Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

Mikrobielle Sanierung von 2,4,6-Trinitrotoluol (TNT) kontaminierten Böden

Within the limits of a feasability study abouton-site bioremediation methods for TNT-contaminated soils, composting was chosen as a very promising and cheap method. This method was critically compared with those described in the literature and was primarily rated under ecotoxicological aspects. The investigated location is the former munition plant «Tanne» in the aerea of Clausthal-Zellerfeld in Lower Saxony, Germany. To estimate the autochtonic microflora, we assessed the number of aerobic heterotrophic bacteria and determined their respiration activity in soils. In addition, we isolated bacteria and examined their capacity to metabolize TNTin vitro. Both the amount of autochtonic microrganisms (4.7×10⁸ to 1.2×10¹⁰ colony forming units (cfu)/kg dryweight) as well as their respiration activity did not correlate with the concentrations of nitrotoluenes in the soils. With high contaminated soil (20 g TNT/kg dry weight) we carried out a small compost in the range of 10 liters. During 28 days of composting TNT-concentration decrease over 90% and only minor amounts of monoaminodinitrotoluenes were generated. However, an acidic pretreatment of the compost material at the end of the reaction showed that TNT could be partially resolved under these extreme conditions and that an ecotoxicological risk may still exist. Possible changes in the realization of the composting process in order to make sure that the contaminants are savely bound to the humin matrix are discussed.     

DNA sequence evidence for speciation,paraphyly and a Mesozoic dispersal of cancellothyridid articulate brachiopods

Because the classification of extant and fossil articulate brachiopods is based largely upon shell characters observable in fossils, it identifies morphotaxa whose biological status can, in practice, best be inferred from estimates of genetic divergence. Allozyme polymorphism and restriction fragment length polymorphism of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA RFLP) have been used to show that nuclear and mitochondrial genetic divergence between samples of the cancellothyridid brachiopods Terebratulina septentrionalis from Canada and T. retusa from Europe is compatible with biological speciation, but the genetic distances obtained were biased by methodological limitations. Here, we report estimates of divergence in 12S rDNA mitochondrial sequences within and between samples of these brachiopods. The sequence-based genetic distance between these samples (5.98ǂ.07% SE) is at least 10 times greater than within them and, since they also differ in a complex life-history trait, their species status is considered to be securely established. Divergence levels between 12S rDNA genes of three other cancellothyridids, T. unguicula from Alaska, T. crossei from near Japan, and Cancellothyris hedleyi from near Australia are higher than between the two North Atlantic species, and the mean nucleotide distance between all these cancellothyrids is similar to the mean distance between species of Littorina (Mollusca: Gastropoda). Sequences of both 12S and 16S genes from cancellothyridids and other short-looped brachiopod species show neither saturation nor lineage-specific rate differences and, when analysed with different outgroups, either separately or together, yield one unexpected, but well-supported, tree with Alaskan T. unguicula basal and C. hedleyi nested within Terebratulina, i.e. these genera are paraphyletic. A geologically dated divergence between Antarctic and New Zealand species of the short-looped brachiopod Liothyrella is used to calibrate the rate of 12S divergence at ca. 0.1% per million years (MY), and this rate is used to infer that T. septentrionalis and T. retusa have been diverging for ca. 60 MY and that they and T. unguicula have been diverging from their last common ancestor for ca. 100 MY. This indicates a Mesozoic origin for the present-day distribution of cancellothyridids and the basal position of T. unguicula suggests a possible North Pacific centre of origin, with separate Atlantic and Pacific radiations. The inclusion of Cancellothyris within Terebratulina also shows that adult shell characters such as umbo, foramen and symphytium shape, whilst probably indispensible for the practical classification of fossils, are not reliable guides to genealogy.     

Abschätzung der Quecksilberexposition

A site contaminated by mercury serves as an example for evaluating the environmental medicine aspects of mercury emissions on individuals living in the surroundings. Based on defined, conventional scenarios, estimations of internal exposure were made for seven different age groups and with regard to such contact media as soil, air and food. Using human monitoring methods, an attempt was made to compare the epidemiological results. The site-specific and pathway-specific estimation of exposure is based on a multitude of various samples as well as on measurements of concentrations in the compartments relevant for intake. As based upon rigid guideline values, both these calculations and the epidemiological investigations reveal a slight increase in the mercury exposure.     

