A life-cycle comparison of alternative automobile fuels

We examine the life cycles of gasoline, diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), and ethanol (C2H5OH)-fueled internal combustion engine (ICE) automobiles. Port and direct injection and spark and compression ignition engines are examined. We investigate diesel fuel from both petroleum and biosources as well as C2H5OH from corn, herbaceous bio-mass, and woody biomass. The baseline vehicle is a gasoline-fueled 1998 Ford Taurus. We optimize the other fuel/powertrain combinations for each specific fuel as a part of making the vehicles comparable to the baseline in terms of range, emissions level, and vehicle lifetime. Life-cycle calculations are done using the economic input-output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) software; fuel cycles and vehicle end-of-life stages are based on published model results. We find that recent advances in gasoline vehicles, the low petroleum price, and the extensive gasoline infrastructure make it difficult for any alternative fuel to become commercially viable. The most attractive alternative fuel is compressed natural gas because it is less expensive than gasoline, has lower regulated pollutant and toxics emissions, produces less greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and is available in North America in large quantities. However, the bulk and weight of gas storage cylinders required for the vehicle to attain a range comparable to that of gasoline vehicles necessitates a redesign of the engine and chassis. Additional natural gas transportation and distribution infrastructure is required for large-scale use of natural gas for transportation. Diesel engines are extremely attractive in terms of energy efficiency, but expert judgment is divided on whether these engines will be able to meet strict emissions standards, even with reformulated fuel. The attractiveness of direct injection engines depends on their being able to meet strict emissions standards without losing their greater efficiency. Biofuels offer lower GHG emissions, are sustainable, and reduce the demand for imported fuels. Fuels from food sources, such as biodiesel from soybeans and C2H5OH from corn, can be attractive only if the co-products are in high demand and if the fuel production does not diminish the food supply. C2H5OH from herbaceous or woody biomass could replace the gasoline burned in the light-duty fleet while supplying electricity as a co-product. While it costs more than gasoline, bioethanol would be attractive if the price of gasoline doubled, if significant reductions in GHG emissions were required, or if fuel economy regulations for gasoline vehicles were tightened.     

2,3,7,8,-四氯苯噁英对NIH小鼠早期妊娠和生殖激素的影响

用不同剂量的2,3,7,8 四氯苯二英(2,3,7,8 tetrachlorodibenzopdioxin,TCDD)对小鼠胚胎附植数量和生长发育情况进行剂量反应评估,分析TCDD对假孕小鼠子宫蜕膜生长状况的影响以及比较胚胎种植前后染毒效果.所有样本采集血液,测定母体血清雌二醇和孕酮的浓度变化.结果表明,50和100ng·(kg·d)-1TCDD处理的孕鼠,胚胎附植数量明显减少(P<0 05),着床后胚胎出现发育迟缓,质量减轻(P<0 05);同等剂量TCDD处理的假孕小鼠,子宫蜕膜生长受到了极显著的抑制(P<0 01);种植前后染毒效果比较发现种植前期染毒的小鼠胚胎对TCDD更为敏感.母体血清雌二醇浓度随剂量和染毒时段有不同程度的升高,而孕酮浓度则极显著下降(P<0 01).由此表明低剂量TCDD可能通过对生殖激素的干扰,强烈影响NIH小鼠妊娠早期生殖生理状态和着床后胚胎的发育.实验同时证明小鼠也可作为早期妊娠毒物研究的供试动物,用以筛选动物和人类早期妊娠的有害化合物.     

Ways of improving the management of environmental risks

From the public's discovery of environmental quality in the late 1960s to the present, there has been increasing recognition that a more systematic approach is required to manage risks and to achieve the gains at low cost. Such a systematic approach must begin with risk identification, then go on to risk assessment, consideration of management options, a decision analysis of the options, and an examination of strategies for reducing loss. One of the most difficult aspects of environmental risk management is setting goals. There is a tendency to engage in rhetoric about zero risks and a pristine environment. However, moving toward more realistic goals requires consideration of what is an acceptable risk level. This level cannot be defined without knowing the benefits that come with the risk and the costs of reducing the risk. More generally, the criteria for selecting a risk management strategy include the residual level of risk, efficiency in reducing risk, equity, administrative simplicity, and public acceptability. A number of frameworks are currently used by U.S. regulatory agencies to manage risk: no-risk, risk-risk, technology-based standards, risk-benefit, cost-effectiveness, regulatory budget, and benefit-cost analysis. In specifying that an agency must use one of these frameworks, the U.S. Congress is implicitly specifying the goals for risk reduction. It appears to be easier for the U.S. Congress to specify a framework than a goal. Some of the nonregulatory means of managing risk include the market, and legal mechanisms. These risk management institutions have been effective and are a necessary part of any risk management program.     

