Impact of climate change on vulnerability of forests and ecosystem service supply in Western Rhodopes Mountains

The vulnerability of forest ecosystem services to climate change is expected to depend on landscape characteristic and management history, but may also be influenced by the proximity to the southern range limit of constituent tree species. In the Western Rhodopes in South Bulgaria, Norway spruce is an important commercial species, but is approaching its current southern limit. Using climate sensitive forest models, we projected the impact of climate change on timber production, carbon storage, biodiversity and soil retention in two representative landscapes in the Western Rhodopes; a lower elevation landscape (1000–1450 m a.s.l) dominated by mixed species forests, and a higher elevation landscape (1550–2100 m a.s.l.) currently dominated by spruce. In both landscapes climate change is projected to induce a shift in forest composition, with drought-sensitive species, such as Norway spruce, being replaced by more drought-tolerant species such as Scots pine and black pine at lower elevations. In the higher elevation landscape a reduction in spruce growth is projected, particularly under the more severe climate change scenarios. Under most climate scenarios a reduction in growing stock is projected to occur, but under some scenarios a moderate increase in higher elevation stands (>1500 m a.s.l.) is expected. Climate change is projected to negatively influence carbon storage potential across landscapes with the magnitude depending on the severity of the climate change scenario. The impact of climate change on forest diversity and habitat availability is projected to differ considerably between the two landscapes, with diversity and habitat quality generally increasing at higher elevations, and being reduced at lower elevations. Our results suggest that if currently management practices are maintained the sensitivity of forests and forest ecosystem services in the Western Rhodopes to climate change will differ between low and higher elevation sites and will depend strongly on current forest composition.     

Coupling a 3D patch model and a rockfall module to assess rockfall protection in mountain forests

Many forests in the Alps are acknowledged for protecting objects, such as (rail) roads, against rockfall. However, there is a lack of knowledge on efficient silvicultural strategies and interventions to maintain these forests at optimal protection level. Therefore, assessment tools are required that quantify the rockfall protection effect of forest stands over time, and thereby provide the ability to evaluate the necessity and effect of management interventions. This paper introduces such a tool that consists of a 3D rockfall module embedded in the patch based forest simulator PICUS. The latter is extended for this study with a new regeneration module. In a series of experiments the new combined simulation tool is evaluated with regard to parameter sensitivity, model intercomparison experiments with recently proposed algorithms from the literature, and the ability to respond realistically to different management regimes in rockfall protection forests. Results confirm the potential of the new tool for realistic simulation of rockfall activity in heterogeneous mountain forests, but point at the urgent need to improve the knowledge base on the interaction of understory and rockfall activity. Further work will focus on model validation against empirical rockfall data, and include reduced tree vitality due to damage from boulder collisions as well as the explicit consideration of downed dead wood.     

Impacts of business-as-usual management on ecosystem services in European mountain ranges under climate change

Mountain forests provide a multitude of services beyond timber production. In a large European project (ARANGE—Advanced multifunctional forest management in European mountain RANGEs), the impacts of climate change and forest management on ecosystem services (ES) were assessed. Here, we provide background information about the concept that was underlying the ARANGE project, and its main objectives, research questions, and methodological approaches are presented. The project focused on synergies and trade-offs among four key ES that are relevant in European mountain ranges: timber production, carbon storage, biodiversity conservation, and protection from gravitational natural hazards. We introduce the concept and selection of case study areas (CSAs) that were used in the project; we describe the concept of representative stand types that were developed to provide a harmonized representation of forest stands and forest management in the CSAs; we explain and discuss the climate data and climate change scenarios that were applied across the seven CSAs; and we introduce the linker functions that were developed to relate stand- and landscape-scale forest features from model simulations to ES provisioning in mountain forests. Finally, we provide a brief overview of the Special Feature, with an attempt to synthesize emerging response patterns across the CSAs.     

Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to upscale stand level damages by bark beetles as simulated in the hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.41. Comparing EFISCEN simulations including the new bark beetle disturbance module against a 15-year damage time series for Austria showed good agreement at province level (R2 between 0.496 and 0.802). A scenario analysis of climate change impacts on bark beetle-induced damages in Austria’s Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] forests resulted in a strong increase in damages (from 1.33 Mm3 a⁻¹, period 1990–2004, to 4.46 Mm3 a⁻¹, period 2095–2099). Studying two adaptive management strategies (species change) revealed a considerable time-lag between the start of adaptation measures and a decrease in simulated damages by bark beetles.     

Can current management maintain forest landscape multifunctionality in the Eastern Alps in Austria under climate change?

