A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Introduced and cryptogenic species in Port Phillip Bay, Victoria, Australia

Port Phillip Bay (PPB) is a large (1,930 km²), temperate embayment in southern Victoria, Australia. Extensive bay-wide surveys of PPB have occurred since 1840. In 1995/1996 the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Centre for Research on Introduced Marine Pests (CRIMP) undertook an intensive evaluation of the region with the aims of developing a comprehensive species list of native and introduced biota and contrasting previous bay-wide assessments with a current field survey in order to detect new incursions and discern alterations to native communities. Two methods were used to meet these aims: a re-evaluation of regional museum collections and published research in PPB to identify and determine the timing of introductions; and field surveys for benthic (infauna, epifauna and encrusting) organisms between September 1995 to March 1996. One hundred and sixty introduced (99) and cryptogenic (61) species were identified representing over 13% of the recorded species of PPB. As expected, the majority of these are concentrated around the shipping ports of Geelong and Melbourne. Invasions within PPB appear to be increasing, possibly due to an increase in modern shipping traffic and an increase in aquaculture (historically associated with incidental introductions); however the records of extensive biological surveys suggest that this may, in part, be an artefact of sampling effort. In contrast to Northern Hemisphere studies, PPB (and Southern Hemisphere introductions in general) have significantly different suites of successfully invading taxa. PPB is presented as one of the most invaded marine ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Zinc processing in the USA : An analysis of a declining industry

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the recent behaviour of the US zinc processing industry and the impact of US government policies on it. The first section of the paper is a discussion on the basic structure and conditions of the US zinc processing industry since 1950 and how they have changed. The discussion contains a general presentation of the US zinc market, a detailed look at the behaviour of individual primary zinc processing plants in the USA, Canada, Japan and Western Europe and an analysis of US government policies and their impacts on the US zinc industry. The second section of the paper is a discussion of the factors that have contributed to the decline in US zinc processing capacity and the type of government policy that should be followed in response.     

Perceptions toward stewardship among residents living near U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Facilities

Although stewardship has been widely defined and used in environmental management and planning, there is a dearth of studies that describe how the lay public perceives this concept. A national sample of residents in 14 states who live near DOE nuclear facilities were interviewed to delineate public understanding and awareness of the stewardship program of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This study discusses the findings of the survey and discusses how institutional trust influences public participation and resident’s choices of potential stewards. Almost 40% of the respondents could not define stewardship; those who did, believed that ‘responsibility,’ ‘management,’ and ‘accountability’ are key elements of stewardship. In addition, about a third of the respondents identified Federal groups and the DOE as potential stewards. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

Implications of urine-to-feces ratio in the thermophilic anaerobic digestion of swine waste.

Thermophilic anaerobic digestion of swine manure represents a potential waste treatment technology to address environmental concerns, such as odor emissions and removal of pathogenic microorganisms. However, there are concerns relative to the stability of this process when swine manure is the sole substrate. In this study, the potential of biogas production from swine manure as the sole substrate under thermophilic (50 degrees C) conditions was investigated in the laboratory, to determine whether separation of urine and feces as part of the waste collection process would benefit anaerobic digestion. Effluent from a continuously stirred tank reactor was used as the inoculum for batch tests, in which the substrate contained three different concentrations of urine (urine-free, as-excreted urine-to-feces ratio and double the as-excreted urine-to-feces ratio). Inocula were acclimated to these same urine-to-feces ratios to determine methane production. Results show that both urine-free and as-excreted substrates were not inhibitory to anaerobic inocula. Anaerobic microorganisms can be readily acclimated to substrate with double the as-excreted urine concentration, which contained nitrogen concentrations up to 7.20 g/L. Cumulative methane production reached similar levels in the batch tests, regardless of the substrate urine concentration.     

