Modelling the long-term soil response to atmospheric deposition at intensively monitored forest plots in Europe

The dynamic soil chemistry model SMART was applied to 121 intensive forest monitoring plots (mainly located in western and northern Europe) for which both element input (deposition) and element concentrations in the soil solution were available. After calibration of poorly known parameters, the model accurately simulated soil solution concentrations for most plots as indicated by goodness-of-fit measures, although some of the intra-annual variation especially in nitrate and aluminium concentrations could not be reproduced. Model evaluations of two emission-deposition scenarios (current legislation and maximum feasible reductions) for the period 1970-2030 show a strong reduction in sulphate concentrations between 1980 and 2000 in the soil due to the high reductions in sulphur emissions. However, current legislation hardly reduces future nitrogen concentrations, whereas maximum feasible reductions reduces them by more than half. Maximum feasible reductions are also more effective in increasing pH and reducing aluminium concentrations, mostly below ‘critical’ values.     

Assessing risk and adaptation options to fires and windstorms in European forestry

Risks can generally be described as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Using this framework, we evaluated the historical and future development of risk of fire and wind damage in European forestry at the national level. Fire risk is expected to increase, mainly as a consequence of an increase in fire hazard, defined as the Fire Weather Index in summer. Exposure, defined as forest area, is expected to increase slightly as a consequence of active afforestation and abandonment of marginal agricultural areas. Adaptation options to fire risk should therefore aim to decrease the vulnerability, where a change in tree species from conifers to broadleaves had most effect. Risk for wind damage in forests is expected to increase mainly as a consequence of increase in exposure (total growing stock) and vulnerability (defined by age class and tree species distribution). Projections of future wind climate indicate an increase in hazard (storminess) mainly over Western Europe. Adaptation options should aim to limit the increase in exposure and vulnerability. Only an increase in harvest level can stop the current build-up of growing stock, while at the same time it will lower vulnerability through the reduction of the share of old and vulnerable stands. Changing species from conifers to broadleaves helps to reduce vulnerability as well. Lowering vulnerability by decreasing the rotation length is only effective in combination with a high demand for wood. Due to data limitations, no forecast of future fire area or damaged timber amount by storms was possible.     

Assessing the Impacts of Long-Range Sulfur and Nitrogen Deposition on Arctic and Sub-Arctic Ecosystems

For more than a decade, anthropogenic sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition has been identified as a key pollutant in the Arctic. In this study new critical loads of acidity (S and N) were estimated for terrestrial ecosystems north of 60° latitude by applying the Simple Mass Balance (SMB) model using two critical chemical criteria (Al/Bc = 1 and ANC_le = 0). Critical loads were exceeded in large areas of northern Europe and the Norilsk region in western Siberia during the 1990s, with the more stringent criterion (ANC_le = 0) showing the larger area of exceedance. However, modeled deposition estimates indicate that mean concentrations of sulfur oxides and total S deposition within the Arctic almost halved between 1990 and 2000. The modeled exceeded area is much reduced when currently agreed emission reductions are applied, and almost disappears under the implementation of maximum technically feasible reductions by 2020. In northern North America there was no exceedance under any of the deposition scenarios applied. Modeled N deposition was less than 5 kg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ almost across the entire study area for all scenarios; and therefore empirical critical loads for the eutrophying impact of nitrogen are unlikely to be exceeded. The reduction in critical load exceedances is supported by observed improvements in surface water quality, whereas the observed extensive damage of terrestrial vegetation around the mining and smelter complexes in the area is mainly caused by direct impacts of air pollution and metals.     

Element fluxes through European forest ecosystems and their relationships with stand and site characteristics

This paper describes a European wide assessment of element budgets, using available data on deposition, meteorology and soil solution chemistry at 121 Intensive Monitoring plots. Input fluxes from the atmosphere were derived from fortnightly or monthly measurements of bulk deposition and throughfall, corrected for canopy uptake. Element outputs from the forest ecosystem were derived by multiplying fortnightly or monthly measurements of the soil solution composition at the bottom of the root zone with simulated unsaturated soil water fluxes. Despite the uncertainties in the calculated budgets, the results indicate that: (i) SO4 is still the dominant source of actual soil acidification despite the generally lower input of S than N, due to the different behaviour of S (near tracer) and N (strong retention); (ii) base cation removal due to man-induced soil acidification is limited; and (iii) Al release is high in areas with high S inputs and low base status.     

Critical Loads and Dynamic Modelling to Assess European Areas at Risk of Acidification and Eutrophication

European critical loads and novel dynamic modelling data have been compiled under the LRTAP Convention by the Coordination Centre for Effects. In 2000 9.8% of the pan-European and 20.8% of the EU25 ecosystem area were at risk of acidification. For eutrophication (nutrient N) the areas at risk were 30.1 and 71.2%, respectively. Dynamic modelling results reveal that 95% of the area at risk of acidification could recover by 2030 provided acid deposition is reduced according to present legislation. Insight into the timing of effects of exceedances of critical loads for nutrient N necessitates the further development of dynamic models.     

