WORLD PETROLEUM RESOURCE ESTIMATES AND PRODUCTION FORECASTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY

Resource estimates alone will not give advance warning of encroaching production difficulties. An analysis of the general stages in the evolution of petroleum production and discovery and of industry statistics provides an estimate of when the stage characterised by increasing production in the market economy countries outside the United States and Canada will end. The analysis indicates that the year of maximum production will be in the 1990s. Economic growth aggravates the difficulties accompanying the production decline by advancing the date of peak production and by increasing the adjustments that must be made as oil production declines. Des prévisions de ressources à elles seules ne constituent pas des signes précurseurs de difficultés croissantes de production. Une analyse des étapes générales marquant l'evolution de la découverte et de la production du pétrole ainsi que des statistiques industrielles nous permet de prévoir l'époque à laquelle prendra fin la phase de production accrue dans les pays à économie de marché en dehors des Etats-Unis et du Canada. Cette analyse révèle que l'année de production maximale se situera dans les années 90. La croissance économique accentue les difficultés qui accompagnent le déclin de la production de pétrole en avancant la date à laquelle cell-ci atteindra son plafond et en augmentant le nombre d'ajustements qui s'avèrent nécessaires au fur et à mesure qu'elle baisse. Las evaluaciones de recursos no dan por si solas un aviso anticipado de las dificultades de producción. Un análisis de las etapas principales en la evolución del descubrimiento y producción de petróleo y de las estadísticas industriales provee un estimado de cuando va a terminar la etapa caracterizada por un crecimiento de producción en los paises de economias de mercado otros que Estados Unidos y Canada. El análisis indica que el año de producción máxima se hallará en la década del 90. El crecimiento económico agrava las dificultades debidas a la declinación de la producción al adelantar la fecha de máxima producción (pico) y al aumentar los ajustes que deven hacerse cuando la producción de petróleos disminuye.     

In vitro toxicity of selected fungicides from the groups of benzimidazoles and demethylation inhibitors to Cladobotryum dendroides and Agaricus bisporus

Twenty microfungal isolates were collected from diseased fruiting bodies of Agaricus bisporus sampled from Serbian mushroom farms during 2003–2007. Based on morphological characteristics and pathogenicity tests, the isolates were identified as Cladobotryum dendroides. The isolates of C. dendroides and A. bisporusF56 and U3 were tested for sensitivity to several selected fungicides in vitro. C. dendroides isolates were found to be more sensitive to prochloraz manganese and flusilazole + carbendazim than to the other fungicides tested (EC₅₀ values were 0.09 and 0.11 mg L^{? 1}, respectively) and weakly resistant to thiophanate-methyl (EC₅₀ values ranged between 6.53 and 12.09 mg L^{? 1}). Selectivity indexes of the tested fungicides on both C. dendroidesand A. bisporusindicated that thiophanate-methyl, cyproconazole + carbendazim and flusilazole + carbendazim had much less selective fungitoxicity than benomyl, carbendazim and prochloraz manganese.     

Proposal for selective differentiating of nerve agent G and V type with utilisation of modified Ellman’s method

We studied issues of organophosphorus agents’ analysis. Immobilised enzyme–inhibitors complexes (e.g. acetylcholinesterase-organophosphate nerve agent) were studied with modified Ellman’s biochemical method utilised for assessment of acetylcholinesterase activity. Biochemical reactions are widespread and they are the most frequent used analytical methods for determination of nerve agents. This modified method is based on the nucleophilic reactions of mono- and bispyridinium aldoximes of a type 2-PAM, MMB-4 and HI-6, their homologues and isomers with enzyme–inhibitor complexes. The procedure for a gradual analysis of G and V type, Sarin, Cyclohexylsarin, Soman, Tabun, agent VX and R-33 was proposed in terms of studied nucleophilic substitution reactions quantification results. This method enables selective determination of these chemical warfare agents. A gradual analysis was evaluated by statistic method of probabilistic calculus. This type of analysis can be used for assessment of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in very low concentrations close to hygienic limits.     

