Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

The climate impact from the useof peat for energy production in Sweden hasbeen evaluated in terms of contribution toatmospheric radiative forcing. This wasdone by attempting to answer the question`What will be the climate impact if onewould use 1 m<sup>2</sup> of mire for peatextraction during 20 years?'. Two differentmethods of after-treatment were studied:afforestation and restoration of wetland.The climate impact from a peatland –wetland scenario and a peatland –forestation – bioenergy scenario wascompared to the climate impact from coal,natural gas and forest residues.Sensitivity analyses were performed toevaluate which parameters that areimportant to take into consideration inorder to minimize the climate impact frompeat utilisation. In a `multiple generationscenario' we investigate the climate impactif 1 Mega Joule (MJ) of energy is produced every yearfor 300 years from peat compared to otherenergy sources.The main conclusions from the study are:?The accumulated radiative forcing from the peatland – forestation – bioenergy scenario over a long time perspective (300 years) is estimated to be 1.35 mJ/m²/m² extraction area assuming a medium-high forest growth rate and medium original methane emissions from the virgin mire. This is below the corresponding values for coal 3.13 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area and natural gas, 1.71 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area, but higher than the value for forest residues, 0.42 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area. A `best-best-case' scenario, i.e. with high forest growth rate combined with high `avoided' methane (CH₄) emissions, will generate accumulated radiative forcing comparable to using forest residues for energy production. A `worst-worst-case' scenario, with low growth rate and low `avoided' CH₄ emissions, will generate radiative forcing somewhere in between natural gas and coal.?The accumulated radiative forcing from the peatland – wetland scenario over a 300-year perspective is estimated to be 0.73 –1.80 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area depending on the assumed carbon (C) uptake rates for the wetland and assuming a medium-high methane emissions from a restored wetland. The corresponding values for coal is 1.88 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area, for natural gas 1.06 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area and for forest residues 0.10 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area. A `best-best-case' scenario (i.e. with high carbon dioxide CO<sub>2</sub>-uptake combined with high `avoided' CH₄ emissions and low methane emissions from the restored wetland) will generate accumulated radiative forcing that decreases and reaches zero after 240 years. A `worst-worst-case' (i.e. with low CO<sub>2</sub>-uptake combined with low `avoided' CH₄ emissions and high methane emissions from the restored wetland) will generate radiative forcing higher than coal over the entire time period.?The accumulated radiative forcing in the `multiple generations' – scenarios over a 300-year perspective producing 1 MJ/year is estimated to be 0.089 mJ/ m<sup>2</sup> for the scenario `Peat forestation – bioenergy', 0.097 mJ/ m² for the scenario `Peat wetland with high CO<sub>2</sub>-uptake' and 0.140 mJ/ m<sup>2</sup> for the scenario `Peat wetland with low CO₂-uptake'. Corresponding values for coal is 0.160 mJ/ m², for natural gas 0.083 mJ/ m² and for forest residues 0.015 mJ/ m². Using a longer time perspective than 300 years will result in lower accumulated radiative forcing from the scenario `Peat wetland with high CO₂-uptake'. This is due to the negative instantaneous forcing that occurs after 200 years for each added generation.?It is important to consider CH₄ emissions from the virgin mire when choosing mires for utilization. Low original methane emissions give significantly higher total climate impact than high original emissions do.?Afforestation on areas previously used for peat extraction should be performed in a way that gives a high forest growth rate, both for the extraction area and the surrounding area. A high forest growth rate gives lower climate impact than a low forest growth rate.?There are great uncertainties related to the data used for emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases in restored wetlands. The mechanisms affecting these emissions and uptake should be studied further.     

Preface

Preface

Preface     

Assessment of Uncertainty in Long-Term Mass Balances for Acidification Assessments: A MAGIC Model Exercise

Long-term (1860–2010) catchment mass balance calculations rely on models and assumptions which are sources of uncertainty in acidification assessments. In this article, we report on an application of MAGIC to model acidification at the four Swedish IM forested catchments that have been subject to differing degrees of acidification stress. Uncertainties in the modeled mass balances were mainly associated with the deposition scenario and assumptions about sulfate adsorption and soil mass. Estimated base cation (BC) release rates (weathering) varied in a relatively narrow range of 47–62 or 42–47 meq m⁻² year⁻¹, depending on assumptions made about soil cation exchange capacity and base saturation. By varying aluminum solubility or introducing a dynamic weathering feedback that allowed BC release to increase at more acidic pHs, a systematic effect on predicted changes in acid neutralizing capacity (ΔANC ca. 10–41 μeq l⁻¹) and pH (ca. ΔpH = 0.1–0.6) at all sites was observed. More robust projections of future changes in pH and ANC are dependent on reducing uncertainties in BC release rates, the timing, and extent of natural acidification through BC uptake by plants, temporal changes in soil element pools, and fluxes of Al between compartments.     

Short-run allocation of emissions allowances and long-term goals for climate policy

We use economic analysis to evaluate grandfathering, auctioning, and benchmarking approaches for allocation of emissions allowances and then discuss practical experience from European and American schemes. In principle, auctions are superior from the viewpoints of efficiency, fairness, transparency, and simplicity. In practice, auctions have been opposed by important sectors of industry, which argue that carbon pricing without compensation would harm international competitiveness. In the European Union's Emissions Trading System, this concern led to grandfathering that is updated at various intervals. Unfortunately, updating gives industry an incentive to change behavior to influence future allocation. Furthermore, the wealth transferred to incumbent firms can be significantly larger than the extra costs incurred, leading to windfall profits. Meanwhile, potential auction revenues are not available to reduce other taxes. By circumscribing free allocation, benchmarking can target competitiveness concerns, incur less wealth transfer, and provide a strategy consistent with transitioning to auctions in the long run.     

