Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

Improvements on Flood Alleviation in Germany: Lessons Learned from the Elbe Flood in August 2002

The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a “Lessons Learned” study that was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Lae nder) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for “unthinkable extreme events” beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed.     

Aerosol chemical characteristics of an island site in the Bay of Bengal (Bhola-Bangladesh)

Aerosol constituents (elemental carbon, organic carbon, soluble ions including organic acids, and selected trace metals) were investigated from samples of a field campaign taking place at Bhola Island in the Bay of Bengal (Bangladesh). The campaign took place in the pre-monsoon season (May 2001) using low volume samplers. Carbonaceous material comprised the majority of the analysed components. The average concentrations of EC and OC were 2.8 and 4.6 microg m(-3), respectively. Oxalic acid was the most abundant dicarboxylic acid (average 268 ng m(-3)) followed by malonic and malic acid. The contribution of carboxylic acids-carbon to organic carbon was 2.0%. Average concentrations observed for sulfate and nitrate were 3.7 microg m(-3) and 1.5 microg m(-3). Two different types of aerosol were identified at the rural background site on Bhola Island during southerly synoptic flow by means of trajectory analysis: air masses were transported from the Bay of Bengal to the sampling site in all cases. However, during "Period 1" they experienced longer residence times over the Indian Ocean, while the "Period 2" trajectories came along the Indian coast or passed over the Indian continent. During Period 1 the concentration levels of soluble ions were a factor of 4-6 lower than during Period 2. The concentrations of EC, OC and K differed less than a factor of 1.5 between the two periods. The Period 1 aerosol showed similarities to the haze layers observed during winter-monsoon conditions south of India during the INDOEX experiment. Based on EC/TC and K/EC ratios we find that around 80% of the carbonaceous aerosol from Period 1 in Bhola is from fossil fuel and only around 50% from Period 2. Absolute concentrations of carbonaceous species, soluble ions and trace metals indicate that the background site on Bhola Island is affected by emissions from urbanized regions of Southeast Asia.     

The effect of catch crops on sulphate leaching and availability of S in the succeeding crop on sandy loam soil in Denmark

Sulphate leaching losses may reduce the long-term possibility of maintaining the S supply of crops in low input farming systems. The ability of catch crops (Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam), winter rape (Brassica napus L.) and fodder radish (Raphanus sativus L.)) to reduce soil sulphate concentrations in autumn and make it available to a succeeding crop was investigated in 1996–1998 on sandy loam soil in Denmark. All catch crops reduced soil sulphate concentrations in the autumn compared to bare soil. Especially, the cruciferous catch crops had the ability to deplete efficiently soil sulphate levels and thus, reduce the sulphate leaching potential. The S uptake in aboveground catch crop was 8, 22 and 36 kg S per ha for ryegrass, winter rape and fodder radish, respectively. In the following spring, sulphate levels of the autumn bare soil were low in the top 0.5 m and a peak of sulphate was found at 0.75–1 m depth. In contrast, where a fodder radish catch crop had been grown, high sulphate levels were present in the top 0.5 m, but only small amounts of sulphate were found at 0.5–1.5 m depth. In spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), that followed catch crops, S concentrations at heading and maturity revealed that the availability of soil S increased following winter rape and fodder radish, whereas there were indications that following ryegrass, the S availability was reduced compared to bare soil. This initial study showed that catch crops have a high potential for reducing sulphate leaching and may be used to synchronise S availability with plant demand in a crop rotation.     

Suitability of passive sampling for the monitoring of pharmaceuticals in Finnish surface waters

The occurrence of five pharmaceuticals, consisting of four anti-inflammatory and one antiepileptic drug, was studied by passive sampling and grab sampling in northern Lake Päijänne and River Vantaa. The passive sampling was performed by using Chemcatcher® sampler with a SDB-RPS Empore disk as a receiving phase. In Lake Päijänne, the sampling was conducted during summer 2013 at four locations near the discharge point of a wastewater treatment plant and in the years 2013 and 2015 at four locations along River Vantaa. The samples were analyzed by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) in the multiple reaction monitoring mode. The concentrations of carbamazepine, diclofenac, ibuprofen, ketoprofen, and naproxen in Lake Päijänne determined by passive sampling ranged between 1.4–2.9 ng L^?1, 15–35 ng L^?1, 13–31 ng L^?1, 16–27 ng L^?1, and 3.3–32 ng L^?1, respectively. Similarly, the results in River Vantaa ranged between 1.2–40 ng L^?1, 15–65 ng L^?1, 13–33 ng L^?1, 16–31 ng L^?1, and 3.3–6.4 ng L^?1. The results suggest that the Chemcatcher passive samplers are suitable for detecting pharmaceuticals in lake and river waters.     

The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modeling Approaches at the Mulde River,Germany

In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC) data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must, however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling aspects.     

Wildfire Risk Management on a Landscape with Public and Private Ownership: Who Pays for Protection?

Wildfire, like many natural hazards, affects large landscapes with many landowners and the risk individual owners face depends on both individual and collective protective actions. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit game theoretic model to examine the strategic interaction between landowners’ hazard mitigation decisions on a landscape with public and private ownership. We find that in areas where ownership is mixed, the private landowner performs too little fuel treatment as they “free ride”—capture benefits without incurring the costs—on public protection, while areas with public land only are under-protected. Our central result is that this pattern of fuel treatment comes at a cost to society because public resources focus in areas with mixed ownership, where local residents capture the benefits, and are not available for publicly managed land areas that create benefits for society at large. We also find that policies that encourage public expenditures in areas with mixed ownership, such as the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 and public liability for private values, subsidize the residents who choose to locate in the high-risk areas at the cost of lost natural resource benefits for others.