Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Safety climate

Safety climate, the objective measurement of attitudes and perceptions toward Occupational Health & Safety (OH&S) issues, has been largely ignored and measures such as lost time and frequency rate have been used to determine the efficacy of OH&S programs. Yet, it is clear that measuring the precursors of accidents identified in a safety climate analysis provides a powerful proactive management tool. This paper reports on safety climate factors found in clerical and service organizations in Australia. Concurrent validity studies are reported. In contradistinction to published studies, it is argued that safety climate factors are not stable across organizations. The significance of this for planning and assessing the efficacy of OH&S programs is discussed. It is concluded that although safety climate factors are not stable, the safety climate factor pattern identified in organizations provides a powerful management tool for designing OH&S programs.     

Aerial measurement of radioxenon concentration off the west coast of Vancouver Island following the Fukushima reactor accident

In response to the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident, on March 20th, 2011, Natural Resources Canada conducted aerial radiation surveys over water just off the west coast of Vancouver Island. Dose-rate levels were found to be consistent with background radiation, however a clear signal due to ¹³³Xe was observed. Methods to extract ¹³³Xe count rates from the measured spectra, and to determine the corresponding ¹³³Xe activity concentration, were developed. The measurements indicate that ¹³³Xe concentrations on average lie in the range of 30-70 Bq/m³.     

Locating ‘power’ in wind power planning processes: the (not so) influential role of local objectors

There have been conflicting accounts of the role and influence of local opposition within planning application outcomes for wind power developments. There is an expanding literature that considers public responses to proposed renewable energy developments and much of this suggests that public opposition is a key factor in the slow growth in renewable energy capacity. However, this paper will show that local opposition groups' power over such planning processes is very limited, and in fact extends only so far as delaying an outcome. Through a thematic content analysis of objection letters to one particular proposed wind power development, the key issues raised in connection with the development will be highlighted. Subsequently, these issues will be compared with those discussed in the official report of the planning appeals process, and it will be shown that the concerns of local objectors had little influence over the eventual verdict.     

Modelling photochemical oxidant formation, transport, deposition and exposure of terrestrial ecosystems

The chemical processes responsible for production of photochemical oxidants within the troposphere have been the subject of laboratory and field study throughout the last three decades. During the same period, models to simulate the atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition of ozone (O(3)) from individual urban sources and from regions have been developed. The models differ greatly in the complexity of chemical schemes, in the underlying meteorology and in spatial and temporal resolution. Input information from land use, spatial and temporally disaggregated emission inventories and meteorology have all improved considerably in recent years and are not fully implemented in current models. The development of control strategies in both North America and Europe to close the gaps between current exceedances of environmental limits, guide values, critical levels or loads and full compliance with these limits provides the focus for policy makers and the support agencies for the research. The models represent the only method of testing a range of control options in advance of implementation. This paper describes currently applied models of photochemical oxidant production and transport at global and regional scales and their ability to simulate individual episodes as well as photochemical oxidant climatology. The success of current models in quantifying the exposure of terrestrial surfaces and the population to potentially damaging O(3) concentrations (and dose) is examined. The analysis shows the degree to which the underlying processes and their application within the models limit the quality of the model products.     

Getting low-carbon governance right: learning from actors involved in Community Benefits

Interest in Community Benefits (CB) has increased over the past decade mainly due to the growing number of wind farms and related criticism. Because CB are a voluntary gesture by the developer, there is no standard practice or institutionalised approach for good governance of the benefits; every community has a different approach, tailored to local needs and depending on the stakeholders involved. Additionally, since CB are a rapidly emerging practice, little is known about their governance, what actors are involved and how affected communities participate in decision-making on renewable projects. Using the Farr wind farm in Scotland, one of the first to introduce CB, as a case study, this paper sheds light on the governance structures surrounding the set-up, management and allocation of funds. It also contributes to the emerging body of work regarding transparency and community participation in CB, and the extent to which these might facilitate a transition to a low-carbon future.     

An evaluation of measurement methods for organic, elemental and black carbon in ambient air monitoring sites

The carbonaceous components of Particulate Matter samples form a substantial fraction of their total mass, but their quantification depends strongly on the instruments and methods used. United Kingdom monitoring networks have provided many relevant data sets that are already in the public domain. Specifically, hourly organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) were determined at four sites between 2003 and 2007 using Rupprecht and Pattashnik (R & P) 5400 automatic instruments. Since 2007, daily OC/EC measurements have been made by manual thermo-optical analysis of filter samples using a Sunset Laboratory Carbon Aerosol Analysis instrument. In parallel, long term daily measurements of Black Smoke, a quantity directly linked to black carbon (measured by aethalometers) and indirectly related to elemental carbon, have been made at many sites. The measurement issues associated with these techniques are evaluated in the context of UK measurements, making use of several sets of parallel data, with the aim of aiding the interpretation of network results. From the results available, the main conclusions are that the R & P 5400 instruments greatly under-read EC and total carbon (TC = OC + EC) at kerbside sites, probably due to the fact that the smaller particles are not sampled by the instrument; the R & P 5400 instrument is inherently difficult to characterise, so that all quantitative results need to be treated with caution; both aethalometer and Black Smoke (converted to black carbon) measurements can show reasonable agreement with elemental carbon results; and manual thermo-optical OC/EC results may under-read EC (and hence over-read OC), whether either transmittance or reflectance is used for the pyrolysis correction, and this effect is significant at rural sites.     

The Control of SO2 Dry Deposition on to Natural Surfaces by NH3 and its Effects on Regional Deposition

Two years of continuous measurements of SO₂deposition fluxes to moorland vegetation are reported. The mean flux of 2.8 ng SO₂ m^-2 s^-1 is regulated predominantly by surface resistance (r _c) which, even for wet surfaces, was seldom smaller than 100 s m^-1. The control of surface resistance is shown to be regulated by the ratio of NH₃SO₂ concentrations with an excess of NH₃ generating the small surface resistances for SO₂. A dynamic surface chemistry model is used to simulate the effects of NH₃ on SO₂ deposition flux and is able to capture responses to short-term changes in ambient concentrations of SO₂, NH₃ and meteorological conditions. The coupling between surface resistance and NH₃/SO₂ concentration ratios shows that the deposition velocity for SO₂ is regulated by the regional pollution climate. Recent long-term SO₂ flux measurements in a transect over Europe demonstrate the close link between NH₃/SO₂ concentrations and rc (SO₂). The deposition velocity for SO₂ is predicted to have increased with time since the 1970s and imply a 40% increase in v _d at a site at which the annual mean ambient SO₂ concentrations declined from 47 to 3 g m^-3 between 1973 and 1998.