Modelling soil organic carbon dynamics in two long-term experiments of north-eastern Italy

Simulation models are widely used to assess the impacts of management and environmental variables on soil organic matter dynamics, to address questions on ecosystem sustainability and carbon cycling under global change. We tested the Century ecosystem model for two long-term experiments in north-eastern Italy: one (SF) comparing nutrient management treatments in small confined plots containing widely contrasting soil types (i.e., sandy, clay and peat) and the other (CR) involving a field study with crop rotation, nutrient, and management intensity variables. The organic matter changes in the SF experiment, showed a strong, linear relationship with C inputs from crop residues and added manures in the sand and clay soils, which was closely mimicked by the model. There was a net loss of soil C for all treatments in the peat soil, but the rate and overall magnitude of C losses were accurately simulated by the model, which suggested that treatment effects on soil C inputs was the major determinant of SOC dynamics in all three soils. In the CR experiment the model reasonably simulated the large initial decline (averaging about 30% of initial levels) in SOC observed in all treatments, as well as mean treatment effects over the course of the experiment. The model predicted a general pattern of higher SOC in the high management intensity, high fertility treatment combinations and lower SOC in the low management intensity, low fertility treatments; however, observed soil C did not show a clear pattern related to the treatments. Simulated soil C contents were linearly related to C input levels in the different treatments while there was no significant relationship between measured soil C and C inputs based on observed data.     

Carbon sequestration capacity and productivity responses of Mediterranean olive groves under future climates and management options

The need to reduce the expected impact of climate change, finding sustainable ways to maintain or increase the carbon (C) sequestration capacity and productivity of agricultural systems, is one of the most important challenges of the twenty-first century. Olive (Olea europaea L.) groves can play a fundamental role due to their potential to sequester C in soil and woody compartments, associated with widespread cultivation in the Mediterranean basin. The implementation of field experiments to assess olive grove responses under different conditions, complemented by simulation models, can be a powerful approach to explore future land-atmosphere C feedbacks. The DayCent biogeochemical model was calibrated and validated against observed net ecosystem exchange, net primary productivity, aboveground biomass, leaf area index, and yield in two Italian olive groves. In addition, potential changes in C-sequestration capacity and productivity were assessed under two types of management (extensive and intensive), 35 climate change scenarios (ΔT-temperature from +?0 °C to +?3 °C; ΔP-precipitation from 0.0 to ??20%), and six areas across the Mediterranean basin (Brindisi, Coimbra, Crete, Cordoba, Florence, and Montpellier). The results indicated that (i) the DayCent model, properly calibrated, can be used to quantify olive grove daily net ecosystem exchange and net primary production dynamics; (ii) a decrease in net ecosystem exchange and net primary production is predicted under both types of management by approaching the most extreme climate conditions (ΔT?=?+?3 °C; ΔP?=???20%), especially in dry and warm areas; (iii) irrigation can compensate for net ecosystem exchange and net primary production losses in almost all areas, while ecophysiological air temperature thresholds determine the magnitude and sign of C-uptake; (iv) future warming is expected to modify the seasonal net ecosystem exchange and net primary production pattern, with higher photosynthetic activity in winter and a prolonged period of photosynthesis inhibition during summer compared to the baseline; (v) a substantial decrease in mitigation capacity and productivity of extensively managed olive groves is expected to accelerate between +?1.5 and +?2 °C warming compared to the current period, across all Mediterranean areas; (vi) adaptation measures aimed at increasing soil water content or evapotranspiration reduction should be considered the mostly suitable for limiting the decrease of both production and mitigation capacity in the next decades.