Feeding rates and diel vertical migration of copepods near South Georgia: comparison of shelf and oceanic sites

Seventeen Longhurst Hardy Plankton Recorder profiles were taken over a diel cycle in January 1990 to study the feeding of four major copepods over the South Georgia shelf. Ontogenetic changes in vertical migration were followed and feeding cycles determined by gut fluorometry for Calanoides acutus Stage CV, Calanus sinillimus CV and CVI, C. propinquus CV and Rhincalanus gigas CV and CVI. In common with a neighbouring oceanic site visited two weeks later and reported elsewhere, all four species had a diel cycle of feeding and migration. The vertical distributions of C. simillimus (all stages), R. gigas (nauplii) and Euphausia frigida (postlarvae) were similar at both sites, the night being spent within the chlorophyll maximum at 15 to 30 m. However, the biomass dominants, C. acutus and R. gigas, dwelt below the chlorophyll maximum, about 30 m deeper than their oceanic counterparts. Unlike the oceanic site, feeding at the shelf site was not restricted to darkness, but increased 6 to 10 h before nightfall and finished at dawn; the intervening period coincided with sinking and digestion. Daylight feeding may have been induced by the shorter night, lower light levels or greater food requirements at the shelf site, despite planktonic predators being over three times more abundant. Daily ration estimates for R. gigas at both sites were only 2% body carbon per day. These low values contrast with its smaller competirors, whose rations were in the range 5.6 to 27%.     

Applying mathematical programming to reserve selection

During the last 10–15 years heuristic methods have been developed for problems in optimal reserve selection. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that heuristics will find optimal solutions. In recognizing this limitation, analysts have formulated reserve selection problems as set covering problems, for which matrix reduction and integer (0/1) programming can be used to find optimal solutions. In this paper we restate the set covering formulation and review solution techniques. A new 0/1 programming model, which is a generalization of the set covering model, is then presented and applied to a hypothetical reserve selection problem. Objectives of minimizing the number of sites selected and maximizing the number of species represented are addressed. Solutions which characterize the tradeoffs between these objectives provide a rich set of information for planners and decision makers. Applications of mathematical programming to related problems in land use planning and forestry are also discussed.     

Characterizing soils for hazardous waste site assessments

This paper provides a review and justification of the minimum data needed to characterize soils for hazardous waste site assessments and to comply with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA). Scientists and managers within the regulatory agency and the liable party need to know what are the important soil characteristics needed to make decisions about risk assessment, what areas need remediation and what remediation options are available. If all parties involved in characterizing a hazardous waste site can agree on the required soils data set prior to starting a site investigation, data can be collected in a more efficient and less costly manner. Having the proper data will aid in reaching decisions on how to address concerns at, and close-out, hazardous waste sites.This paper was prepared to address two specific concerns related to soil characterization for CERCLA remedial response. The first concern is the applicability of traditional soil classification methods to CERCLA soil characterization. The second is the identification of soil characterization data type required for CERCLA risk assessment and analysis of remedial alternatives. These concerns are related, in that the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process addresses both. The DQO process was developed in part to assist CERCLA decision-makers in identifying the data types, data quality, and data quantity required to support decisions that must be made during the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process. Data Quality Objectives for Remedial Response Activities: Development Process (US EPA, 1987a) is a guidebook on developing DQOs. This process as it relates to CERCLA soil characterization is discussed in the Data Quality Objective Section of this paper.     

Using Multiple Antibiotic Resistance and land use characteristics to determine sources of fecal coliform bacterial pollution

Multiple Antibiotic Resistance (MAR) analysis and regression modeling techniques were used to identify surface water areas impacted by fecal pollution from human sources, and to determine the effects of land use on fecal pollution in Murrells Inlet, a small, urbanized, high-salinity estuary located between Myrtle Beach and Georgetown, South Carolina. MAR analysis was performed to identify areas in the estuary that are impacted by human-source fecal pollution. Additionally, regression analysis was performed to determine if an association exists between land use and fecal coliform densities over the ten-year period from 1989 to 1998. Land-use variables were derived using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and were used in the regression analysis.MAR analyses were conducted by comparing the frequency and patterns of antibiotic resistance found in Escherichia coli isolates derived from surface water samples and from sewage sources in the Murrells Inlet sewage collection system. The MAR results suggest that the majority of the fecal pollution detected in the Murrells Inlet estuary may be from non-human sources, including fecal coliforms isolated from areas in close proximity to high densities of active septic tanks.A MAR Index, which measures the frequency of antibiotic resistance, was calculated for each of twenty-three water samples and nine sewage samples. The antibiotic resistance pattern comparisons were performed using cluster analysis. Although the MAR indices indicated that several surface water sites had potential human-source contamination, the cluster analysis suggests that only one sampling site had MAR patterns that were similar to those found in the sewage samples. This site was in close proximity to several large pleasure boats as well as a sewage collection system lift station, but was not near areas with active septic tanks. The results of the regression analysis also suggest that sewage sources and rainfall runoff from urbanized areas may contribute to fecal pollution in the estuary.