Emission projections for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Section 812 second prospective Clean Air Act cost/benefit analysis

Section 812 of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 requires the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to perform periodic, comprehensive analyses of the total costs and total benefits of programs implemented pursuant to the CAAA. The first prospective analysis was completed in 1999. The second prospective analysis was initiated during 2005. The first step in the second prospective analysis was the development of base and projection year emission estimates that will be used to generate benefit estimates of CAAA programs. This paper describes the analysis, methods, and results of the recently completed emission projections. There are several unique features of this analysis. One is the use of consistent economic assumptions from the Department of Energy's Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005) projections as the basis for estimating 2010 and 2020 emissions for all sectors. Another is the analysis of the different emissions paths for both with and without CAAA scenarios. Other features of this analysis include being the first EPA analysis that uses the 2002 National Emission Inventory files as the basis for making 48-state emission projections, incorporating control factor files from the Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs) that had completed emission projections at the time the analysis was performed, and modeling the emission benefits of the expected adoption of measures to meet the 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), the Clean Air Visibility Rule, and the PM2.5 NAAQS. This analysis shows that the 1990 CAAA have produced significant reductions in criteria pollutant emissions since 1990 and that these emission reductions are expected to continue through 2020. CAAA provisions have reduced volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by approximately 7 million t/yr by 2000, and are estimated to produce associated VOC emission reductions of 16.7 million t by 2020. Total oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) emission reductions attributable to the CAAA are 5, 12, and 17 million t in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission benefits during the study period are dominated by electricity-generating unit (EGU) SO2 emission reductions. These EGU emission benefits go from 7.5 million t reduced in 2000 to 15 million t reduced in 2020.     

Evaluation of Metric Precision for a Riparian Forest Survey

This article evaluates the performance of a protocol to monitor riparian forests in western Oregon, United States based on thequality of the data obtained from a field survey. Precision isthe criteria used to determine the quality of 19 field and 6 derived metrics. The derived metrics were calculated from thefield data. The survey consisted of 110 riparian sites on publicand private lands that were sampled during the summers of 1996 and 1997. In order to calculate metric precision, some of the field plots were re-measured. Metric precision was defined in terms of the coefficient of variability (CV) and standard deviation and then compared with a pre-defined data quality objective (DQO). A metric was considered precise if the CV met or exceeded the DQO. The geomorphology metrics were not precisewhile the forest stand inventory metrics and forest cover metrics, with some exceptions, were precise. The precision formany of the field and derived metrics compared favorably withthe level of precision for similar metrics reported in the literature. Recommendations are made to improve the precision for some metrics and they include changing the way precision is calculated, re-defining the field protocol, or improving field training.     

Index of Alien Impact: A Method for Evaluating Potential Ecological Impact of Alien Plant Species

Alien plant species are stressors to ecosystems and indicators of reduced ecosystem integrity. The magnitude of the stress reflects not only the quantity of aliens present, but also the quality of their interactions with native ecosystems. We develop an Index of Alien Impact (IAI) to estimate the collective ecological impact of in situ alien species. IAI summarizes the frequency of occurrence and potential ecological impact (Invasiveness-Impact Score (I _i )) of individual alien species for all aliens present in a particular location or community type. A component metric, I _i , is based on ecological species traits (life history, ecological amplitude, and ability to alter ecosystem processes) that reflect mechanisms, which can increase impact to ecosystem structure and function. While I _i is less complex than some other multi-metric rankings of alien impact, it compares well to these metrics and to qualitative judgments. IAI can be adapted for different ecological settings by modifying the set of species traits incorporated in I _i to reflect properties likely to breach biotic and abiotic barriers or alter ecosystem function in a particular region or community type of interest. To demonstrate our approach, we created versions of IAI and I _i , applicable to the diverse streamside vegetation of a river basin (19,631 km²) spanning low-elevation arid to mesic montane habitats in eastern Oregon, USA. In this demonstration effort, we (1) evaluate relationships of IAI to metrics describing invasion level, and (2) illustrate the potential utility of IAI for prioritizing alien species management activities and informing restoration goals.     

PLATE JUNCTIONS AND HYDROCARBON ACCUMULATIONS IN THE INDIAN REGION

This article relates the productive and potential oil fields in India to plate junctions and other major tectonic features. High geothermal gradients are known to accelerate the expulsion of petroleum from the source bed, as well as its migration and accumulation in favourable reservoir rocks, resulting in high yield. Some of the world's major petroleum deposits occur along ‘failed arms’ associated with the plume generated triple junctions. Seven triple junctions have been located in the Indian region, and two more are identified here. Interestingly, India's off-shore petroleum prospects coincide with some of these triple junctions. Cet article établit la relation entre les champs de pétrole en production et potentiels en Inde à la théorie des plaques et à d'autres traits tectoniques importants. L'on sait que des gradients géothermiques élevés accélèrent l'expulsion du pétrole à partir de la roche-mère et favorisent la migration et l'accumulation dans des réservoirs convenables. Quelques-uns des plus grands champs de pétrole du monde se rencontrent en liaison avec des ‘bras morts’ associés avec un système triple de fossés d'effondrement. Sept systèmes triples ont été repérés en Inde et deux autres sont reconnus ici. II est intéressant de remarquer que les possibilités pétrolières de l'offshore indien coïncide avec certains de ces systèmes triples. Este artículo establece la relación entre los campos petrolíferos en producción y potenciales de India a la teoría de placas y otros aspectos tectónicos. Es sabido que una gradiente térmica alta ascelera la expulsión del petróleo desde la roca madre y favorece su migración y acumulación en rocas reservorio favorables. Algunos de los mayores depósitos de petróleo se encuentran a lo largo de los “brazos muertos” asociados a un sistema triple de unión de placas. Siete uniones de este tipo habia sido localizadas en India y otros dos más son identificados aquí. Es interesante notar que las posibilidades petroleras en la zona marítima de India coinciden con alguna forma de sistemas triple de placas.