An experimental investigation of explanations for inconsistencies in responses to second offers in double referenda

This paper demonstrates the potential for induced preference experiments to test previously unverified explanations of observed behavior in contingent valuation surveys. The NOAA Panel on Contingent Valuation called for experimental evidence on potential biases in the double referendum format. We test Carson, Groves, and Machina's (Incentives and informational properties of preference questions, Plenary address to the European Association of Resource and Environmental Economists, Oslo, Norway, June 1999) simple cost uncertainty and weighted averaging explanations of inconsistent responses to follow-up offers in such double referenda against a baseline of certainty and truthful preference revelation. The results find evidence to support the Weighted Average hypothesis. Results regarding the cost uncertainty hypothesis are more ambiguous and merit further investigation.     

The effect of filter material on bioaerosol collection of Bacillus subtilis spores used as a Bacillus anthracis simulant

The objective of this study was to determine filter materials and extraction methods that are appropriate to use for environmental sampling of B. anthracis. Four types of filters were tested: mixed cellulose ester (MCE) with a pore size of 3 microm, polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) with pore sizes of 1 and 3 microm, and gelatin with a pore size of 3 microm. Bacillus subtilis var. niger endospores (also known as Bacillus globigii[BG]) were used as a surrogate for B. anthracis. Endospores were collected into Button Inhalable Aerosol Samplers with sampling times of 15 minutes, 1 hour, and 4 hours. Physical collection efficiency was determined by measuring upstream and downstream B. subtilis concentrations with an optical particle counter. Vortexing with ultrasonic agitation and vortexing with shaker agitation extraction methods were evaluated. The MCE, 1 microm PTFE, and gelatin filters provided physical collection efficiencies of 94% or greater. The 3 microm PTFE filter showed inconsistent physical efficiency characteristics between filters. Epifluorescence microscopic analysis of the gelatin filter extraction fluid revealed the presence of contamination by non-culturable bacteria. Mean differences for microbial culturability were not statistically significant for filter materials and extraction methods. However, the vortexing with shaker agitation extraction method resulted in higher total microbial counts in the extraction fluids for MCE and 1 microm PTFE filters when compared to vortexing with ultrasonic agitation. In summary, the MCE and 1 microm PTFE filters in combination with vortexing and shaker extraction demonstrated the best performance for the filter collection and extraction of BG spores.     

a study of the temporal variability of atrazine in private well water. part ii: analysis of data

In 1988, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, along withthe University of Iowa, conducted the Statewide Rural WellWater Survey, commonly known as SWRL. A total of 686private rural drinking water wells was selected by use of aprobability sample and tested for pesticides and nitrate. A subsetof these wells, the 10% repeat wells, were additionally sampledin October, 1990 and June, 1991. Starting in November, 1991,the University of Iowa, with sponsorship from the United StatesEnvironmental Protection Agency, revisited the 10% repeat wellsto begin a study of the temporal variability of atrazine and nitratein wells. Other wells, which had originally tested positive foratrazine in SWRL but were not in the 10% population, wereadded to the study population. Temporal sampling for a year-long period began in February of 1992 and concluded in Januaryof 1993. All wells were sampled monthly, a subset was sampledweekly, and a second subset was sampled for 14 day consecutiveperiods. Of the 67 wells in the 10% population tested monthly,7 (10.4%) tested positive for atrazine at least once during theyear, and 3 (4%) were positive each of the 12 months. Theaverage concentration in the 7 wells was 0.10 µg/L. Fornitrate, 15 (22%) wells in the 10% repeat population monthlysampling were above the Maximum Contaminant Level of 10 mg/L at least once. This paper, the second of two papers on thisstudy, describes the analysis of data from the survey. The firstpaper (Lorber et al., 1997) reviews the study design, theanalytical methodologies, and development of the data base.     

