The evolution of the Canadian mining industry: The role of regulatory punctuation

In this study, we analyze the evolution of Canada's mining industry from 1929 to 2006, focussing on the determinants of the number of firms in the industry and why this number changed over that period. Most empirical studies of industry evolution have focused on manufacturing industries that share similar structural characteristics. Perhaps because of this, extant models of industry evolution tend to ignore industry-specific and national-specific factors that can cause atypical trajectories, that is, heterogeneous industry evolution. Initial inspection of the Canadian mining industry shows that it is atypical in that it exhibits “negative skew” over time in the number of firms rather than the typical “positive skew.” We review two dominant theoretical approaches to industry evolution: the density-dependence theory and variants of industrial organization economics. We also consider possible sources of industry evolution heterogeneity, focussing particularly on “regulatory punctuation”. Using Canadian mining data, we find that the traditional models do not fully explain the changes in population size in Canada's mining industry. As a result, we introduce a number of hybrid models. The results from these hybrid models suggest that Canadian-specific regulatory punctuations, particularly the introduction of significant new taxes, environmental legislation, and incentives have shaped the trajectory of mining firm participation.     

Evaluating factors influencing groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution: developing the potential of GIS

The 1991 EU Nitrate Directive was designed to reduce water pollution from agriculturally derived nitrates. England and Wales implemented this Directive by controlling agricultural activities within their most vulnerable areas termed Nitrate Vulnerable Zones. These were designated by identifying drinking water catchments (surface and groundwater), at risk from nitrate pollution. However, this method contravened the Nitrate Directive because it only protected drinking water and not all waters. In this paper, a GIS was used to identify all areas of groundwater vulnerable to nitrate pollution. This was achieved by constructing a model containing data on four characteristics: the quality of the water leaving the root zone of a piece of land; soil information; presence of low permeability superficial (drift) material; and aquifer properties. These were combined in a GIS and the various combinations converted into a measure of vulnerability using expert knowledge. Several model variants were produced using different estimates of the quality of the water leaving the root zone and contrasting methods of weighting the input data. When the final models were assessed all produced similar spatial patterns and, when verified by comparison with trend data derived from monitored nitrate concentrations, all the models were statistically significant predictors of groundwater nitrate concentrations. The best predictive model contained a model of nitrate leaching but no land use information, implying that changes in land use will not affect designations based upon this model. The relationship between nitrate levels and borehole intake depths was investigated since there was concern that the observed contrasts in nitrate levels between vulnerability categories might be reflecting differences in borehole intake depths and not actual vulnerability. However, this was not found to be statistically important. Our preferred model provides the basis for developing a new set of groundwater Nitrate Vulnerable Zones that should help England and Wales to comply with the EU Nitrate Directive.     

Mapping Odor Sources from Complaint Statistics I: Identifying the Major Source

Odor is acknowledged as a major community air pollution nuisance, but the problems of analysis, particularly in Identifying the origin of odor, are also well recognised. One approach to the problem has been the development of computational schemes which use wind directions at the times of odor observations to locate the likely source of odor. An earlier technique, PONG, has now been superseded by a more sophisticated version, PONG2, which incorporates Gaussian plume modeling techniques. This paper describes the operation of PONG2 in the odor source mapping mode and provides an analysis of the Insensitivity of the technique to errors in input. Then, using specific Australian examples of community odor nuisance emanating from a large sewage treatment complex near Melbourne, and an irrigated golf course within metropolitan Darwin, the paper outlines the utility of PONG2 in resolving problem odor sources at a range of scales and levels of complexity.     

Detecting deterrence from patrol data

The threat posed to protected areas by the illegal killing of wildlife is countered principally by ranger patrols that aim to detect and deter potential offenders. Deterring poaching is a fundamental conservation objective, but its achievement is difficult to identify, especially when the prime source of information comes in the form of the patrols’ own records, which inevitably contain biases. The most common metric of deterrence is a plot of illegal activities detected per unit of patrol effort (CPUE) against patrol effort (CPUE-E). We devised a simple, mechanistic model of law breaking and law enforcement in which we simulated deterrence alongside exogenous changes in the frequency of offences under different temporal patterns of enforcement effort. The CPUE-E plots were not reliable indicators of deterrence. However, plots of change in CPUE over change in effort (ΔCPUE-ΔE) reliably identified deterrence, regardless of the temporal distribution of effort or any exogenous change in illegal activity levels as long as the time lag between patrol effort and subsequent behavioral change among offenders was approximately known. The ΔCPUE-ΔE plots offered a robust, simple metric for monitoring patrol effectiveness; were no more conceptually complicated than the basic CPUE-E plots; and required no specialist knowledge or software to produce. Our findings demonstrate the need to account for temporal autocorrelation in patrol data and to consider appropriate (and poaching-activity-specific) intervals for aggregation. They also reveal important gaps in understanding of deterrence in this context, especially the mechanisms by which it occurs. In practical applications, we recommend the use of ΔCPUE-ΔE plots in preference to other basic metrics and advise that deterrence should be suspected only if there is a clear negative slope. Distinct types of illegal activity should not be grouped together for analysis, especially if the signs of their occurrence have different persistence times in the environment.     

