Modeling the surface–atmosphere exchange of ammonia

New parameterizations for surface–atmosphere exchange of ammonia are presented for application in atmospheric transport models and compared with parameterizations of the literature. The new parameterizations are based on a combination of the results of three years of ammonia flux measurements over a grassland canopy (dominated by Lolium perenne and Poa trivialis) near Wageningen, the Netherlands and existing parameterizations from literature. First, a model for the surface–atmosphere exchange of ammonia that includes the concentration at the external leaf surface is derived and validated. Second, a parameterization for the stomatal compensation point (expressed as Γ_s, the ratio of [NH₄⁺]/[H⁺] in the leaf apoplast) that accounts for the observed seasonal variation is derived from the measurements. The new, temperature-dependent Γ_s describes the observed seasonal behavior very well. It is noted, however, that senescence of plants and field management practices will also influence the seasonal variation of Γ_s on a shorter timescale. Finally, a relation that links Γ_s to the atmospheric pollution level of the location through the ‘long-term’ NH₃ concentration in the air is proposed.     

Route of egg yolk protein uptake in the oocytes of kuruma prawn,Penaeus japonicus

The route of egg yolk protein uptake into the oocytes of kuruma prawn, Penaeus japonicus, was studied using immunohistochemical and electron microscopical methods. Although a significant immunofluorescence with anti-vitellin-immunoglobulin was observed in the enlarged follicle cells surrounding oil globule stage oocytes of the early vitellogenic ovary, no fluorescence was detected in shrunken follicle cells surrounding oocytes in the yolk granule stage. Electron microscopically, yolk granule stage oocytes have an irregular surface with numerous well-developed microvilli. In contrast, the surface of follicle cells is relatively smooth. The irregular surface of yolk granule stage oocytes was covered with a layer of electron dense material. Similar dense material was found in the spaces between the neighboring follicle cells on the yolk granule stage oocytes. The outer surface of the follicle cells on yolk granule stage oocytes was covered by dense materials which were similar to those found on the irregular surface of oocytes. Micropinocytotic vesicles containing dense material were found in the ooplasm near the irregular surface with numerous well-developed microvilli. Dense material was concentrated in the peripheral part of the small forming yolk bodies of yolk granule stage oocytes. This suggests that the electron dense material, probably egg yolk protein, transferred to the surface of yolk granule stage oocytes from the spaces between the neighboring follicle cells may be incorporated into the ooplasm by pinocytosis through the microvilli and subsequently aggregate to form yolk bodies.     

Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble

Recently several regional air quality projects were carried out to support the negotiation under the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme by predicting the impact of emission control policies with an ensemble of models. Within these projects, CITYDELTA and EURODELTA, the fate of air quality at the scale of European cities or that of the European continent was studied using several models. In this article we focus on the results of EURODELTA. The predictive skill of the ensemble of models is described for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and secondary inorganic compounds, and the uncertainty in air quality modelling is examined through the model ensemble spread of concentrations.For ozone daily maxima the ensemble spread origin differs from one region to another. In the neighbourhood of cities or in mountainous areas the spread of predicted values does not span the range of observed data, due to poorly resolved emissions or complex-terrain meteorology. By contrast in Atlantic and North Sea coastal areas the spread of predicted values is found to be larger than the observations. This is attributed to large differences in the boundary conditions used in the different models. For NO₂ daily averages the ensemble spread is generally too small compared with observations. This is because models miss highest values occurring in stagnant meteorology in stable boundary layers near cities. For secondary particulate matter compounds the simulated concentration spread is more balanced, observations falling nearly equiprobably within the ensemble, and the spread originates both from meteorology and aerosol chemistry and thermodynamics.     