Exhibition

The objective of this critical review is to evaluate and summarize the literature on economic tools used to improve environmental decision making. Environmental decisions are complicated by pervasive uncertainty, and the lack of consensus on goals and on tradeoffs, such as air versus water pollution and versus loss of coal mining jobs. Five decision frameworks are used by regulatory agencies to simplify decision making. Congress’ choice of a decision framework designates the amount of data and analysis that will be required and the range and depth of social values that must be considered. Economic incentives have worked well for phasing out lead in gasoline, for increasing recycling and for reducing the volume of municipal solid waste. Congress has mandated incentives for acid rain and CFCs, and several countries have implemented carbon taxes to abate greenhouse gas emissions. Economic tools have become more central to the analysis and implementation of environmental policies; their role should continue to increase. We conclude that economic tools are extremely valuable, although their application is difficult.     

Fungicide leaching from golf greens: effects of root zone composition and surfactant use

Soil water repellency in golf putting greens may induce preferential "finger flow," leading to enhanced leaching of surface applied fungicides. We examined the effects of root zone composition, treatment with a non-ionic surfactant, and the use of the fungicide iprodion or a combination of azoxystrobin and propiconazole on soil water repellency, soil water content distributions, fungicide leaching, and turf quality during 1 yr. Soil water repellency was measured using the water drop penetration time (WDPT) test and tension infiltrometers. Our study was made on a 3-yr-old experimental green seeded with creeping bentgrass (Agrostis stolonifera L.) 'Penn A-4' at Landvik in southeast Norway. The facility consists of 16 lysimeters with two different root zone materials: (i) straight sand (1% gravel, 96% sand, 3% silt and clay, 4 g kg(-1) organic matter) (SS) and (ii) straight sand mixed with garden compost to an organic matter content of 21 g kg(-1) (Green Mix [GM]). Surfactant treatment resulted in 96% lower average WDPTs at 1 cm depth, three times higher water infiltration rates at the soil surface, and reduced spatial variation in soil water contents. Fungicide leaching was close to zero for the GM lysimeters probably due to stronger sorption. Concentrations in the drainage water from SS lysimeters often exceeded surface water guideline values for all three fungicides, but surfactant treatment dramatically reduced fungicide leaching from these lysimeters. In autumn and winter, surfactant-treated plots were more infected with fungal diseases probably because of higher water content in the turfgrass thatch layer.     

Closing Remarks

Considerable attention has been paid in recent years to photochemical smog pollution close to the earth's surface and to stratospheric ozone depletion. There is reason to suspect that the next round of scientific concern will be devoted to the perturbations in the “free troposphere.” Tropospheric ozone has been building up in many regions of the northern hemisphere. Ozone changes in the upper troposphere will exert a considerable impact on global warming. This could affect moisture levels, cloud amount and distribution, precipitation, and atmospheric dynamics on different scales.

This paper analyzes: (1) the physical and chemical processes contributing to changes in tropospheric ozone concentration; (2) the observational evidence of previous ozone change; and (3) results drawn from computer modelling of past and future radiative forcing caused by rising ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere.

The solar and longwave radiative model developed by Wang et al. (1991) was used for calculating the change in radiative forcing to the troposphere-surface system that can be ascribed to changing concentrations in ozone and other greenhouse gases. Nitric oxide emission from aircraft are a prime suspect for the observed increases in upper tropospheric ozone. The inference can be drawn that a radiative forcing of 0.2 to 0.35 Wm^-2 will result from a doubling of aircraft emissions over the next two decades. This will amount to 10 to 25 percent of the radiative forcing attributable to CO₂ alone for the same period. The effect of doubling aircraft emissions will increase as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover from the recent buildup of harmful chlorofluorocarbons. A large fraction of the radiative forcing that occurred during the 1970 to 1990 period can be attributed to increases in tropospheric ozone as opposed to increases in other greenhouse gases.     

