Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

Role of the floodplain lakes in the methylmercury distribution and exchanges with the Amazon River, Brazil

Seasonal variability of dissolved and particulate methylmercury(F-MeHg, P-MeHg) concentrations was studied in the waters of the Amazon River and its associated Curuai floodplain during hydrological year 2005–2006, to understand the MeHg exchanges between these aquatic systems. In the oxic white water lakes, with neutral pH, high F-MeHg and P-MeHg concentrations were measured during the rising water stage(0.70 ± 0.37 pmol/L, n = 26) and flood peak(14.19 ± 9.32 pmol/g, n = 7) respectively, when the Amazon River water discharge into the lakes was at its maximum. The lowest mean values were reported during the dry season(0.18 ± 0.07 pmol/L F-MeHg, n = 10 and 1.35 ± 1.24 pmol/g P-MeHg, n = 8), when water and suspended sediments were outflowing from the lakes into the River. In these lakes,the MeHg concentrations were associated to the aluminium and organic carbon/nitrogen changes. In the black water lakes, with acidic pH and reducing conditions, elevated MeHg concentrations were recorded(0.58 ± 0.32 pmol/L F-MeHg, n = 16 and 19.82 ± 15.13 pmol/g PMeHg, n = 6), and correlated with the organic carbon and manganese concentrations. Elevated values of MeHg partition coefficient(4.87 Kd 5.08 log(L/kg) indicate that MeHg is mainly transported associated with the particulate phase. The P-MeHg enrichment detected in all lakes suggests autochthonous MeHg inputs from the sediments into the water column. The MeHg mass balance showed that the Curuai floodplain is not the source of P-MeHg for the Amazon River.     

Determination of biomass burning emission factors: Methods and results

Biomass burning, in a broad sense, encompasses different burning practices, including open and confined burnings, and different types of vegetation. Emission factors of gaseous or particulate trace compounds are directly dependent both on the fuel type and the combustion process. Emission factors are generally calculated by stoichiometric considerations using the carbon mass balance method, applied either to combustion chamber experiments or to field experiments based on ground-level measurements or aircraft sampling in smoke plumes. There have been a number of experimental studies in the last 10 years to investigate wildfires in tropical, temperate, or boreal regions. This article presents an overview of measurement methods and experimental data on emission factors of reactive or radiatively active trace compounds, including trace gases and particles. It focuses on fires in tropical regions, that is, forest and savanna fires, agricultural burns, charcoal production, use of fuelwood, and charcoal combustion.     

Prenatal diagnosis of congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency by steroid analysis in the amniotic fluid of mid-pregnancy: Comparison with HLA typing in 17 pregnancies at risk for CAH

Amniotic fluid (AF) levels of 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17OHP) and testosterone (T) were determined at 16–17 weeks in 17 pregnancies at risk for CAH and results compared to 75 normal controls. The fetus was predicted to be unaffected in 12 cases on the findings of normal AF levels of both 17OHP and T and the latter allowed a correct prediction of fetal sex in all instances. HLA typing confirmed normality in 12 cases revealing 5 carriers, 5 homozygous normal and 2 indeterminate. Steroid levels of the 2 groups were similar. Three fetuses were predicted to be CAH affected on unambiguously high levels of 17OHP and T (in female only). HLA typing was in agreement, and the diagnosis was confirmed in 2 abortuses and a female newborn by physical and hormonal studies. In the last 2 cases AF levels of OHP and T were normal but HLA (A/B/C) genotypes were identical to the CAH affected siblings. Normal physical and hormonal findings in the 2 aborted fetuses would exclude the possibility of an in utero virilizing form of CAH. The discrepancy could be explained on the basis that the fetuses had an allelic form of 21-hydroxylase deficiency or on the basis of recombination (not fully tested). It is concluded that a fully informative prenatal diagnosis of CAH should not rely entirely on HLA typing but on hormonal studies.     

Expertise,safety, reliability,and decision making: practical industrial experience

This paper presents our practical experience of expert opinion deduced from concrete field applications, concerning mainly safety and reliability modeling. First, expertise is defined and the approach used for eliciting expertise is shortly described. Quality and value of information from experts are important challenges for decision making from risk analysis. Expertise is very useful for supplying data when not enough field observations are available for estimating parameter uncertainties and quantifying risk analysis models, which are inputs to a decision-making process. Applications presented herein concern mainly the role of expert judgment in reliability.     

