工作态度与煤矿工人的压力反应的关系不显著；性格因素、心理素质、注意力和工作态度通过影响矿工的压力反应，间接影响矿工的不安全行为。     

响应面法优化黄粉虫幼虫处理餐厨垃圾饲养条件的研究

研究了黄粉虫幼虫处理餐厨垃圾的方法.首先在饲养温度、饲料含水量和饲养密度等条件下进行单因素实验,然后,以利用率为指标,运用响应面法优化了黄粉虫幼虫处理餐厨垃圾的饲养条件,结果表明,最佳饲养条件为饲养温度26.7℃、饲料含水量14.5％、饲养密度4.1头/cm2.在此饲养条件下,黄粉虫对餐厨垃圾利用率理论值为38.72％,实际餐厨垃圾利用率为38.88％,相对误差为0.41％,说明利用黄粉虫幼虫处理餐厨垃圾具有较好的效果.     

2013年北京市PM2.5重污染日时空分布特征研究

根据2013年北京市环境保护监测中心监测的PM2.5数据,系统分析了北京市重污染日PM2.5污染的时空分布特征,并利用克里格插值初步统计了全年和重污染日PM2.5不同浓度区间的国土面积。2013年全市PM2.5年均浓度为89.5μg/m3,重污染日平均浓度为218μg/m3,重污染日主要集中在冬季;PM2.5年均浓度呈现明显的南高北低梯度分布特征,而重污染日空间分布较均匀,南部及城六区存在明显的高污染区,平均浓度在180μg/m3以上;2013年北京市重污染日PM2.5平均浓度为150~250μg/m3,其对应的国土面积约为12 656 km2,PM2.5平均浓度在250μg/m3以上的国土面积约为883 km2,而全年无PM2.5平均浓度在150μg/m3以上所对应的国土面积。     

乌鲁木齐市近年来大气降尘变化规律及空间分布特征

基于乌鲁木齐市多年监测的降尘数据,对乌鲁木齐市城区的降尘量进行了统计分析,得出了乌鲁木齐市近10年来降尘的总体变化规律;利用方差分析方法检验了不同季节降尘的显著性差异,发现采暖期的降尘量明显大于非采暖期;按行政区分析降尘量的分布变化,结果为不同行政区存在差别;利用秩相关系数法对其进行了趋势分析。结果表明,乌鲁木齐市的降尘呈下降趋势。利用Arc GIS9.3中的普通克里格插值方法绘制了乌鲁木齐市城市自然降尘的空间分布图。     

火灾发生率空间分异及影响因素研究

为了探究我国火灾空间聚集特征与影响因素的空间异质性，采用全局莫兰指数、局部莫兰指数、逐步回归模型、地理加权回归模型、地理探测器方法对我国地级市单元进行研究。研究结果表明:我国火灾发生率具有显著的聚集性；我国火灾发生率较低的“冷点”区域有1个，火灾发生率较高的“热点”区域有4个；人均GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入、人口密度、年平均气温4 个因素的影响效应具有空间异质性。人均GDP与火灾发生率为正相关，另外3影响因素对火灾发生率的作用表现出正负2种相关关系；2因素交互作用要比单因素作用于火灾发生率时影响力更显著，各影响因素的交互作用类型有非线性增强型和双因子增强型2种。     

Minimizing opportunity costs to aquatic connectivity restoration while controlling an invasive species

Controlling invasive species is critical for conservation but can have unintended consequences for native species and divert resources away from other efforts. This dilemma occurs on a grand scale in the North American Great Lakes, where dams and culverts block tributary access to habitat of desirable fish species and are a lynchpin of long‐standing efforts to limit ecological damage inflicted by the invasive, parasitic sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Habitat restoration and sea‐lamprey control create conflicting goals for managing aging infrastructure. We used optimization to minimize opportunity costs of habitat gains for 37 desirable migratory fishes that arose from restricting sea lamprey access (0–25% increase) when selecting barriers for removal under a limited budget (US$1–105 million). Imposing limits on sea lamprey habitat reduced gains in tributary access for desirable species by 15–50% relative to an unconstrained scenario. Additional investment to offset the effect of limiting sea‐lamprey access resulted in high opportunity costs for 30 of 37 species (e.g., an additional US$20–80 million for lake sturgeon [Acipenser fulvescens]) and often required ≥5% increase in sea‐lamprey access to identify barrier‐removal solutions adhering to the budget and limiting access. Narrowly distributed species exhibited the highest opportunity costs but benefited more at less cost when small increases in sea‐lamprey access were allowed. Our results illustrate the value of optimization in limiting opportunity costs when balancing invasion control against restoration benefits for diverse desirable species. Such trade‐off analyses are essential to the restoration of connectivity within fragmented rivers without unleashing invaders.     

A new approach to spatial source apportionment of haze pollution in large scale and its application in China

Long-lasting expansion of haze pollution in China has already presented a stern challenge to regional joint prevention and control. There is an urgent need to enlarge and reconstruct the coverage of joint prevention and control of air pollution in key area. Air quality models can identify and quantify the regional contribution of haze pollution and its key components with the help of numerical simulation, but it is difficult to be applied to larger spatial scale due to the complexity of model parameters. The time series analysis can recognize the existence of spatial interaction of haze pollution between cities, but it has not yet been used to further identify the spatial sources of haze pollution in large scale. Using econometric framework of time series analysis, this paper developed a new approach to perform spatial source apportionment. We applied this approach to calculate the contribution from spatial sources of haze pollution in China, using the monitoring data of particulate matter (PM_2.5) across 161 Chinese cities. This approach overcame the limitation of numerical simulation that the model complexity increases at excess with the expansion of sample range, and could effectively deal with severe large-scale haze episodes.     

考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型

为适时、有效地控制炼化过程系统风险,以模糊Petri网(FPN)为基础,针对炼化系统动态退化性和系统中保护层对风险转移的干预性,建立考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型。描述基于FPN的保护层作用动态机制,分析炼化系统在保护层干预下,从非正常干扰触发开始至炼化系统退化过程的风险变化趋势。最后通过正己烷缓冲罐案例分析验证模型。结果表明:正己烷缓冲罐在开始运行的30 000 h内,系统风险等级呈阶段性变化,在工作的前16 800 h,风险为Ⅰ级;第16 800~27 600 h,风险为Ⅱ级;第27 600~30 000 h,风险为Ⅲ级。