Effect of the fine fraction of particulate matter versus the coarse mass and other pollutants on daily mortality in Santiago, Chile

Daily counts of non-accidental deaths in Santiago, Chile, from 1988 to 1996 were regressed on six air pollutants--fine particles (PM2.5), coarse particles (PM10-2.5), CO, SO2, NO2, and O3. Controlling for seasonal and meteorological conditions was done using three different models--a generalized linear model, a generalized additive model, and a generalized additive model on previously filtered data. Single- and two-pollutant models were tested for lags of 1-5 days and the average of the previous 2-5 days. The increase in mortality associated with the mean levels of air pollution varied from 4 to 11%, depending on the pollutants and the way season of the year was considered. The results were not sensitive to the modeling approaches, but different effects for warmer and colder months were found. Fine particles were more important than coarse particles in the whole year and in winter, but not in summer. NO2 and CO were also significantly associated with daily mortality, as was O3 in the warmer months. No consistent effect was observed for SO2. Given particle composition in Santiago, these results suggest that combustion-generated pollutants, especially from motor vehicles, may be associated with increased mortality. Temperature was closely associated with mortality. High temperatures led to deaths on the same day, while low temperatures lead to deaths from 1 to 4 days later.     

Effect of the Fine Fraction of Particulate Matter versus the Coarse Mass and Other Pollutants on Daily Mortality in Santiago,Chile

ABSTRACT

Daily counts of non-accidental deaths in Santiago, Chile, from 1988 to 1996 were regressed on six air pollutants— fine particles (PM_2.5), coarse particles (PM_10–2.5), CO, SO₂, NO₂, and O₃. Controlling for seasonal and meteorological conditions was done using three different models— a generalized linear model, a generalized additive model, and a generalized additive model on previously filtered data. Single- and two-pollutant models were tested for lags of 1-5 days and the average of the previous 2-5 days.

The increase in mortality associated with the mean levels of air pollution varied from 4 to 11%, depending on the pollutants and the way season of the year was considered. The results were not sensitive to the modeling approaches, but different effects for warmer and colder months were found. Fine particles were more important than coarse particles in the whole year and in winter, but not in summer. NO₂ and CO were also significantly associated with daily mortality, as was O₃ in the warmer months. No consistent effect was observed for SO₂. Given particle composition in Santiago, these results suggest that combustion-generated pollutants, especially from motor vehicles, may be associated with increased mortality. Temperature was closely associated with mortality. High temperatures led to deaths on the same day, while low temperatures lead to deaths from 1 to 4 days later.     

A Life-Cycle Comparison of Alternative Automobile Fuels

ABSTRACT

We examine the life cycles of gasoline, diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), and ethanol (C₂H₅OH)-fueled internal combustion engine (ICE) automobiles. Port and direct injection and spark and compression ignition engines are examined. We investigate diesel fuel from both petroleum and biosources as well as C₂H₅OH from corn, herbaceous bio-mass, and woody biomass. The baseline vehicle is a gasoline-fueled 1998 Ford Taurus. We optimize the other fuel/powertrain combinations for each specific fuel as a part of making the vehicles comparable to the baseline in terms of range, emissions level, and vehicle lifetime. Life-cycle calculations are done using the economic input-output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) software; fuel cycles and vehicle end-of-life stages are based on published model results.

We find that recent advances in gasoline vehicles, the low petroleum price, and the extensive gasoline infrastructure make it difficult for any alternative fuel to become commercially viable. The most attractive alternative fuel is compressed natural gas because it is less expensive than gasoline, has lower regulated pollutant and toxics emissions, produces less greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and is available in North America in large quantities. However, the bulk and weight of gas storage cylinders required for the vehicle to attain a range comparable to that of gasoline vehicles necessitates a redesign of the engine and chassis. Additional natural gas transportation and distribution infrastructure is required for large-scale use of natural gas for transportation. Diesel engines are extremely attractive in terms of energy efficiency, but expert judgment is divided on whether these engines will be able to meet strict emissions standards, even with reformulated fuel. The attractiveness of direct injection engines depends on their being able to meet strict emissions standards without losing their greater efficiency. Biofuels offer lower GHG emissions, are sustainable, and reduce the demand for imported fuels. Fuels from food sources, such as biodiesel from soybeans and C₂H₅OH from corn, can be attractive only if the co-products are in high demand and if the fuel production does not diminish the food supply. C₂H₅OH from herbaceous or woody biomass could replace the gasoline burned in the light-duty fleet while supplying electricity as a co-product. While it costs more than gasoline, bioethanol would be attractive if the price of gasoline doubled, if significant reductions in GHG emissions were required, or if fuel economy regulations for gasoline vehicles were tightened.