麦夸里岛毛皮海豹体内小塑料颗粒的来源和生物聚集

本文研究了从麦夸里岛上毛皮海豹(Arctocephalus spp.)粪便中发现的164个塑料颗粒(平均长度为4.1mm).其中41个塑料颗粒的电子显微照片显示,从其形状来看,没有一个可被确定为塑料颗柱原料--通常这样的颗粒是圆柱形和球形的.而海豹粪便中的164个塑料颗粒全都是7种颜色的角形颗粒(原料颗粒通常是透明的或白色的),并可被分为两类①沿晶体线碎裂的和可能是紫外线分解的;②被磨蚀成带有圆角的不规则形状(擦痕明显可见).白色、棕色、绿色、黄色以及蓝色是最常见的颜色.在成分上,它们来自于5种聚合物群聚乙烯93%;聚丙烯4%;多(1-CI-1-聚丁二烯)聚氯丁二烯2%;三聚氰胺-尿素(酚)(甲醛)树脂0.5%以及纤维素(绳纤维)0.5%.较大的群是漂浮的,比重小于海水.这些小塑料是由较大颗粒(碎片)分解而成的.它们看来是被水冲上岸的并在卵石海滩上受到研磨的塑料用品分解而成的.大多数颗粒(70%)肯定是由于经过不断的磨蚀而最后形成今天的形状.据假设,塑料颗粒被冲到海洋中,然后按其大小有选择地被一种中上层鱼--Electrona subaspera--吃掉,而这种鱼后来又被毛皮海豹吃掉.因此,这些塑料颗粒是由这种鱼和海豹在其正常的摄食过程中聚集的.     

Detection of low-grade mosaicism in fetal cells isolated from maternal blood

Recovering and analysing fetal erythrocytes from maternal blood is being pursued for non-invasive prenatal genetic diagnosis. We report the observation of 46, XY/47, XXY mosaicism in fetal cells from a woman whose first-trimester chorionic villus sampling (CVS) initially showed only 46, XY. Only after exhaustive (500 cells) analysis were four XXY cells found in cultured villi.     

Determinants of parental decisions to abort for chromosome abnormalities

Parental decisions concerning the continuation of pregnancy following prenatal detection of abnormal chromosomes were evaluated for 80 patients whose diagnosis and prenatal counselling were performed in our centre. Twenty-two anomalies were diagnosed by chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and 58 by amniocentesis. The severity of the chromosome anomaly and associated ultrasound findings in the first vs. second trimester were correlated with patients' decisions. No difference was found in the likelihood of parental decisions to interrupt or continue a pregnancy between CVS and amniocentesis for either the‘severe’ or the‘questionable’ group of chromosome anomalies. Ninety-three per cent of patients with severe prognosis and 27 per cent with questionable prognosis opted for pregnancy termination (p <0·0001). The association of ultrasound anomalies and termination was highly significant (p< 0·001). The severity of the chromosome anomaly, and, to a lesser extent, the visualization of anomalies on ultrasound were the major determinants of parental decisions to terminate the pregnancy. The diagnosis of an anomaly in the first trimester was no more likely ito lead to a termination of pregnancy than in the second trimester.     

Evaluation of simplifying assumptions on pesticide degradation in soil

There is evidence that degradation of pesticides in simple laboratory systems may differ from that in the field, but it is not clear which of the simplifications inherent in laboratory studies present serious shortcomings. Laboratory experiments evaluated several simplifying assumptions for a clay loam soil and contrasting pesticides. Degradation of cyanazine [2-(4-chloro-6-ethylamino-1,3,5-triazin-2-ylamino)-2-methylpropiononitrile] and bentazone [3-isopropyl-1H-2,1,3-benzothiadiazin-4(3H)-one 2,2-dioxide] at fluctuating temperature and moisture was predicted reasonably well based on parameters derived from degradation under constant conditions. There was a tendency for slower degradation of cyanazine and bentazone in soil aggregates of 3 to 5 mm in diameter (DT50 at 15 degrees C and 40% maximum water holding capacity of 25.1 and 58.2 d, where DT50 is the time for 50% decline of the initial pesticide concentration) than in soil sieved to <3 mm (DT50 of 19.1 and 37.6 d), but the differences were not significant for most datasets. Degradation of cyanazine, isoproturon [3-(4-isopropylphenyl)-1,1-dimethylurea], and chlorotoluron [3-(3-chloro-p-tolyl)-1,1-dimethylurea] was measured in soil amended with different amounts of lignin. The effect of lignin on degradation was small despite considerable differences in sorption. The DT50 values of cyanazine, isoproturon, and chlorotoluron were 16.2, 18.6, and 33.0 d, respectively, in soil without lignin and 19.0, 23.4, and 34.6 d, respectively, in soil amended with 2% lignin. Degradation of bentazone and cyanazine in repacked soil columns was similar under static and flow conditions with 50.1 and 47.2% of applied bentazone and 74.7 and 73.6% of applied cyanazine, respectively, degraded within 20 d of application. Thus, the assumptions underpinning laboratory to field extrapolation tested here were considered to hold for our experimental system. Additional work is required before general conclusions can be drawn.     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.