In Pacific Northwest streams, summer low flows limit water available to competing instream (salmon) and out-of-stream (human) uses, creating broad interest in how and why low flows are trending. Analyses that assumed linear (monotonic) change over the last ~60 years revealed declining low flow trends in minimally disturbed streams. Here, polynomials were used to model flow trends between 1929 and 2015. A multidecadal oscillation was observed in flows, which increased initially from the 1930s until the 1950s, declined until the 1990s, and then increased again. A similar oscillation was detected in precipitation series, and opposing oscillations in surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation series. Multidecadal oscillations with similar periods to those described here are well known in climate indices. Fitted model terms were consistent with flow trends being influenced by at least two drivers, one oscillating and the other monotonic. Anthropogenic warming is a candidate driver for the monotonic decline, and variation in (internal) climatic circulation for the oscillating trend, but others were not ruled out. The recent upturn in streamflows suggests that anthropogenic warming has not been the dominant factor driving streamflow trends, at least until 2015. Climate projections based on simulations that omit drivers of multidecadal variation are likely to underestimate the range, and rate of change, of future climatic variation. 相似文献
Introduction: While improved safety is a highly cited potential benefit of autonomous vehicles (AVs), at the same time a frequently cited concern is the new safety challenges that AVs introduce. The literature lacks a rigorous exploration of the safety perceptions of road users who will interact with AVs, including vulnerable road users. Addressing this gap is essential because the successful integration of AVs into transportation systems hinges on an understanding of how all road users will react to their presence. Methods: A stated preference survey of the Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan statistical area (Phoenix MSA) was conducted in July 2018. A series of ordered probit models was estimated to analyze the survey responses and identify differences between various population groups with respect to the perceived safety of driving, cycling, and walking near AVs. Results: Greater exposure to and awareness of AVs are not uniformly associated with increases in perceived safety. Various attitudinal factors, level of AV automation, and other intrinsic and extrinsic factors are related to safety perceptions of driving, walking, and cycling near AVs. Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, such as gender, age, income, employment, and automobile usage and ownership, have various relationships with perceived safety. Conclusions: Cycling near an AV was perceived as the least safe activity, followed by walking and then driving near an AV. Both similarities and differences were observed among the factors associated with the perceived safety of different travel alternatives. Practical Applications: Public perception will guide the development and adoption of AVs directly and indirectly. To help maintain control of public perception, transportation planners, decision makers, and other stakeholders should consider more deliberate and targeted messaging to address the concerns of different road users. In addition, more careful pilot testing and more direct attention to vulnerable road users may help avoid a backlash that could delay the rollout of this technology. 相似文献
On the basis of the method for managing the end of life of CdTe photovoltaic panels previously proposed by the authors, a new method for the recycling of all types of thin-film panels (CdTe, a-Si and CIS/CIGS) has been developed and optimised under a research project founded by Enel Foundation and CRUI Foundation. The DGP process has been developed through a feasibility study carried out from three points of view: technical, environmental and economic. The process is composed by two sub-processes matched to each other, one suitable for CdTe panels (named DGPa) and the other one for a-Si and CIS/CIGS panels (DGPb). The Double Green Panel process is based mainly on mechanical treatments with a minimum use of chemicals and it is characterised by a greater level of automation and a high flexibility in production capacity. The potential environmental impacts of various configurations of the DGP process have been extensively analysed with LCA tool in order to develop an environmentally friendly process. The economic feasibility has been assessed through the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA) method. The revenues associated to the recovery of valuable and common materials and the recycling costs have been taken into account. 相似文献
Objective: The present research relies on 2 main objectives. The first is to investigate whether latent model analysis through a structural equation model can be implemented on driving simulator data in order to define an unobserved driving performance variable. Subsequently, the second objective is to investigate and quantify the effect of several risk factors including distraction sources, driver characteristics, and road and traffic environment on the overall driving performance and not in independent driving performance measures.
Methods: For the scope of the present research, 95 participants from all age groups were asked to drive under different types of distraction (conversation with passenger, cell phone use) in urban and rural road environments with low and high traffic volume in a driving simulator experiment. Then, in the framework of the statistical analysis, a correlation table is presented investigating any of a broad class of statistical relationships between driving simulator measures and a structural equation model is developed in which overall driving performance is estimated as a latent variable based on several individual driving simulator measures.
Results: Results confirm the suitability of the structural equation model and indicate that the selection of the specific performance measures that define overall performance should be guided by a rule of representativeness between the selected variables. Moreover, results indicate that conversation with the passenger was not found to have a statistically significant effect, indicating that drivers do not change their performance while conversing with a passenger compared to undistracted driving. On the other hand, results support the hypothesis that cell phone use has a negative effect on driving performance. Furthermore, regarding driver characteristics, age, gender, and experience all have a significant effect on driving performance, indicating that driver-related characteristics play the most crucial role in overall driving performance.
Conclusions: The findings of this study allow a new approach to the investigation of driving behavior in driving simulator experiments and in general. By the successful implementation of the structural equation model, driving behavior can be assessed in terms of overall performance and not through individual performance measures, which allows an important scientific step forward from piecemeal analyses to a sound combined analysis of the interrelationship between several risk factors and overall driving performance. 相似文献