Assessment of uncertainties in expert knowledge, illustrated in fuzzy rule-based models

The coherence between different aspects in the environmental system leads to a demand for comprehensive models of this system to explore the effects of different management alternatives. Fuzzy logic has been suggested as a means to extend the application domain of environmental modelling from physical relations to expert knowledge. In such applications the expert describes the system in terms of fuzzy variables and inference rules. The result of the fuzzy reasoning process is a numerical output value. In such a model, as in any other, the model context, structure, technical aspects, parameters and inputs may contribute uncertainties to the model output. Analysis of these contributions in a simplified model for agriculture suitability shows how important information about the accuracy of the expert knowledge in relation to the other uncertainties can be provided. A method for the extensive assessment of uncertainties in compositional fuzzy rule-based models is proposed, combining the evaluation of model structure, input and parameter uncertainties. In an example model, each of these three appear to have the potential to dominate aggregated uncertainty, supporting the relevance of an ample uncertainty approach.     

使用LC／MS／MS分析水中的高氯酸盐类

对高氯酸类的使用和不适当的处置将使得高氯酸盐类在地下水、表层水、污染土壤、饮用水以及灌溉水之间迁移.美国有三十五个州已经在饮用水中检出了超过期望水平的高氯酸盐类.     

Global and Regional Impacts of Stabilizing Atmospheric CO2

Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO₂ at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO₂ concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilizaton scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation

In this paper we evaluate the global impact of surface ozone on four types of agricultural crop. The study is based on modelled global hourly ozone fields for the year 2000 and 2030, using the global 1°×1° 2-way nested atmospheric chemical transport model (TM5). Projections for the year 2030 are based on the relatively optimistic “current legislation (CLE) scenario”, i.e. assuming that currently approved air quality legislation will be fully implemented by the year 2030, without a further development of new abatement policies. For both runs, the relative yield loss due to ozone damage is evaluated based on two different indices (accumulated concentration above a 40 ppbV threshold and seasonal mean daytime ozone concentration respectively) on a global, regional and national scale. The cumulative metric appears to be far less robust than the seasonal mean, while the seasonal mean shows satisfactory agreement with measurements in Europe, the US, China and Southern India and South-East Asia.Present day global relative yield losses are estimated to range between 7% and 12% for wheat, between 6% and 16% for soybean, between 3% and 4% for rice, and between 3% and 5% for maize (range resulting from different metrics used). Taking into account possible biases in our assessment, introduced through the global application of “western” crop exposure–response functions, and through model performance in reproducing ozone-exposure metrics, our estimates may be considered as being conservative.Under the 2030 CLE scenario, the global situation is expected to deteriorate mainly for wheat (additional 2–6% loss globally) and rice (additional 1–2% loss globally). India, for which no mitigation measures have been assumed by 2030, accounts for 50% of these global increase in crop yield loss. On a regional-scale, significant reductions in crop losses by CLE-2030 are only predicted in Europe (soybean) and China (wheat).Translating these assumed yield losses into total global economic damage for the four crops considered, using world market prices for the year 2000, we estimate an economic loss in the range $14–$26 billion. About 40% of this damage is occurring in China and India. Considering the recent upward trends in food prices, the ozone-induced damage to crops is expected to offset a significant portion of the GDP growth rate, especially in countries with an economy based on agricultural production.     

The effect of modelling expert knowledge and uncertainty on multicriteria decision making: a river management case study

To support decision making on complex environmental issues, models are often used to explore the potential impacts of different management alternatives on the environmental system. We explored how different model outcomes affect decision making. Two topics have our particular interest, namely (1) the influence of quantification of qualitative information on decision making, and (2) the influence of reflecting uncertainty in the model outcomes on decision making. We set up a survey, in which we use a case study describing a decision making situation in strategic river management. The survey was disseminated through the Internet. From the results we conclude that the quantification of information in itself does not necessarily change preferences, although the outcomes suggest that preferences converge when based on quantified information. When confronted with uncertainty information, respondents show a preference for the alternative with the smallest chance of negative impacts. The study shows that, whereas the modelling community often strives to provide the policy process with as good, and as detailed information as is possible, their assumption that this will automatically lead to ‘better’ decision making is not self-evident.