Recovery of Acidified Streams in Forests Treated by Total Catchment Liming

Reduced emissions of acidifying pollutants have changed the acidification process, and as a result, forest soils and surface waters are slowly recovering in Sweden. However, model calculations show that some areas may never recover completely unless further measures, such as liming, are undertaken. Liming of surface waters (lakes, rivers and wetlands) has been successfully practised in Sweden since the 1970s, but repeated treatments are necessary. A full recovery of acidified lakes and streams without frequent liming is however not possible until soil acidification is reversed in the most strongly affected areas. In this study, the recovery of acidified streams was examined using ‘the total catchment approach’ i.e. treatment of both recharge and discharge areas. The aim was to compare the quantitative effect of different treatments on run off chemistry and the recovery of brown trout. Catchments in southwest Sweden were treated with a combination of 2 tons of wood ash and 4, 6 or 12 tons of crushed limestone per hectare in 1998/1999. Treatment of both recharge and discharge areas resulted in fast and significant changes in stream water quality, e.g. increased concentrations of calcium, higher pH and ANC and a decreased concentration of inorganic aluminium. The initial changes were dependent on the distribution of the applied lime between discharge and recharge areas rather than the average dose on the total catchment. Treatment of recharge areas only, resulted in smaller but still significant effects on calcium, pH and ANC in stream water. Furthermore, there was an initial leaching of nitrate but it was only minor compared with the elevated leaching that occurs after a clear-cut. As a result of the treatments, brown trout is now successfully reproducing. Olle Westling (deceased).     

What have we learnt from the European Union's Emissions Trading System?

The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) demonstrated the ability to design and launch a large-scale trading system in a short period of time. The path from initial reticence about emissions trading to implementation of the world's largest program is an important history. Three issues play a large role in the evaluation of the program to date and its on-going development: allocation plans, cost uncertainty, and leakage of emissions to abroad. Decisions in Phase I and II (2005-2012) were responsive to questions of political feasibility and implementation, but some of these decisions including allocation in particular will be substantially revised in Phase III (2013-2020).     

Socio-economic research in support of climate policy development: Mistra's Research Program Clipore

Mistra's Climate Policy Research Program, Clipore, is one of the largest research programs directed to support international climate policy development, involving research groups in Sweden, Norway, United States and India. It has been running from 2004 to 2011 with a budget of more than 100 MSEK (15?M USD). The paper briefly describes the program and its outcomes in relation to climate policy development. Discussion focuses on how the program has been able to be in the front of and include the development of emissions trading systems in Europe and the United States and how the program has been able to follow and produce inputs to the agenda of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The paper also discusses how the program has managed to present its outcomes and maintain an active dialogue with the various stakeholders. The paper emphasises options and obstacles in the communication between science and policy.     

Aluminium concentrations in Swedish forest streams and co-variations with catchment characteristics

The negative effects of elevated concentrations of inorganic aluminium on aquatic organisms are well documented. Acid deposition is often cited as a main driver behind the mobilisation and speciation of aluminium in soils and surface waters. In the study, we tested the hypothesis that sulphur deposition is the main driver for elevated concentrations of inorganic aluminium in 114 base poor, boreal Swedish streams. However, the deposition of anthropogenic sulphate has decreased substantially since it peaked in the 1970s, and at the current deposition levels, we hypothesise that local site parameters play an important role in determining vulnerability to elevated concentrations of inorganic aluminium in boreal stream waters. Presented here are the results of a principal components analysis of stream water chemistry, acid deposition data and local site variables, including forest composition and stem volume. It is shown that the concentrations of both organic and inorganic aluminium are not explained by either historical or current acid deposition, but are instead explained by a combination of local site characteristics. Sites with elevated concentrations of inorganic aluminium were characterised by small catchments (<500 ha) dominated by mature stands of Norway spruce with high stem volume. Using data from the Swedish National Forest Inventory the area of productive forest land in Sweden with a higher vulnerability for elevated inorganic aluminium concentrations in forests streams is approximately 1.5 million hectares or 7% of the total productive forest area; this is higher in the south of Sweden (10%) and lower in the north (2%). A better understanding of the effects of natural processes and forest management in controlling aquatic inorganic aluminium concentrations is therefore important in future discussions about measures against surface water acidification.     

Options for Emission Allowance Allocation Under the Eu Emissions Trading Directive

The article investigates four alternative allocation schemes for emission allowances. The investigated schemes are emission-based allocation, production-based allocation with actor-specific emission factors, production-based allocation with benchmarking and production-based allocation based on data on best available technology (BAT). All the examined schemes apply free allocation based on historical activities. The allocation schemes are evaluated against the criteria for a National Allocation Plan, listed in the Annex III of the EU ETS Directive, and regarding their conformity with the criteria put forward by the Swedish Parliamentary Delegation on Flexible Mechanisms, The FlexMex 2 Commission. No allocation scheme unambiguously meets all criteria. Each has its advantages and disadvantages. Emission-based allocation schemes are most straightforward, transparent and are the easiest to implement. Production-based allocation schemes meet more of the criteria, but are more costly to implement and require more data. Data on BAT will not be available to the extent necessary in order to base an allocation scheme implemented for the trading starting 2005 on BAT. It is unlikely that any given allocation scheme will be perceived as fair by all concerned parties, no matter how sophisticated it is. The overall characteristics of the studied allocation schemes are summarised in the paper. Due to the lack of abatement cost curves, it is not possible to accurately model capital flows between the trading sectors. Data availability will most probably limit the options available to the authorities designing the allocation schemes. An erratum to this article is available at .