A Long-Term Electricity Dispatch Model with the TIMES Framework

A new Swiss TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System) electricity model with an hourly representation of inter-temporal detail and a century-long model horizon has been developed to explore the TIMES framework’s suitability as a long-term electricity dispatch model. To understand the incremental insights from this hourly model, it is compared to an aggregated model with only two diurnal timeslices like in most MARKAL/TIMES models. Two scenarios have been analysed with both models to answer the following questions: Are there differences in model solutions? What are the benefits of having a high number of timeslices? Are there any computational limitations? The primary objective of this paper is to understand the differences between the solutions of the two models, rather than Swiss policy implication or potential uncertainties in input parameters and assumptions. The analysis reveals that the hourly model offers powerful insights into the electricity generation schedule. Nevertheless, the TIMES framework cannot substitute for a dispatch model because some features cannot be represented; however, the long model time horizon and integrated system approaches of TIMES provide features not available in conventional dispatch models. The methodology of the model development and insights from the model comparison are described.     

Proposal for selective differentiating of nerve agent G and V type with utilisation of modified Ellman’s method

We studied issues of organophosphorus agents’ analysis. Immobilised enzyme–inhibitors complexes (e.g. acetylcholinesterase-organophosphate nerve agent) were studied with modified Ellman’s biochemical method utilised for assessment of acetylcholinesterase activity. Biochemical reactions are widespread and they are the most frequent used analytical methods for determination of nerve agents. This modified method is based on the nucleophilic reactions of mono- and bispyridinium aldoximes of a type 2-PAM, MMB-4 and HI-6, their homologues and isomers with enzyme–inhibitor complexes. The procedure for a gradual analysis of G and V type, Sarin, Cyclohexylsarin, Soman, Tabun, agent VX and R-33 was proposed in terms of studied nucleophilic substitution reactions quantification results. This method enables selective determination of these chemical warfare agents. A gradual analysis was evaluated by statistic method of probabilistic calculus. This type of analysis can be used for assessment of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in very low concentrations close to hygienic limits.     

Support for Hawaiian humpback whales

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Support for Hawaiian humpback whales     

The economics of sequential choice applied to quasi-option value

This paper develops a general model that can be used to determine the value of sequential forecasts. The model is used (1) to examine the interacting effects of strategies for coping with environmental uncertainty, and (2) to explore the relationship between the theories of sequential choice and quasi-option value. The framework presented bridges these two schools of thought and provides a tool for evaluating one time (e.g., climate change) or repetitive (e.g., pollution) forecasts of environmental damage.     

The impact of coal utilization in Texas under the National energy plan

The paper describes the results of a study of the impact of the National Energy on the trend towards increased utilization of coal and lignite in Texas with forecasts of increased coal and lignite utilization for the electric utility and industrial sectors. Environmental impacts of this increased coal and lignite use are projected in terms of increased air pollutant emissions and air quality impacts. Economic costs of compliance with alternative source emission regulations are also projected for the electric utility industry.Lignite consumption in Texas under the National Energy Plan is projected to increase from the present 13 million metric tons in 1976 to 57 million metric tons annually by 1985. Sub-bituminous coal consumption in Texas is projected to increase from 1 million metric per year in 1976 to 49 million metric tons per year in 1985. Bituminous coal consumption in Texas is expected to increase from less than one million metric tons per year in 1976 to about 3 million metric tons per year in 1985.Major increases in sulfur oxides emissions from coal and lignite combustion in Texas can be expected by 1985 of up to 1.5 × 10⁹ kg per year without controls and 0.2 × 10⁹ kg per year with controls. Increases in acid precipitation formation will result in north-east Texas from extensive lignite usage for electric power generation as a detriment to agriculture. The photochemical air pollution problem in the Houston area will probably worsen primarily because of increased nitrogen oxides and sulfur oxides emissions because of industrial coal combustion. Capital costs of air pollution controls in Texas for coal-fired utility boilers are estimated as up to U.S. $3.9 billion by 1985, with total operating costs of up to U.S. $1.2 billion per year.     

一种改进的多学习教与学优化算法

针对传统教与学算法在解决复杂多峰函数优化问题时,具有局部最优且搜索开发能力较差的缺点,提出了一种改进的多学习教与学优化算法,新算法为学员的每一维加入不同的教学因子,设计了基于学员均值比较的教师选择策略和向教师及学员学习的多学习策略。基于多个单峰和多峰函数的仿真结果表明,新算法跟传统的、改进的教与学算法相比,在稳定性、寻优精度和收敛速度方面更具优势。     

A model for energetics and bioaccumulation in marine mammals with applications to the right whale.

We present a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for marine mammals, coupled with a pharmacokinetic model of a lipophilic persistent toxicant. Inputs to the model are energy availability and lipid-normalized toxicant concentration in the environment. The model predicts individual growth, reproduction, bioaccumulation, and transfer of energy and toxicant from mothers to their young. We estimated all model parameters for the right whale; with these parameters, reduction in energy availability increases the age at first parturition, increases intervals between reproductive events, reduces the organisms' ability to buffer seasonal fluctuations, and increases its susceptibility to temporal shifts in the seasonal peak of energy availability. Reduction in energy intake increases bioaccumulation and the amount of toxicant transferred from mother to each offspring. With high energy availability, the toxicant load of offspring decreases with birth order. Contrary to expectations, this ordering may be reversed with lower energy availability. Although demonstrated with parameters for the right whale, these relationships between energy intake and energetics and pharmacokinetics of organisms are likely to be much more general. Results specific to right whales include energy assimilation estimates for the North Atlantic and southern right whale, influences of history of energy availability on reproduction, and a relationship between ages at first parturition and calving intervals. Our model provides a platform for further analyses of both individual and population responses of marine mammals to pollution, and to changes in energy availability, including those likely to arise through climate change.