In Central Europe, management of forests for multiple ecosystem services (ES) has a long tradition and is currently drawing much attention due to increasing interest in non-timber services. In face of a changing climate and diverse ES portfolios, a key issue for forest managers is to assess vulnerability of ES provisioning. In a case study catchment of 250 ha in the Eastern Alps, the currently practiced uneven-aged management regime (BAU; business as usual) which is based on irregularly shaped patch cuts along skyline corridors was analysed under historic climate (represented by the period 1961–1990) and five transient climate change scenarios (period 2010–2110) and compared to an unmanaged scenario (NOM). The study addressed (1) the future provisioning of timber, carbon sequestration, protection against gravitational hazards, and nature conservation values under BAU management, (2) the effect of spatial scale (1, 5, 10 ha grain size) in mapping ES indicators and (3) how the spatial scale of ES assessment affects the simultaneous provision of several ES (i.e. multifunctionality). The analysis employed the PICUS forest simulation model in combination with novel landscape assessment tools. In BAU management, timber harvests were smaller than periodic increments. The resulting increase in standing stock benefitted carbon sequestration. In four out of five climate change scenarios, volume increment was increasing. With the exception of the mildest climate change scenario (+2.6 °C, no change in precipitation), all other analysed climate change scenarios reduced standing tree volume, carbon pools and number of large old trees, and increased standing deadwood volume due to an intensifying bark beetle disturbance regime. However, increases in deadwood and patchy canopy openings benefitted bird habitat quality. Under historic climate, the NOM regime showed better performance in all non-timber ES. Under climate change conditions, the damages from bark beetle disturbances increased more in NOM compared with BAU. Despite favourable temperature conditions in climate change scenarios, the share of admixed broadleaved species was not increasing in BAU management, mainly due to the heavy browsing pressure by ungulates. In NOM, it even decreased and mean tree age increased. Thus, in the long run NOM may enter a phase of lower resilience compared with BAU. Most ES indicators were fairly insensitive to the spatial scale of indicator mapping. ES indicators that were based on sparse tree and stand attributes such as rare admixed tree species, large snags and live trees achieved better results when mapped at larger scales. The share of landscape area with simultaneous provisioning of ES at reasonable performance levels (i.e. multifunctionality) decreased with increasing number of considered ES, while it increased with increasing spatial scale of the assessment. In the case study, landscape between 53 and 100 % was classified as multifunctional, depending on number and combinations of ES.     

Ecosystem service provision,management systems and climate change in Valsaín forest,central Spain

This study addresses the impact of climate change and management approach on the provision of four ecosystem services (ES) (timber production, protection against gravitational hazards, carbon sequestration and biodiversity) in Valsaín forest in central Spain. The hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.6 was used to simulate the development of 24 representative stand types over 100 years (2010–2110) in a full factorial simulation experiment combining three management regimes [“business as usual” management (BAU) and two alternatives to BAU (AM1 and AM2)], a no-management scenario (NOM) and six climate scenarios (historic climate represented by the period 1961–1990 and five transient climate change scenarios). Simulations indicated relatively small differences as regards the impact of the different management alternatives (BAU, AM1 and AM2) on the provision of ES as well as a clear improvement in biodiversity, protection and carbon storage under the no-management regime (NOM). Although timber production indicators were the most sensitive to climate change scenarios, biodiversity-related indicators responded fastest to the management regimes applied. Indicators of protection against rockfall and landslides were affected by both management and climate change. The results indicate substantial vulnerability of ES provisioning under the more extreme climate change scenarios at low elevations (1250 m). At higher elevations, the productivity of Scots pine stands may show a moderate decrease or increase, depending on the climate change scenario.     

Nitrogen dynamics of a mountain forest on dolomitic limestone--a scenario-based risk assessment

The dominant nitrogen (N) fluxes were simulated in a mountain forest ecosystem on dolomitic bedrock in the Austrian Alps. Based on an existing small-scale climate model the simulation encompassed the present situation and a 50-yr projection. The investigated scenarios were current climate, current N deposition (SC1) and future climate (+2.5 degrees C and +10% annual precipitation) with three levels of N deposition (SC2, 3, 4). The microbially mediated N transformation, including the emission of nitrogen oxides, was calculated with PnET-N-DNDC. Soil hydrology was calculated with HYDRUS and was used to estimate the leaching of nitrate. The expected change of the forest ecosystem due to changes of the climate and the N availability was simulated with PICUS. The incentive for the project was the fact that forests on dolomitic limestone stock on shallow Rendzic Leptosols that are rich in soil organic matter are considered highly sensitive to the expected environmental changes. The simulation results showed a strong effect due to increased temperatures and to elevated levels of N deposition. The outflux of N, both as nitrate (6-25kg Nha(-1)yr(-1)) and nitrogen oxides (1-2kg Nha(-1)yr(-1)), from the forest ecosystem are expected to increase. Temperature exerts a stronger effect on the N(2)O emission than the increased rate of N deposition. The main part of the N emission will occur as N(2) (15kg Nha(-1)yr(-1)). The total N loss is partially offset by increased rates of N uptake in the biomass due to an increase in forest productivity.     

Potentials and limitations of using large-scale forest inventory data for evaluating forest succession models

Forest gap models have been applied widely to examine forest development under natural conditions and to investigate the effect of climate change on forest succession. Due to the complexity and parameter requirements of such models a rigorous evaluation is required to build confidence in the simulation results. However, appropriate data for model assessment are scarce at the large spatial and temporal scales of successional dynamics. In this study, we explore a data source for the evaluation of forest gap models that has been used only little in the past, i.e., large-scale National Forest Inventory data. The key objectives of this study were (a) to examine the potentials and limitations of using large-scale forest inventory data for evaluating the performance of forest gap models and (b) to test two particular models as case studies to derive recommendations for their future improvement.