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

基于多态模糊BN的石化动设备故障概率定量风险评估

石化行业的压缩机、泵等动设备故障模式多样,故障概率的不确定性较大,常用的风险评估方法无法实现对石化行业动设备失效概率的定量评估,限制了设备安全管理的准确性和有效性。基于贝叶斯网络(BN)可定量计算复杂系统失效概率的特点,利用故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)方法获取动设备风险事件的因果关系,将其映射为BN,并利用BN中节点的多态性,表征动设备子系统及零部件故障模式的多样性;利用模糊概率子集替代边缘概率精确值,表征了动设备零部件故障概率的不确定性,并提出可行的条件概率判断方法,从而形成了石化行业动设备失效概率的定量评估方法;最后以某站场的往复式压缩机为例,对建立的定量风险评估方法进行了实例应用。结果表明:气阀和气缸出现半故障的失效概率较大,分别为0.0040和0.0045;该类型压缩机故障时,阀片或弹簧损坏和轴瓦松动的可能性较大,其后验概率分别为1.15×10^-5和9.92×10^-6,符合实际情况,验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。     

Valuing third sector sustainability organisations – qualitative contributions to systemic social transformation

The number and diversity of civil society or third sector sustainability organisations (TSSOs) have increased in recent decades. TSSOs play a prominent role in local approaches to sustainability. However, the contributions made by TSSOs are not fully understood, beyond a limited suite of quantifiable outputs and impacts. In this qualitative study, we examine how four TSSOs from two Australian regions, Tasmania and Queensland's Sunshine Coast, contribute to social transformation beyond discrete outputs. We examine the operation, ethos, scope and influence of these organisations over time. In so doing, we identify three common ways in which these organisations facilitate social change: by (i) enhancing social connectivity through boundary work; (ii) mobilising participatory citizenship and (iii) contributing to social learning. We conclude that TSSOs contribute significantly to the systemic social conditions that enable change for sustainability and the development of community resilience and well-being, but do so in ways undervalued by existing metrics, formal evaluation processes and funding models. Clearer recognition of, and strategic emphasis on, these qualitative contributions to social transformation is vital in ensuring that TSSOs remain viable and effective over the long term.     

Characterization, reactivity, source apportionment, and potential source areas of ambient volatile organic compounds in a typical tropical city

Based on one-year observation, the concentration, sources, and potential source areas of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were comprehensively analyzed to investigate the pollution characteristics of ambient VOCs in Haikou, China. The results showed that the annual average concentration of total VOCs (TVOCs) was 11.4 ppbV, and the composition was dominated by alkanes (8.2 ppbV, 71.4%) and alkenes (1.3 ppbV, 20.5%). The diurnal variation in the concentration of dominant VOC species showed a distinct bimodal distribution with peaks in the morning and evening. The greatest contribution to ozone formation potential (OFP) was made by alkenes (51.6%), followed by alkanes (27.2%). The concentrations of VOCs and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) in spring and summer were low, and it was difficult to generate high ozone (O₃) concentrations through photochemical reactions. The significant increase in O₃ concentrations in autumn and winter was mainly related to the transmission of pollutants from the northeast. Traffic sources (40.1%), industrial sources (19.4%), combustion sources (18.6%), solvent usage sources (15.5%) and plant sources (6.4%) were identified as major sources of VOCs through the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. The southeastern coastal areas of China were identified as major potential source areas of VOCs through the potential source contribution function (PSCF) and concentration-weighted trajectory (CWT) models. Overall, the concentration of ambient VOCs in Haikou was strongly influenced by traffic sources and long-distance transport, and the control of VOCs emitted from vehicles should be strengthened to reduce the active species of ambient VOCs in Haikou, thereby reducing the generation of O₃.     

三亚城区PM2.5中水溶性离子特征与来源分析

基于2019年三亚城区站点PM_2.5中水溶性离子在线观测数据,分析了水溶性离子的质量浓度水平、不同时间尺度和不同PM_2.5浓度下的特征,探讨了气象因子对离子组分的影响,通过主成分分析（PCA）解析来源.结果表明：2019年三亚城区总水溶性离子（TWSI）质量浓度为8.173 μg·m^-3,占ρ（PM_2.5）的58.4%,各离子质量浓度大小依次为：ρ（SO₄^2-） > ρ（NO₃^-） > ρ（K⁺） > ρ（NH₄⁺） > ρ（Na⁺） > ρ（Cl^-） > ρ（Ca²⁺） > ρ（F^-） > ρ（Mg²⁺） > ρ（NO₂^-）,其中二次离子SO₄^2-、NO₃^-、NH₄⁺（SNA）和K⁺为主要离子组分,占总水溶性离子的80.0%,海盐粒子Na⁺及Cl^-之和占比为14.7%,且与风速呈显著正相关;TWSI季节浓度变化特征明显,秋季最高,春冬季次之,夏季最低,主要与秋冬季风速较大、主导风向转为东北风,易受外来传输有关;SO₄^2-在各个季节均是浓度及占比最高的离子,硫氧化率（SOR）的日均值均大于0.1,存在显著的SO₂向SO₄^2-转化的过程;PCA分析结果表明三亚城区水溶性离子主要受海洋源、二次源及生物质燃烧源的影响.