Foraging habitats of the seabird community of Europa Island (Mozambique Channel)

We investigated the foraging habitats of the winter breeding community of tropical seabirds from Europa Island (Mozambique Channel) in September 2003. We focused our study on the dominant species of this austral community, the sooty tern (Sterna fuscata), the red-footed booby (Sula sula), and the frigatebirds, including the great (Fregata minor) and the lesser frigatebirds (F. ariel). We considered the at-sea distribution and abundance of these species in relation to chlorophyll concentration, sea-surface temperatures, sea-surface height anomalies, depth of the thermocline, distance to the colony, and presence of surface marine predators, flying fishes and other seabirds. Although the marine environment where seabirds foraged was oligotrophic, it presents the best feeding opportunities for seabirds for the area in winter. Our study demonstrates that the winter-breeding seabird species of Europa Island tend to forage in productive waters in association with other marine predators when possible. Sooty terns and frigatebirds were widely distributed in the whole study area, whereas red-footed boobies were not found farther than 160 km from their colonies and were associated with relatively productive waters. Sooty terns and red-footed boobies were aggregated where flying fishes were abundant. The presence of other marine predators was associated with larger multispecies feeding flocks than when no association occurred. Sooty terns, which are numerically dominant at Europa and adopted network foraging, seem to be catalysts of feeding events, and represented a good target for the other foraging species, especially frigatebirds. However, when possible, frigatebirds favour association with flocks of red-footed boobies.Communicated by S.A. Poulet, Roscoff     

Development of an SPME-GC-MS/MS method for the determination of pesticides in rainwater: laboratory and field experiments

A solid-phase microextraction -- coupled to a gas chromatography -- ion trap tandem mass spectrometry (SPME-GC-MS/MS) method was developed for the quantitative determination in rainwater of 8 pesticides amongst the most used in France and 3 triazines metabolites. The main factors affecting the SPME process were studied. Using a 3 mL sample, the method developed showed good linearity for concentrations ranging from 0.05 to 50 microgL(-1) with correlation coefficients between 0.997 and 0.9999 and relative standard deviations (% RSD) below 14%. The study of matrix effects showed that rainwater was too diluted to have any significant influence on the extraction efficiency. To validate the method, a field campaign was carried out on the rain events, which occurred in Strasbourg during a one-year period. The rain concentrations showed patterns of high pesticide concentrations during spring months, which were correlated to the spraying periods of most of these substances.     

Age,experience and reproductive performance in a long-lived bird: a hormonal perspective

The ultimate factors influencing age-specific reproductive performance in birds have been widely discussed, and several hypotheses have been suggested to explain why young/inexperienced breeders have lower reproductive success than older individuals. In comparison, proximate factors and, particularly, hormonal mechanisms influencing age-related reproductive performance have received lesser attention. In this paper, we examined how baseline levels of corticosterone and prolactin, two hormones involved in reproduction, changed with age and experience in a long-lived bird, the Black-browed albatross (Thallasarche melanophris) during the brooding stage. Corticosterone levels were not linked to age, whereas prolactin levels increased until individuals reached 15 years of age. First-time breeders had higher corticosterone levels and lower prolactin levels than experienced ones. Corticosterone levels were not correlated with breeding experience among experienced birds, whereas prolactin levels slightly increased with advancing experience. Among experienced breeders, there was no effect of individual quality on corticosterone and prolactin levels. Baseline corticosterone and prolactin levels were respectively, positively and negatively correlated to time spent fasting/brooding on the nest. Moreover, the probability of successfully fledging a chick was negatively related to corticosterone levels, but not to prolactin levels. Elevated corticosterone levels in first time breeders may serve as evidence for depleted body reserves resulting from lower foraging/brooding capabilities and therefore support the constraint hypothesis. Low prolactin levels in young/inexperienced birds may be interpreted either as evidence for their lower breeding capacities (constraint hypothesis) or for their limited breeding investment (restraint hypothesis). Finally, we report, for the first time, the hormonal changes associated with the onset of senescence. The very old and most experienced birds, which had the lowest probability of successfully fledging a young, displayed elevated corticosterone levels and low prolactin levels, possibly indicating a degradation of breeding skills and/or a disruption of the endocrine system in senescent birds.