Comparison of marginal abatement cost curves for 2020 and 2030: longer perspectives for effective global GHG emission reductions

This study focuses on analyses of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, from the perspective of interrelationships among time points and countries, in order to seek effective reductions. We assessed GHG emission reduction potentials and costs in 2020 and 2030 by country and sector, using a GHG emission reduction-assessment model of high resolution regarding region and technology, and of high consistency with intertemporal, interregional, and intersectoral relationships. Global GHG emission reduction potentials relative to baseline emissions in 2020 are 8.4, 14.7, and 18.9 GtCO₂eq. at costs below 20, 50, and 100 $/tCO₂eq., corresponding to +19, −2, and −7 %, respectively, relative to 2005. The emission reduction potential for 2030 is greater than that for 2020, mainly because many energy supply and energy-intensive technologies have long lifetimes and more of the current key facilities will be extant in 2020 than in 2030. The emission reduction potentials in 2030 are 12.6, 22.0, and 26.6 GtCO₂eq. at costs below 20, 50, and 100 $/tCO₂eq., corresponding to +19, −2, and −7 %, respectively, relative to 2005. The emission reduction potential for 2030 is greater than that for 2020, mainly because many energy supply and energy-intensive technologies have long lifetimes and more of the current key facilities will be extant in 2020 than in 2030. The emission reduction potentials in 2030 are 12.6, 22.0, and 26.6 GtCO₂eq. at costs below 20, 50, and 100 /tCO₂eq., corresponding to +33, +8, and −3 %, respectively, relative to 2005. Global emission reduction potentials at a cost below 50 $/tCO₂eq. for nuclear power and carbon capture and storage are 2.3 and 2.2 GtCO₂eq., respectively, relative to baseline emissions in 2030. Longer-term perspectives on GHG emission reductions toward 2030 will yield more cost-effective reduction scenarios for 2020 as well.     

CIELAB color variables as indicators of compost stability

The composting process of different organic wastes both in laboratory and on a large-scale was characterized using CIELAB color variables to evaluate compost stability for the better application in agriculture. The time courses of the CIELAB variables of composting materials were determined directly from the bottom of a glass petri dish filled with dried and ground samples using a Minolta Color Reader (CR-13) calibrated with clean empty petri dishes placed on a white tile. To compare the proposed method with conventional methods, the same materials were also evaluated using commonly used compost stability evaluation indices. Most of the CIELAB variables of a compost made from a mixture of green tea waste and rice bran reached a plateau after 84 days of composting and showed strong relationships with the commonly used compost stability evaluation indices. The time needed for CIELAB variables, especially the L*and b* values, to stabilize at large-scale composting plants of cattle litter, farmyard manure, kitchen garbage and bark compost, were more or less similar to the times of maturation evaluated by the respective compost producers. The CIELAB color variable offers a new, simple, rapid and inexpensive means of evaluating compost stability and its quality prior to agricultural use.     

Consistent assessments of pathways toward sustainable development and climate stabilization

Many of the numerous difficult issues facing the world today involve relationships entailing trade‐offs and synergies. This study quantitatively assesses some alternative scenarios using integrated assessment models, and provides several indicators relating to sustainable development and climate change, such as indicators of income (per capita GDP), poverty, water stress, food access, sustainable energy use, energy security, and ocean acidification, with high consistencies among the indicators within a scenario. According to the analyses, economic growth helps improve many of the indicators for sustainable development. On the other hand, climate change will induce some severe impacts such as ocean acidification under a non‐climate intervention scenario (baseline scenario). Deep emission reductions, such as to 2°C above the pre‐industrial level, could cause some sustainable development indicators to worsen. There are complex trade‐offs between climate change mitigation levels and several sustainable development indicators. A delicately balanced approach to economic growth will be necessary for sustainable development and responses to climate change.     

Light acclimation states of phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean, determined using photosynthetic pigment distribution

In high-latitude waters such as the Southern Ocean, the primary production of phytoplankton supports the ecosystem. To understand the photo-acclimation strategy of such phytoplankton within cold environments, the vertical distribution profile of photosynthetic pigments was analyzed in the Southern Ocean. Samples were taken along 110°E during the austral summer, and along 150°E and around the edge of the seasonal sea ice of the Antarctic Continent during the austral autumn. Pigment extraction methods were optimized for these samples. The standing crop of chlorophyll a was larger in the region along the edge of the seasonal sea ice than at sampling stations in open ocean areas. Chlorophyll concentration seemed to be dependent on the formation of thermo- and haloclines along the edge of the seasonal sea ice, but not in the open ocean where such clines are less pronounced. The marker pigments fucoxanthin and/or 19′-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin were dominant at most sampling stations throughout the water column, while other marker pigments such as alloxanthin were quite low. This indicated that diatoms and/or haptophytes were the major phytoplankton in this area. Comparison of the relative ratio of fucoxanthin with that of 19′-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin allowed some stations to be characterized as either diatom-dominant or haptophyte-dominant. The relative ratio of xanthophyll-cycle pigments (diadinoxanthin plus diatoxanthin) to chlorophyll a was high in surface waters and decreased gradually with depth. This suggests that near the ice edge during summer in the Southern Ocean, both diatoms and haptophytes acclimate to their light environments to protect their photosystems under high-light conditions.     

