A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Greenlandic water and sanitation systems—identifying system constellation and challenges

A good water supply and wastewater management is essential for a local sustainable community development. This is emphasized in the new global goals of the UN Sustainable Development, where the sixth objective is to: “Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all” (United Nations 2015). This obviously raises the question of how this can be achieved considering the very different conditions and cultures around the globe. This article presents the Greenlandic context and elucidates the current Greenland water supply system and wastewater management system from a socio-technical approach, focusing on the geographic, climatic and cultural challenges. The article identifies a diverse set of system constellations in different parts of Greenland and concludes with a discussion of health and quality of life implications.     

Sensitivity analysis of a parameterization of the stomatal component of the DO3SE model for Quercus ilex to estimate ozone fluxes

A sensitivity analysis of a proposed parameterization of the stomatal conductance (g(s)) module of the European ozone deposition model (DO(3)SE) for Quercus ilex was performed. The performance of the model was tested against measured g(s) in the field at three sites in Spain. The best fit of the model was found for those sites, or during those periods, facing no or mild stress conditions, but a worse performance was found under severe drought or temperature stress, mostly occurring at continental sites. The best performance was obtained when both f(phen) and f(SWP) were included. A local parameterization accounting for the lower temperatures recorded in winter and the higher water shortage at the continental sites resulted in a better performance of the model. The overall results indicate that two different parameterizations of the model are needed, one for marine-influenced sites and another one for continental sites.     

Quantitative and Molecular Genetic Variation in Captive Cotton-Top Tamarins (Saguinus oedipus)

Most genetic surveys of captive and endangered populations are carried out with single gene characters bearing no direct relationship to life history or other features for which genetic variation needs to be maintained. Quantitative genetic estimates of heritable variation for life-history traits may be a more direct and appropriate measure of genetic variation for some conservation purposes. Furthermore, recent theoretical and empirical results indicate that genetic variation measured on these two levels may not be concordant. We analyzed heterozygosity at 41 allozyme loci and heritability for body weight in captive cotton-top tamarins ( Saguinus oedipus ) from the Marmoset Research Center of the Oak Ridge Associated Universities in order to compare these two levels of genetic variation. Cotton-top tamarins are a highly endangered species native to Colombia. Many animals currently reside in research facilities and zoological parks. A total of 106 animals were used in the isozyme survey, while data on 364 animals contributed to the quantitative genetic study of body weight. We found a very low average heterozygosity ( H = 1%) for this colony. Body weight was moderately and significantly heritable ( h ² = 35%). This heritability is within the normal range for natural animal populations. The finding of biologically significant levels of heritability in a population with abnormally low allozyme heterozygosity illustrates the point that low levels of allozyme heterozygosity should not be taken as an indication of overall lack of genetic variation in important quantitative characters such as life-history traits. Genetic variation required for adaptation of species to future environmental challenges can exist despite low levels of enzyme heterozygosity.     

Making Capacity Building Meaningful: A Framework for Strategic Action

This paper aims to give practical meaning to ‘capacity building’ through (a) identifying a suite of practical measures, such as mentoring or best practice guidelines, that have been shown to or are considered to build human, social, institutional, and economic capital; (b) placing these measures within a broader systems framework; and (c) exploring stakeholder feedback on specific measures to inform framework implementation. The 29 measures described provide actors, whether government or nongovernment, with a suite of practical investment choices for building capacity. These measures are then clustered into eight groups according to their primary purpose and placed within a systems framework. The framework provides a tool for actors with responsibilities for or an interest in capacity building to inform more holistic and strategic targeting of effort and investment. Stakeholder feedback gathered through surveys and workshops is subsequently reported to further inform implementation of specific measures within the framework’s eight groupings. The framework presented may be built upon through the identification and inclusion of further capacity building measures. The research is conducted within the context of decentralized governance arrangements for natural resource management (NRM), with specific focus on Australia’s recently formalized 56 NRM regions and their community-based governing boards as an informative arena of learning. Application of the framework is explored in the Australian setting through the identification and comparison of measures supported and most preferred by four major stakeholder groups, namely board members, regional NRM organization staff, policy/research interests, and Indigenous interests. The research also examines stakeholder perceptions of capacity issues, and whether these issues are likely to be addressed through implementing their preferred measures.

