Assessing and testing prediction uncertainty for single tree-based models: A case study applied to northern hardwood stands in southern Québec, Canada

Estimating prediction uncertainty for a single tree-based model is hindered by the complex structure of these models. In this paper, we addressed this issue with a case study applied to northern hardwood stands in Québec, Canada. SaMARE is a stochastic single tree-based model that was designed for these types of stands. Using a Monte Carlo approach, the model can provide a mean predicted value and its confidence limits for some plot-level attributes.The mean predicted values were compared to observed values in terms of bias and accuracy. In addition to these common statistics, we compared nominal coverage of Monte Carlo-simulated confidence intervals with real (observed) coverage to verify the adequacy of the simulated uncertainty. A comparison was made using several plot-level attributes, which exhibited an increasing discriminative complexity. This complexity ranges from coarse attributes, such as all-species basal area, up to more complex ones, such as basal area for stems of a particular species and with sawlog potential.The results showed that in terms of absolute value, biases were small, but could be relatively high with respect to the average observed value when the discriminative complexity of the attribute increased. The comparison between nominal and real coverage of confidence intervals gave satisfactory results for all-species plot-level attributes. However, for some species-specific attributes, the Monte Carlo-simulated confidence intervals overestimated the real coverage.     

Importance of biotic and abiotic regulators of abundance of the intertidal amphipod Calliopius laeviusculus (Amphipoda: Gammaridae) and assessment of the accuracy and precision of sampling methods for detecting abundance changes

We examined seasonal patterns of abundance for the intertidal amphipod Calliopius laeviusculus (Amphipoda: Gammaridae). Amphipods were sampled with an epibenthic sled during the daytime high tide period from 18 May to 8 August 1988. Amphipod density increased from May to June and reached maxima in both late June and early August. Amphipod density was unrelated to any abiotic component measured in the intertidal community. These variables included sampling location, wave height, water column height, water temperature, salinity and cloud cover. Changes in abundance were related with sampling date and with the onset of capelin (Mallotus villosus) spawning activity in the intertidal. Capelin eggs are an important food item for amphipods. The accuracy of density estimates obtained with the epibenthic sled was assessed through comparison with densities obtained with a more efficient quadrat sampler. Sled samples consistently sampled ca. 1% of the amphipod population. We found that a large portion of the amphipod population burrowed into the sediment and was not effectively sampled by the sled. Sled sampler precision was roughly equivalent to that of quadrats with D (precision) ranging from 0.26 to 0.42 for sled samples and D=0.29 for quadrat samples. Although sample collection with the epibenthic sled was achieved more quickly and under a wider range of weather conditions than was possible with the quadrat sampler, the serious underestimate of amphipod density based on sled samples alone indicates that both sled and quadrat samples, obtained in concert, are required to obtain accurate measures of daily variation in C. laeviusculus abundance.Contribution to the program of GIROQ (Groupe interuniversitaire de recherches oceanographique du Quebec)     

Acetylcholinesterase in honey bees (Apis mellifera) exposed to neonicotinoids, atrazine and glyphosate: laboratory and field experiments

In Québec, as observed globally, abnormally high honey bee mortality rates have been reported recently. Several potential contributing factors have been identified, and exposure to pesticides is of increasing concern. In maize fields, foraging bees are exposed to residual concentrations of insecticides such as neonicotinoids used for seed coating. Highly toxic to bees, neonicotinoids are also reported to increase AChE activity in other invertebrates exposed to sub-lethal doses. The purpose of this study was therefore to test if the honey bee’s AChE activity could be altered by neonicotinoid compounds and to explore possible effects of other common products used in maize fields: atrazine and glyphosate. One week prior to pollen shedding, beehives were placed near three different field types: certified organically grown maize, conventionally grown maize or non-cultivated. At the same time, caged bees were exposed to increasing sub-lethal doses of neonicotinoid insecticides (imidacloprid and clothianidin) and herbicides (atrazine and glyphosate) under controlled conditions. While increased AChE activity was found in all fields after 2 weeks of exposure, bees close to conventional maize crops showed values higher than those in both organic maize fields and non-cultivated areas. In caged bees, AChE activity increased in response to neonicotinoids, and a slight decrease was observed by glyphosate. These results are discussed with regard to AChE activity as a potential biomarker of exposure for neonicotinoids.     

Evaluating the potential of biodiversity offsets to achieve net gain

Evaluating the outcomes and tracking the trajectory of biodiversity offsets is essential to demonstrating their effectiveness as a mechanism to conciliate development and conservation. We reviewed the literature to determine the principles that should underpin biodiversity offset planning and the criteria for offset evaluation at the project level. According to the literature, the core principles of equivalence, additionality, and permanence are used as criteria to evaluate conservation outcomes of offsets. We applied the criteria to evaluate offsets of a large iron ore mining project in the Atlantic Forest in Brazil. We examined equivalence in terms of the amount of area per biodiversity value affected and fauna and flora similarity, additionality in terms of landscape connectivity, and permanence in terms of guarantees to ensure protection and restoration offsets lasting outcomes. We found an offset ratio (amount of affected area:offset area) of 1:1.8 for forests and 1:2 for grasslands. Ecological equivalence (i.e., similarity between affected and offset areas) was found for forested areas, but not for ferruginous rupestrian grasslands or for fauna. Landscape metrics showed that connectivity improved relative to the preproject situation as a result of locating restoration offsets in the largest and best-connected forest patch. Permanence of offsets was addressed by establishing covenants and management measures, but financial guarantees to cover maintenance costs after mine closure were lacking. Offsets should be equivalent in type and size, provide conservation outcomes that would not be obtained without them (additionality), and be lasting (permanence). To monitor and evaluate offsets, it is necessary to determine how well these 3 principles are applied in the planning, implementation, and maintenance of offsets. Achieving measurable conservation outcomes from offsets is a long-term endeavor that requires sustained management support, and is information intensive. Thus, offsets require ongoing monitoring and evaluation as well as adaptive management.     

Nonylphenolic compounds in drinking and surface waters downstream of treated textile and pulp and paper effluents: a survey and preliminary assessment of their potential effects on public health and aquatic life

Eleven drinking water treatment plants, located downstream of textile plants or pulp and paper mills, have been sampled monthly during a year for the analysis of 17 nonylphenol ethoxylates (NP1-17EO) and two nonylphenoxycarboxylic acids (NP1-2EC). At all but one plant, results in the drinking water, for the sum of these 19 substances, range between below detection levels and 6.7 microg/l. Annual means are between 0.02 and 2.8 microg/l. At the other plant, the yearly average concentration is 10.4 microg/l and the monthly maximum is 43.3 microg/l. In the surface (pre-treatment) water, the annual mean concentrations of the 11 plants range between 0.14 and 17.8 microg/l and the recorded instantaneous maximum is 55.3 microg/l. According to Canadian health authorities, drinking water is a negligible route of human exposure to nonylphenolic compounds, even at the highest concentrations found in this study. After transformation of the data into nonylphenol equivalents, about 20% of the surface water samples exceed the Canadian 1 microg/l nonylphenol water quality guideline for the protection of aquatic life. Some results also exceed Québec's 6 microg/l nonylphenol guideline. The efficiency of the plants in removing nonylphenolic compounds from drinking water is highly variable, ranging from 11% to 99%.