Toxicity of metalaxyl, azoxystrobin, dimethomorph, cymoxanil, zoxamide and mancozeb to Phytophthora infestans isolates from Serbia

A study of the in vitro sensitivity of 12 isolates of Phytophthora infestans to metalaxyl, azoxystrobin, dimethomorph, cymoxanil, zoxamide and mancozeb, was conducted. The isolates derived from infected potato leaves collected at eight different localities in Serbia during 2005-2007. The widest range of EC(50) values for mycelial growth of the isolates was recorded for metalaxyl. They varied from 0.3 to 3.9 μg mL(-1) and were higher than those expected in a susceptible population of P. infestans. The EC(50) values of the isolates were 0.16-0.30 μg mL(-1) for dimethomorph, 0.27-0.57 μg mL(-1) for cymoxanil, 0.0026-0.0049 μg mL(-1) for zoxamide and 2.9-5.0 μg mL(-1) for mancozeb. The results indicated that according to effective concentration (EC(50)) the 12 isolates of P. infestans were sensitive to azoxystrobin (0.019-0.074 μg mL(-1)), and intermediate resistant to metalaxyl, dimethomorph and cymoxanil. According to resistance factor, all P. infestans isolates were sensitive to dimethomorph, cymoxanil, mancozeb and zoxamide, 58.3% of isolates were sensitive to azoxystrobin and 50% to metalaxyl. Gout's scale indicated that 41.7% isolates were moderately sensitive to azoxystrobin and 50% to metalaxyl.     

Fungicide sensitivity of Trichoderma spp. from Agaricus bisporus farms in Serbia

Trichoderma species, the causal agents of green mould disease, induce great losses in Agaricus bisporus farms. Fungicides are widely used to control mushroom diseases although green mould control is encumbered with difficulties. The aims of this study were, therefore, to research in vitro toxicity of several commercial fungicides to Trichoderma isolates originating from Serbian and Bosnia-Herzegovina farms, and to evaluate the effects of pH and light on their growth. The majority of isolates demonstrated optimal growth at pH 5.0, and the rest at pH 6.0. A few isolates also grew well at pH 7. The weakest mycelial growth was noted at pH 8.0–9.0. Generally, light had an inhibitory effect on the growth of tested isolates. The isolates showed the highest susceptibility to chlorothalonil and carbendazim (ED₅₀ less than 1 mg L^?1), and were less sensitive to iprodione (ED₅₀ ranged 0.84–6.72 mg L^?1), weakly resistant to thiophanate-methyl (ED₅₀ = 3.75–24.13 mg L^?1), and resistant to trifloxystrobin (ED₅₀ = 10.25–178.23 mg L^?1). Considering the toxicity of fungicides to A. bisporus, carbendazim showed the best selective toxicity (0.02), iprodione and chlorothalonil moderate (0.16), and thiophanate-methyl the lowest (1.24), while trifloxystrobin toxicity to A. bisporus was not tested because of its inefficiency against Trichoderma isolates.     

Assessment of spatial variation of cesium-137 in small catchments

Surface contamination by bomb-derived and Chernobyl-derived 137Cs has been subject to changes due to physical decay and lateral transport of contaminated soil particles, which have resulted in an on-going transfer of radionuclides from terrestrial ecosystems to surface water, river bed sediments, and flood plains. Knowledge of the different sources of spatial variation of 137Cs is particularly essential for estimating 137Cs transfer to fluvial systems and for successfully applying 137Cs as an environmental tracer in soil erosion studies. This study combined a straightforward sediment redistribution model and geostatistical interpolation of point samples of 137Cs activities in soil to distinguish the effects of sediment erosion and deposition from other sources of variation in 137Cs in the small Mochovce catchment in Slovakia. These other sources of variation could then be interpreted. Besides erosion and deposition processes, the initial pattern of 137Cs deposition, floodplain sedimentation, and short-range spatial variation were identified as the major sources of spatial variation of the 137Cs inventory.     

Modelling Change in Ground Vegetation Response to Acid and Nitrogen Pollution, Climate Change and Forest Management at in Sweden 1500–2100 a.d.

The ForSAFE model, designed for modelling biogeochemical cycles (water, acidity, base cation, nitrogen and carbon) in terrestrial ecosystems, was modified with a vegetation response module (VEG), incorporating the effects of: nitrogen pollution, acidification, soil moisture, temperature, wind chill exposure, light and shading by trees, grazing by animals, competition between plants, above ground for light and below ground for water and nutrients. The model calculates the response of number ground vegetation plant groups. The integrated model was tested and validated at integrated level II forest monitoring sites across Sweden, four have been shown here, and used to assess the effect of acidification and nitrogen pollution in relation to factors such as climate change, forest management and changing grazing pressure. The response functions have been derived from single-factor experiments and integrated through the model structure for use on whole systems. The tests with the model suggest that the ground vegetation composition is reasonably well predicted, that much research remains before the model is fully tested and operational, and that the model may serve as a tool for assessing impacts of climate change, acid rain and forest management on plant biodiversity in forested areas.