Mobilization of aluminium and deposition on fish gills during sea salt episodes--catchment liming as countermeasure

Episodic events may be critical with respect to aluminium (Al) toxicity in moderately acidified salmon rivers. The present work demonstrates that sea salt episodes enhance the toxicity of Al in acidic rivers. The documented sea salt episode (300 [micro sign]M Cl) mobilized positively charged Al species (0.4 to 1.1 [micro sign]M Al(i)), enhanced the Al accumulation on fish gills (0.9 to 10 [micro sign]mol g(-1) dw) and caused increased stress responses (6 to15 mM blood glucose) in fish. Accumulated Al on gills remained high several days after the episode. The presented results are based on a six-week field study in two tributary rivers on the west coast of Norway. Changes in the river water qualities and Al speciation were followed using in situ fractionation techniques. Al accumulation on gills and stress responses were followed for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) kept in tanks continually exposed to the changing water quality. The potential mobilization of Al from the two catchments was studied by extracting soils with diluted seawater (salinity of 3). To counteract Al toxicity, one of the tributary catchments has been limed. The potential mobility of Al by sea salt was lower in limed soils compared to acid soils, and the Al deposition on fish gills (<3.5 [micro sign]mol g(-1) dw) and associated stress responses stayed low during the sea salt episode in the river draining the limed catchment. Thus, for acid river systems in coastal areas, catchment liming should be considered as a useful countermeasure for Al toxicity.     

Application of the benthic index of biotic integrity to environmental monitoring in Chesapeake Bay

The Chesapeake Bay benthic index of biotic integrity (B-IBI) was developed to assess benthic community health and environmental quality in Chesapeake Bay. The B-IBI provides Chesapeake Bay monitoring programs with a uniform tool with which to characterize bay-wide benthic community condition and assess the health of the Bay. A probability-based design permits unbiased annual estimates of areal degradation within the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries with quantifiable precision. However, of greatest interest to managers is the identification of problem areas most in need of restoration. Here we apply the B-IBI to benthic data collected in the Bay since 1994 to assess benthic community degradation by Chesapeake Bay Program segment and water depth. We used a new B-IBI classification system that improves the reliability of the estimates of degradation. Estimates were produced for 67 Chesapeake Bay Program segments. Greatest degradation was found in areas that are known to experience hypoxia or show toxic contamination, such as the mesohaline portion of the Potomac River, the Patapsco River, and the Maryland mainstem. Logistic regression models revealed increased probability of degraded benthos with depth for the lower Potomac River, Patapsco River, Nanticoke River, lower York River, and the Maryland mainstem. Our assessment of degradation by segment and water depth provided greater resolution of relative condition than previously available, and helped define the extent of degradation in Chesapeake Bay.     

Measurements of fractionated gaseous mercury concentrations over northwestern and central Europe, 1995-99

Although it makes up only a few per cent. of total gaseous mercury (TGM) in the atmosphere, the fraction of oxidised (divalent) mercury plays a major role in the biogeochemical cycle of mercury due to its high affinity for water and surfaces. Quantitative knowledge of this fraction present in mixing ratios in the parts-per-10(15) (ppq) range is currently very scarce. This work is based on approximately 220 data for divalent gaseous mercury (DGM) collected during 1995-99 in ambient air. Over the course of the measurements, the sampling and analytical methods were modified and improved. This is described here in detail and includes transition from wet leaching and reduction procedures to thermo-reductive desorption, the use of annular as well as tubular denuders and adoption of an automated sampling system. The concentration of DGM exhibited a strong seasonal behaviour in contrast to atomic gaseous mercury, with low values in winter and maximum values in summer. The DGM/TGM ratios were frequently found to be below the detection limit (< or = 1%) and in the range 1-5%. A trend of diurnal DGM patterns was observed and implies photolytically induced sources. Scavenging of DGM during rain events was also noticed.     

monitoring bioaccumulation of contaminants in the belted kingfisher (ceryle alcyon)

The belted kingfisher (Ceryle alcyon), acommon piscivore in the eastern United States, hasbecome a common endpoint in ecological riskassessments (ERA) because of their high consumptionof potentially contaminated aquatic prey. Whilebioaccumulation data and biosurveys may be used tosupport conclusions of ERAs for kingfishers, thereare currently no published data on contaminantconcentrations in kingfishers. Additionally,methods available for collecting biological samples(e.g., feathers, eggs, food debris, etc.) fromkingfisher burrows can be detrimental to thereproductive success of the birds. We present amethod for obtaining samples from burrows during orfollowing the nesting season. The method wasapplied to kingfisher burrows on the Oak RidgeReservation (ORR) in eastern Tennessee. Feathers,eggshells, and nestlings were collected from burrows and analyzed. In addition, carcasses ofthree adult kingfishers found dead on the ORR wereanalyzed. Metals and radionuclides were accumulatedby both juvenile and adult birds. Body burdens ofcadmium, lead, and cesium-137 in adult birds were belowlevels associated with toxicity. Concentrations of selenium and mercury were observed at potentiallytoxic levels. Contaminants in eggshells andnestling feathers indicate exposure, however, thereis insufficient information to evaluate thetoxicological significance of this contamination.National Laboratory Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed for the U.S. Department of Energy by Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corp. under contract DE-AC05-96OR22464