Assessment of the Water Balance of European Forests: A Model Study

As part of the UN-ECE Intensive Monitoring Program, data on precipitation, throughfall and soil solution concentrations are measured on a regular basis in approximately 300 forest stands. These data were used to construct element budgets for European forests. To construct such budgets drainage fluxes have to be modeled. In this paper, the research chain from model selection to data derivation and application of the selected model to 245 of the 300 sites is described. To select a suitable hydrological model the Cl^- balance method, two capacity models (a multi and a single layer version) and a Darcy model have been applied to two forest sites. The results indicate that drainage fluxes calculated with the Darcy model are more accurate than fluxes derived with the capacity model, in particular in situations where water availability is limited. The Darcy model was applied to the sites using a mixture of generic data and site data. Despite the use of generic data, the calculated drainage fluxes appear feasible. Median transpiration fluxes were 350 mm and the lowest values are found in northern Europe and highest values are found in central Europe. Median drainage fluxes were 150 mm yr^-1 with the highest values in areas with high rainfall. Uncertainty analyses indicate that the use of local instead of interpolated meteorological data leads to lower drainage fluxes at 70% of the sites. The median deviation in calculated drainage fluxes is 20 mm yr^-1. The use of local soil data had little impact on the calculated fluxes.     

Water balances in intensively monitored forest ecosystems in Europe

A soil hydrological model based on Darcy's law was used to calculate hydrological fluxes for 245 intensively monitored forest plots in Europe. Local measured input data for the model were rather limited and input was partly based on generic data. To obtain the best results, the model was calibrated on measured throughfall at the plots. Median transpiration fluxes are 350 mm; median leaching fluxes are 150 mm yr(-1) with the highest values in areas with high rainfall. Uncertainty analyses indicate that the use of local meteorological data instead of generic data leads to lower leaching fluxes at 70% of the plots due to an overestimation of the wind speed on basis of main meteorological stations. The underestimation of the leaching fluxes is confirmed by the median Cl fluxes which were slightly positive for the considered plots.     

European Critical Loads of Cadmium, Lead and Mercury and their Exceedances

Critical loads of cadmium, lead and mercury were computed by 18 countries of the LRTAP Convention. These national data were collated into a single database for the purpose of identifying sensitive areas in Europe. Computing exceedances, i.e. comparing the critical loads to atmospheric deposition, shows that cadmium was not a widespread risk in 2000, that the risk from lead deposition has decreased since 1990 but was still widespread in 2000, and that the risk from mercury remains high without much change from 1990 to 2000 in most of the countries.     

Dynamic Cost-Effective Reduction Strategies for Acidification in Europe: An Application to Ireland and the United Kingdom

This paper describes the application of an optimisation model for calculating cost-effective abatement strategies for the reduction of acidification in Europe while taking into account the dynamic character of soil acidification in a number of countries. Environmental constraints are defined in terms of soil quality indicators, e.g., pH, base saturation or the aluminium ion concentration in the soil solution within an optimisation model for transboundary air pollution.We present a case study for Ireland and the United Kingdom. Our results indicate that reduction of sulphur dioxide emission is more cost-effective than that of nitrogen oxides or ammonia. The reduction percentages for sulphur dioxide are highest, for two reasons: (i) marginal sulphur dioxide reduction costs are relatively low compared to marginal reduction costs of nitrogen oxides and ammonia and (ii) sulphur dioxide reduction is more effective in reducing acidification in physical terms than nitrogen oxides or ammonia abatement. Our dynamic analysis shows that a (fast) improvement of soil quality requires high emission reduction levels. These reduction levels are often higher than reduction levels that are typically deduced from the static critical loads approach. Once soil quality targets are reached, in our model, less stringent emission reductions are required to maintain the soil quality at a constant and good target level. Static critical load approaches that ignore dynamic aspects therefore may underestimate the emission reductions needed to achieve predefined soil quality targets.     

Comparison of land nitrogen budgets for European agriculture by various modeling approaches

A comparison of nitrogen (N) budgets for the year 2000 of agro-ecosystems is made for the EU 27 countries by four models with different complexity and data requirements, i.e. INTEGRATOR, IDEAg, MITERRA and IMAGE. The models estimate a comparable total N input in European agriculture, i.e. 23.3–25.7 Mton N yr⁻¹, but N uptake varies more, i.e. from 11.3 to 15.4 Mton N yr⁻¹ leading to total N surpluses varying from 10.4 to 13.2 Mton N yr⁻¹. The estimated overall variation at EU 27 is small for the emissions of ammonia (2.8–3.1 Mton N yr⁻¹) and nitrous oxide (0.33–0.43 Mton N yr⁻¹), but large for the sum of N leaching and runoff (2.7–6.3 Mton N yr⁻¹). Unlike the overall EU estimates, the difference in N output fluxes between models is large at regional scale. This is mainly determined by N inputs, differences being highest in areas with high livestock density.