Small queens in the ant Ectatomma tuberculatum: a new case of social parasitism

Social parasites exploit the worker force of colonies of other social insects to rear their own young. Social parasitism occurs in several Hymenoptera and is particularly common in several tribes of the ant subfamilies Myrmicinae and Formicinae. Here, we document the occurrence of miniaturized queens (microgynes) in colonies of Ectatomma tuberculatum, an ant belonging to the subfamily Ectatomminae. Behavioral observations and genetic analyses show that microgynes concentrate their reproductive efforts almost exclusively on the production of sexual offspring (microgynes and males), whereas the regular, large queens (macrogynes) produce workers in addition to sexuals. According to mitochondrial and nuclear markers, gene flow between microgynes and macrogynes is extremely limited. Whereas the co-occurrence of microgynes and macrogynes in the related species Ectatomma ruidum constitutes an intraspecific polymorphism associated with alternative dispersal tactics, microgynes found in colonies of E. tuberculatum appear to be a distinct species and to represent the first case of social parasitism in the poneromorph subfamilies of ants.     

Worker rank, reproductive status and cuticular hydrocarbon signature in the ant, Pachycondyla cf. inversa

Workers in de-queened colonies of the neotropical ant, Pachycondyla cf. inversa, form linear or near-linear dominance hierarchies by violent antennation and biting. In these rank orders, social status and ovarian activity are on average highly correlated. Whereas the presence of a fertile queen appears to be sufficient to prevent workers from laying eggs, fertile workers do not completely control reproduction by their nestmates, suggesting that workers are able to differentiate between an egg-laying queen and an egg-laying worker. Here we show that the composition of cuticular hydrocarbons of egg-laying workers is quantitatively and qualitatively different from that of non-laying workers and resembles the hydrocarbon blend of the queen but does not completely match it. Furthermore, using discriminant analysis, it was possible to distinguish workers with four different classes of ovarian development based only on their cuticular hydrocarbon profiles. Fertility-associated changes in cuticular hydrocarbons may play an important role in the behavioural regulation of reproduction in this ant.     

Prenatal prediction of childhood-onset spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) in Turkish families

Childhood-onset spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is one of the most common neurodegenerative genetic disorders. SMN1 is the SMA-determining gene deleted or mutated in the majority of SMA cases. There is no effective cure or treatment for this disease yet. Thus, the availability of prenatal testing is important. Here we report prenatal prediction for 68 fetuses in 63 Turkish SMA families using direct deletion analysis of the SMN1 gene by restriction digestion. The genotype of the index case was known in 40 families (Group A) but unknown in the remaining 23 families (Group B). A total of ten fetuses were predicted to be affected. Eight of these fetuses were derived from Group A and two of these fetuses were from Group B families. Two fetuses from the same family in Group A had the SMNhyb1 gene in addition to homozygous deletion of the NAIP gene. One fetus from Group A was homozygously deleted for only exon 8 of the SMN2 gene, and further analysis showed the presence of both the SMN1 and SMNhyb1 genes but not the SMN2 gene. In addition, one carrier with a homozygous deletion of only exon 8 of the SMN1 gene was detected to have a SMNhyb2 gene, which was also found in the fetus. To our knowledge, these are the first prenatal cases with SMNhyb genes. Follow-up studies demonstrated that the prenatal predictions and the phenotype of the fetuses correlated well in 33 type I pregnancies demonstrating that a careful molecular analysis of the SMN genes is very useful in predicting the phenotype of the fetus in families at risk for SMA. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Globaler und regionaler Klimawandel

The interdependences between climate and humanity are becoming increasingly apparent, which makes climatology an upto-date and strongly discussed subject. Its task is to identify and examine relatively long-term, regional and global, natural and anthropogenic developments. A global, long-term view reveals a striking increase of surfacenear air temperature since the beginning of the industrial age. On a regional scale, trends differ considerably, but also Germany shows an apparent trend of increasing temperature and precipitation. The development of extreme events is more difficult to judge; the heat summer of 2003 in Europe, however, is among the phenomena that are likely to occur more frequently in the future. The influence of different natural and anthropogenic factors on the climate is expressed, amongst others, through their radiative forcings. Greenhouse gases emitted from anthropogenic activities are of particular significance since their concentration in the atmosphere keeps increasing. Mathematical modeling has made it possible to reconstruct the climate development of the past with increasing precision. The currently observed warming can only be comprehended by assuming anthropogenic influences. For the future development different scenarios have been calculated in order to deduce strategies for necessary action.