Spectacular Batesian mimicry in ants

The mechanism by which palatable species take advantage of their similarity in appearance to those that are unpalatable, in order to avoid predation, is called Batesian mimicry. Several arthropods are thought to be Batesian mimics of social insects; however, social insects that are Batesian mimics among themselves are rare. In Malaysia we found a possible Batesian mimic in an arboreal ant species, Camponotus sp., which was exclusively observed on foraging trails of the myrmicine ant Crematogaster inflata. The bright yellow and black colouring pattern, as well as the walking behaviour, were very similar in both species. We observed general interactions between the two species, and tested their palatability and the significance of the remarkably similar visual colour patterns for predator avoidance. Prey offered to C. inflata was also eaten by Camponotus workers in spite of their being attacked by C. inflata, indicating that Camponotus sp. is a commensal of C. inflata. An experiment with chicks as potential predators suggests that Camponotus sp. is palatable whereas C. inflata is unpalatable. After tasting C. inflata, the chicks no longer attacked Camponotus sp., indicating that Camponotus sp. is a Batesian mimic of Crematogaster inflata.     

Sumo wrestling in ants: major workers fight over male production in<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Acanthomyrmex ferox</Emphasis>

In the myrmicine ant Acanthomyrmex ferox, major workers have the same number of ovarioles as queens, thrice that of minor workers, making them well suited for egg-laying. In the queen's presence, infrequent aggression allows ranking of majors but they lay only unviable trophic eggs. Major workers engage each other, but not the minors, in antennal boxing and spectacular shaking contests, a novel interaction in ants. The absence of reversals allows a clear ranking of major workers. After queen removal, aggression becomes very frequent, but previous ranking is maintained. All majors start laying reproductive eggs although they show a skew in ovary development according to ranking. The dominant major, however, actively patrols the egg-pile and cannibalises eggs laid by subordinates.     

Thelytokous parthenogenesis by queens in the dacetine ant Pyramica membranifera (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Thelytokous parthenogenesis in which diploid females are produced from unfertilized eggs, was recently reported for some ant species. Here, we document thelytokous reproduction by queens in the polygynous species Pyramica membranifera. Queens that emerged in the laboratory were kept with or without workers under laboratory conditions. Independent colony founding was successful for a few queens if prey was provided. All artificial colonies, which started with a newly emerged queen and workers produced new workers and some of the colonies also produced female sexuals. Some of the female sexuals shed their wings in the laboratory and started formation of new polygynous colonies. Workers had no ovaries and thus, were obligatorily sterile.     

A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO₂ emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO₂ emission pathways.     

GHG emission pathways until 2300 for the 1.5 °C temperature rise target and the mitigation costs achieving the pathways

The Paris Agreement of the 21st Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change refers to the 1.5 °C target as well as the 2 °C target, and it is important to estimate the emission pathways and mitigation measures for the 1.5 °C target for the discussions on the target. The possible emission pathways vary widely because of the uncertainties involved. We assumed three kinds of temperature trajectories for meeting below 1.5 °C compared with the pre-industrial level, and three numbers for the climate sensitivity. The first trajectory remains below 1.5 °C all the time until 2300, the second overshoots but returns to below 1.5 °C by 2100, and the third overshoots but returns to below 1.5 °C by 2300. There are large differences in terms of 2030 emissions between the estimate from the submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and any of assessed emission pathways involving climate sensitivity of 3.0 °C or higher, and high emission reduction costs were estimated, even for 2030. With climate sensitivity of 2.5 °C, only the third trajectory exhibits consistent emissions in 2030 with the NDCs. However, this case also appears very difficult to achieve, requiring enormous amounts of negative emissions after the middle of this century toward 2300. A climate mitigation strategy aiming for the 1.5 °C target will be debatable, because we face serious difficulties in near- or/and long-term for all the possible emission pathways, and therefore, we should rather focus on actual emission reduction activities than on the 1.5 °C target with poor feasibility.     

Comparative study of microbial dechlorination of chlorinated ethenes in an aquifer and a clayey aquitard

In order to determine whether natural attenuation of chlorinated ethenes by microbial activity occurs in aquitards, sediments at a site contaminated with tetrachloroethene were vertically studied by drilling. The distribution of microbes (Dehalococcoides group and anaerobic hydrogen producers) and the ability of the sediments to sustain microbial dechlorination were determined in an aquitard as well as in an aquifer. Close-spaced sampling revealed the existence of large populations of Dehalococcoides and H(2)-producing bacteria, especially in the organic-rich clayey aquitard rather than in the aquifer. The vinyl chloride reductase gene was also detected in the clay layer. Furthermore, incubation experiments indicated that the clay sediment could sustain transformations of tetrachloroethene at least to vinyl chloride. In contrast, no significant transformation was observed in the aquifer sand. Our results indicate that dechlorination of tetrachloroethene by bacteria can take place in an organic-rich clayey aquitard, and that organic-rich clay may also be important in the natural attenuation in an adjacent aquifer, possibly supplying a carbon source or an electron donor.